The emergence of shallow easterly jets within QBO westerlies

A configuration of an idealized general circulation model has been obtained in which a deep, stratospheric, equatorial, westerly jet is established that is spontaneously and quasi-periodically disrupted by shallow easterly jets. Similar to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) observed in early 2016, meridional fluxes of wave activity are found to play a central role. The possible relevance of two feedback mechanisms to these disruptions is considered. The first involves the secondary circulation produced in the shear zones on the upper and lower flanks of the easterly jet. This is found to play a role in maintaining the aspect ratio of the emerging easterly jet. The second involves the organization of the eddy fluxes by the mean flow: the presence of a weak easterly anomaly within a tall, tropical, westerly jet is demonstrated to produce enhanced and highly focused wave activity fluxes that reinforce and strengthen the easterly anomalies. The eddies appear to be organized by the formation of strong potential vorticity gradients on the subtropical flanks of the easterly anomaly. Similar wave activity and potential vorticity structures are found in the ERA-Interim for the observed QBO disruption, indicating this second feedback was active then. European Research Council ACCI Grant Project 267760. IDEX Chaires d’Attractivité programme of l’Université Fédérale de Toulouse, Midi-Pyrénées. This work was partially supported by NASA GNSS Remote Sensing Science Team Grant NNX16AK37G. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

Airports at Risk: The Impact of Information Sources on Security Decisions

Security decisions in high risk organizations such as airports involve obtaining ongoing and frequent information about potential threats. Utilizing questionnaire survey data from a sample of airport employees in European Airports across the continent, we analyzed how both formal and informal sources of security information affect employee's decisions to comply with the security rules and directives. This led us to trace information network flows to assess its impact on the degree employees making security decisions comply or deviate with the prescribed security rules. The results of the multivariate analysis showed that security information obtained through formal and informal networks differentially determine if employee will comply or not with the rules. Information sources emanating from the informal network tends to encourage employees to be more flexible in their security decisions while formal sources lead to be more rigid with complying with rules and protocols. These results suggest that alongside the formal administrative structure of airports, there exists a diverse and pervasiveness set of informal communications networks that are a potent factor in determining airport security levels

(Correcting) misdiagnoses of asthma: A cost effectiveness analysis

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: The prevalence of physician-diagnosed-asthma has risen over the past three decades and misdiagnosis of asthma is potentially common. Objective: to determine whether a secondary-screening-program to establish a correct diagnosis of asthma in those who report a physician diagnosis of asthma is cost effective.Method: Randomly selected physician-diagnosed-asthmatic subjects from 8 Canadian cities were studied with an extensive diagnostic algorithm to rule-in, or rule-out, a correct diagnosis of asthma. Subjects in whom the diagnosis of asthma was excluded were followed up for 6-months and data on asthma medications and heath care utilization was obtained. Economic analysis was performed to estimate the incremental lifetime costs associated with secondary screening of previously diagnosed asthmatic subjects. Analysis was from the perspective of the Canadian healthcare system and is reported in Canadian dollars.Results: Of 540 randomly selected patients with physician diagnosed asthma 150 (28%; 95%CI 19-37%) did not have asthma when objectively studied. 71% of these misdiagnosed patients were on some asthma medications. Incorporating the incremental cost of secondary-screening for the diagnosis of asthma, we found that the average cost savings per 100 individuals screened was $35,141 (95$4,588-$69,278).Conclusion: Cost savings primarily resulted from lifetime costs of medication use averted in those who had been misdiagnosed.This work was funded by the Canadian Institute of Health Research, Canada and the University Of Ottawa Division Of Respiratory Medicine

Does self-monitoring reduce blood pressure? Meta-analysis with meta-regression of randomized controlled trials

