Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis

The risks confronted by grain and cotton farmers are of particular interest, given the changing role of the Government after passage of the 1996 Farm Act. With the shift toward less government intervention in the post-1996 Farm Act environment, a more sophisticated understanding of risk and risk management is important to help producers make better decisions in risky situations and to assist policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of different types of risk protection tools. In response, this report provides a rigorous, yet accessible, description of risk and risk management tools and strategies at the farm level. It also provides never-before-published data on farmers' assessments of the risks they face, their use of alternative risk management strategies, and the changes they would make if faced with financial difficulty. It also compares price risk across crops and time periods, and provides detailed information on yield variability.crop insurance, diversification, futures contracts, leasing, leveraging, liquidity, livestock insurance, marketing contracts, options contracts, production contracts, revenue insurance, risk, vertical integration, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

EOS MLS observations of dehydration in the 2004-2005 polar winters

We prove various estimates for the first eigenvalue of the magnetic Dirichlet Laplacian on a bounded domain in two dimensions. When the magnetic field is constant, we give lower and upper bounds in terms of geometric quantities of the domain. We furthermore prove a lower bound for the first magnetic Neumann eigenvalue in the case of constant field.Comment: 19 page

Macrophage activation by lipopolysaccharide, interferon-γ and interleukin-4: effect of fatty acid metabolism

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of interferon-γ and -β (IFN-γ, -β), interleukin-4 and -10 (IL-4, -10) and Hpopolysaccharide (LPS) on the metabolism and composition of phospholipid fatty acids in macrophages. Murine J774.2 macrophages were incubated with radiolabelled fatty acids and the appropriate stimulus and the incorporation and composition of the phospholipid classes was determined. IFN-γ and IL-4 specifically stimulated enhanced incorporation of [14C]-linoleic acid into the phosphatidytethanolamine fraction. IL-4 (in contrast to IFN-γ and LPS) reduced incorporation of [14C]- arachidonic acid into phosphatidylinositol. Incubation of J774.2 cells with linoleic acid significantly increased TNFα and nitric oxide production; arachidonic acid enhanced TNFα production but reduced nitric oxide production. It is concluded that IFN-γ, IL-4 and IL-10 may differentially regulate macrophage activation via effects on the metabolism of polyunsaturated fatty acids

Predicted rocket and shuttle effects on stratospheric ozone

The major chemical effluents of either solid- or liquid-fueled rockets that can potentially perturb stratospheric ozone include chlorine compounds (HCl), nitrogen compounds (NO(x)), and hydrogen compounds (H2 and H2O). Radicals (Cl, ClO, H, OH, HO2, NO, and NO2) formed directly or indirectly from rocket exhaust can cause the catalytic destruction of ozone. Other exhaust compounds that could presumably lead to ozone destruction either by direct reaction with ozone or by providing a surface for heterogeneous processes include the particulates Al2O3, ice, and soot. These topics are discussed in terms of the possible effects of rocket exhausts on stratospheric ozone

Measurement of complex fragments and clues to the entropy production from 42-137-MeV/nucleon Ar + Au

Intermediate-rapidity fragments with A=1-14 emitted from 42-137-MeV/nucleon Ar + Au have been measured. Evidence is presented that these fragments arise from a common moving source. Entropy values are extracted from the mass distributions by use of quantum statistical and Hauser-Feshbach theories. The extracted entropy values of S/A≈2-2.4 are much smaller than the values expected from measured deuteron-to-proton ratios, but are still considerably higher than theoretically predicted values

Temperature dependent absorption cross-sections of HNO3 and N2O5

Absorption cross-sections for HNO3 and N2O5 have been measured in the wavelength region 220-450 nm, using a dual beam diode array spectrometer with a spectral resolution of 0.3 nm. The results for both compounds are in good agreement with recommended values at room temperature. However, the cross-sections of both HNO3 and N2O5 show a marked reduction with decreasing temperature in the range 295-233 K. The calculated photolysis rate of HNO3 at the low temperatures and high solar zenith angles characteristic of the polar winter and spring is significantly lower than previously estimated

Search and modelling of remnant radio galaxies in the LOFAR Lockman Hole field

Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics. Reproduced with permission from Astronomy & Astrophysics, © 2017 ESO.The phase of radio galaxy evolution after the jets have switched off, often referred to as the remnant phase, is poorly understood and very few sources in this phase are known. In this work we present an extensive search for remnant radio galaxies in the Lockman Hole, a well-studied extragalactic field. We create mock catalogues of low-power radio galaxies based on Monte Carlo simulations to derive first-order predictions of the fraction of remnants in radio flux limited samples for comparison with our Lockman-Hole sample. We have combined LOFAR observations at 150 MHz with public surveys at higher frequencies to perform a complete selection and have used, for the first time, a combination of spectral criteria (e.g. the classical ultra-steep spectral index and high spectral curvature) as well as morphological criteria (e.g. low radio core prominence and relaxed shapes). Mock catalogues of radio galaxies are created based on existing spectral and dynamical evolution models combined with observed source properties. We have identified 23 candidate remnant radio galaxies which cover a variety of morphologies and spectral characteristics. We suggest that these different properties are related to different stages of the remnant evolution. We find that ultra-steep spectrum remnants represent only a fraction of our remnant sample suggesting a very rapid luminosity evolution of the radio plasma. Results from mock catalogues demonstrate the importance of dynamical evolution in the remnant phase of low-power radio galaxies to obtain fractions of remnant sources consistent with our observations. Moreover, these results confirm that ultra-steep spectrum remnants represent only a subset of the entire population ($\sim$50%) when frequencies higher than 1400 MHz are not included in the selection process, and that they are biased towards old ages.Peer reviewe

Evaluation of Passing Process on Two-Lane Rural Highways in Spain with New Methodology Based on Video Data

Drivers need sufficient passing sight distance (PSD) to pass slower vehicles with safety. This distance can help to improve traffic operation on two-way, two-lane highways. Existing models propose different values of PSD because of different assumptions. In only some cases were these models based on field data of passing maneuvers. This research proposed the design of a methodology to observe passing maneuvers on existing highways with the help of six video cameras installed at a fixed point next to passing sections. The use of more cameras allows complete registration of trajectories along the entire passing zone, with uniform image resolution. The methodology was applied to register a sample of 234 maneuvers on four passing zones. Trajectories of 58 maneuvers were completely described and analyzed with specific restitution software. Results were compared with those from existing PSD models. The distances traveled proposed by the AASHTO model on the left lane were (a) similar to average observed distances when the passed vehicle was one truck and (b) between 50 and 100 m higher when one passenger car was passed. Higher differences, greater than 100 m, were found between measured data and the PSD model (published previously), especially at high design speeds. The observed average speed difference between passing and impeding vehicles was significantly higher than that in any model. Variables with the strongest influence on the time and distance traveled on the opposing lane were the type and speed of the passed vehicle and the length of the passing zone. Left-lane time and distance increase with this length.Llorca Garcia, C.; García García, A. (2011). Evaluation of Passing Process on Two-Lane Rural Highways in Spain with New Methodology Based on Video Data. Transportation Research Record. 2262:42-51. doi:10.3141/2262-05S42512262Farah, H., Bekhor, S., & Polus, A. (2009). Risk evaluation by modeling of passing behavior on two-lane rural highways. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 41(4), 887-894. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.05.006Rilett, L. R., Hutchinson, B. G., & Whitney, M. (1990). Mechanics of the passing maneuver and the impact of large trucks. Transportation Research Part A: General, 24(2), 121-128. doi:10.1016/0191-2607(90)90019-3Wang, Y., & Cartmell, M. P. (1998). New Model for Passing Sight Distance on Two-Lane Highways. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 124(6), 536-545. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-947x(1998)124:6(536)Polus, A., Livneh, M., & Frischer, B. (2000). Evaluation of the Passing Process on Two-Lane Rural Highways. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1701(1), 53-60. doi:10.3141/1701-07Carlson, P., Miles, J., & Johnson, P. (2006). Daytime High-Speed Passing Maneuvers Observed on Rural Two-Lane, Two-Way Highway: Findings and Implications. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1961, 9-15. doi:10.3141/1961-02Harwood, D. W., Gilmore, D. K., & Richard, K. R. (2010). Criteria for Passing Sight Distance for Roadway Design and Marking. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2195(1), 36-46. doi:10.3141/2195-0

Remnant radio-loud AGN in the Herschel-ATLAS field

Only a small fraction of observed active galactic nuclei (AGN) display large-scale radio emission associated with jets, yet these radio-loud AGN have become increasingly important in models of galaxy evolution. In determining the dynamics and energetics of the radio sources over cosmic time, a key question concerns what happens when their jets switch off. The resulting ‘remnant' radio-loud AGN have been surprisingly evasive in past radio surveys, and therefore statistical information on the population of radio-loud AGN in their dying phase is limited. In this paper, with the recent developments of Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) and the Very Large Array, we are able to provide a systematically selected sample of remnant radio-loud AGN in the Herschel-ATLAS field. Using a simple core-detection method, we constrain the upper limit on the fraction of remnants in our radio-loud AGN sample to 9 per cent, implying that the extended lobe emission fades rapidly once the core/jets turn off. We also find that our remnant sample has a wide range of spectral indices (−1.5 ⩽ α1400150 ⩽ −0.5), confirming that the lobes of some remnants may possess flat spectra at low frequencies just as active sources do. We suggest that, even with the unprecedented sensitivity of LOFAR, our sample may still only contain the youngest of the remnant population