Introduction. Self-monitoring of blood pressure (BP) is an increasingly common part of hypertension management. The objectives of this systematic review were to evaluate the systolic and diastolic BP reduction, and achievement of target BP, associated with self-monitoring. Methods. MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, database of abstracts of clinical effectiveness, the health technology assessment database, the NHS economic evaluation database, and the TRIP database were searched for studies where the intervention included self-monitoring of BP and the outcome was change in office/ambulatory BP or proportion with controlled BP. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Meta-analysis using a random effects model was combined with meta-regression to investigate heterogeneity in effect sizes. Results. A total of 25 eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (27 comparisons) were identified. Office systolic BP (20 RCTs, 21 comparisons, 5,898 patients) and diastolic BP (23 RCTs, 25 comparisons, 6,038 patients) were significantly reduced in those who self-monitored compared to usual care (weighted mean difference (WMD) systolic −3.82 mmHg (95% confidence interval −5.61 to −2.03), diastolic −1.45 mmHg (−1.95 to −0.94)). Self-monitoring increased the chance of meeting office BP targets (12 RCTs, 13 comparisons, 2,260 patients, relative risk = 1.09 (1.02 to 1.16)). There was significant heterogeneity between studies for all three comparisons, which could be partially accounted for by the use of additional co-interventions. Conclusion. Self-monitoring reduces blood pressure by a small but significant amount. Meta-regression could only account for part of the observed heterogeneity

Determinants of medication adherence to antihypertensive medications among a Chinese population using Morisky medication adherence scale

<b>Background and objectives</b> Poor adherence to medications is one of the major public health challenges. Only one-third of the population reported successful control of blood pressure, mostly caused by poor drug adherence. However, there are relatively few reports studying the adherence levels and their associated factors among Chinese patients. This study aimed to study the adherence profiles and the factors associated with antihypertensive drug adherence among Chinese patients.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> A cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient clinic located in the New Territories Region of Hong Kong. Adult patients who were currently taking at least one antihypertensive drug were invited to complete a self-administered questionnaire, consisting of basic socio-demographic profile, self-perceived health status, and self-reported medication adherence. The outcome measure was the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). Good adherence was defined as MMAS scores greater than 6 points (out of a total score of 8 points).<p></p> <b>Results</b> From 1114 patients, 725 (65.1%) had good adherence to antihypertensive agents. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted. Younger age, shorter duration of antihypertensive agents used, job status being employed, and poor or very poor self-perceived health status were negatively associated with drug adherence.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b> This study reported a high proportion of poor medication adherence among hypertensive subjects. Patients with factors associated with poor adherence should be more closely monitored to optimize their drug taking behavior

Nitrogen and sulphur management: challenges for organic sources in temperate agricultural systems

A current global trend towards intensification or specialization of agricultural enterprises has been accompanied by increasing public awareness of associated environmental consequences. Air and water pollution from losses of nutrients, such as nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S), are a major concern. Governments have initiated extensive regulatory frameworks, including various land use policies, in an attempt to control or reduce the losses. This paper presents an overview of critical input and loss processes affecting N and S for temperate climates, and provides some background to the discussion in subsequent papers evaluating specific farming systems. Management effects on potential gaseous and leaching losses, the lack of synchrony between supply of nutrients and plant demand, and options for optimizing the efficiency of N and S use are reviewed. Integration of inorganic and organic fertilizer inputs and the equitable re-distribution of nutrients from manure are discussed. The paper concludes by highlighting a need for innovative research that is also targeted to practical approaches for reducing N and S losses, and improving the overall synchrony between supply and demand

Patient allocations in general practice in case of patients' preferences for gender of doctor and their unavailability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In some countries every citizen has the right to obtain a designated general practitioner. However, each individual may have preferences that cannot be fulfilled due to shortages of some kind. The questions raised in this paper are: To what extent can we expect that preferences are fulfilled when the patients "compete" for entry on the lists of practitioners? What changes can we expect under changing conditions? A particular issue explored in the paper is when the majority of women prefer a female doctor and there is a shortage of female doctors.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>The analysis is done on the macro level by the so called gravity model and on the micro level by recent theories of benefit efficient population behaviour, partly developed by two of the authors. A major finding is that the number of patients wanting a doctor of the underrepresented gender is less important than the strength of their preferences as determining factor for the benefit efficient allocation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We were able to generate valuable insights to the questions asked and to the dynamics of benefit efficient allocations. The approach is quite general and can be applied in a variety of contexts.</p

The Incremental Cooperative Design of Preventive Healthcare Networks

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Soheil Davari, 'The incremental cooperative design of preventive healthcare networks', Annals of Operations Research, first published online 27 June 2017. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 27 June 2018. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-017-2569-1.In the Preventive Healthcare Network Design Problem (PHNDP), one seeks to locate facilities in a way that the uptake of services is maximised given certain constraints such as congestion considerations. We introduce the incremental and cooperative version of the problem, IC-PHNDP for short, in which facilities are added incrementally to the network (one at a time), contributing to the service levels. We first develop a general non-linear model of this problem and then present a method to make it linear. As the problem is of a combinatorial nature, an efficient Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS) algorithm is proposed to solve it. In order to gain insight into the problem, the computational studies were performed with randomly generated instances of different settings. Results clearly show that VNS performs well in solving IC-PHNDP with errors not more than 1.54%.Peer reviewe

Persistence of health inequalities in childhood injury in the UK: a population-based cohort study of children under 5

BACKGROUND: Injury is a significant cause of childhood death and can result in substantial long-term disability. Injuries are more common in children from socio-economically deprived families, contributing to health inequalities between the most and least affluent. However, little is known about how the relationship between injuries and deprivation has changed over time in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of all children under 5 registered in one of 495 UK general practices that contributed medical data to The Health Improvement Network database between 1990–2009. We estimated the incidence of fractures, burns and poisonings by age, sex, socio-economic group and calendar period and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing the least and most socio-economically deprived areas over time. Estimates of the UK annual burden of injuries and the excess burden attributable to deprivation were derived from incidence rates. RESULTS: The cohort of 979,383 children experienced 20,804 fractures, 15,880 burns and 10,155 poisonings, equating to an incidence of 75.8/10,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 74.8–76.9) for fractures, 57.9 (57.0–58.9) for burns and 37.3 (35.6–38.0) for poisonings. Incidence rates decreased over time for burns and poisonings and increased for fractures (p<0.001 test for trend for each injury). They were significantly higher in more deprived households (IRR test for trend p<0.001 for each injury type) and these gradients persisted over time. We estimate that 865 fractures, 3,763 burns and 3,043 poisonings could be prevented each year in the UK if incidence rates could be reduced to those of the most affluent areas. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of burns and poisonings declined between 1990 and 2009 but increased for fractures. Despite these changes, strong socio-economic inequalities persisted resulting in an estimated 9,000 additional medically-attended injuries per year in under-5s

Comparative Study of SVM Methods Combined with Voxel Selection for Object Category Classification on fMRI Data

BACKGROUND: Support vector machine (SVM) has been widely used as accurate and reliable method to decipher brain patterns from functional MRI (fMRI) data. Previous studies have not found a clear benefit for non-linear (polynomial kernel) SVM versus linear one. Here, a more effective non-linear SVM using radial basis function (RBF) kernel is compared with linear SVM. Different from traditional studies which focused either merely on the evaluation of different types of SVM or the voxel selection methods, we aimed to investigate the overall performance of linear and RBF SVM for fMRI classification together with voxel selection schemes on classification accuracy and time-consuming. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Six different voxel selection methods were employed to decide which voxels of fMRI data would be included in SVM classifiers with linear and RBF kernels in classifying 4-category objects. Then the overall performances of voxel selection and classification methods were compared. Results showed that: (1) Voxel selection had an important impact on the classification accuracy of the classifiers: in a relative low dimensional feature space, RBF SVM outperformed linear SVM significantly; in a relative high dimensional space, linear SVM performed better than its counterpart; (2) Considering the classification accuracy and time-consuming holistically, linear SVM with relative more voxels as features and RBF SVM with small set of voxels (after PCA) could achieve the better accuracy and cost shorter time. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present work provides the first empirical result of linear and RBF SVM in classification of fMRI data, combined with voxel selection methods. Based on the findings, if only classification accuracy was concerned, RBF SVM with appropriate small voxels and linear SVM with relative more voxels were two suggested solutions; if users concerned more about the computational time, RBF SVM with relative small set of voxels when part of the principal components were kept as features was a better choice