Resilience Thinking and Structured Decision Making in Social-Ecological Systems

Natural resource management may be improved by synthesizing approaches for framing and addressing complex social-ecological issues. This dissertation examines how structured decision making processes, including adaptive management, can incorporate resilience thinking. Structured decision making is a process for establishing a solid understanding of the problem, values, management options, and potential consequences. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making in which uncertainty is reduced for iterative decisions through designed monitoring and review. Resilience thinking can help conceptualize complex social-ecological systems and draws attention to the risks of managing for narrowly-focused objectives. This dissertation provides practical advice to managers and can facilitate discussions regarding how to make wise decisions in complex social-ecological systems. Specifically, I explore how an iterative structured decision making process can contribute to the resilience of an oak forest in southeastern Nebraska. Chapter 2 discusses how a structured decision making process can emphasize principles of resilience thinking. I present a suite of management recommendations, drawing on information from practitioners’ guides and using oak forest conservation as a case study. Chapter 3 demonstrates how oak forest models can reflect elements of resilience thinking and be used to identify optimal policies. I quantify a state-and-transition model into a Markov decision process by establishing transition probabilities based on resilience assumptions and setting the time horizon (infinite), discount factor, and reward function. Limitations are discussed, including that the optimal policy is sensitive to uncertainty about aspects of the Markov decision process. Chapter 4 provides a practical method for incorporating adaptive management projects into State Wildlife Action Plans, in part based on experience with conservation planning in Nebraska. I present a dichotomous key for identifying when to use adaptive management and a basic introduction to developing adaptive management projects are presented. Chapter 5 describes an initial effort to reduce uncertainty for oak forest conservation in southeastern Nebraska. I use multimodel inference to explore different hypotheses about what environmental and management variables are correlated with oak seedling abundance. The results indicate that the number of large oaks is an important factor. I discuss adaptive management as a potential means for further investigating management effects. Chapter 6 synthesizes the dissertation by considering the management implications for oak forest conservation in southeastern Nebraska, identifying general challenges and limitations, presenting methods for improving the framework, and returning to the broader goal of implementing the social-ecological systems paradigm. Adviser: Craig R. Alle

No Difference in Transverse Abdominis Activation Ratio between Healthy and Asymptomatic Low Back Pain Patients during Therapeutic Exercise

Dysfunction of the transverse abdominis (TrA) has been associated with LBP. Several therapeutic exercises are prescribed to help target the TrA. Rehabilitative ultrasound imaging (RUSI) is used to capture activation of the TrA during exercise. The purpose was to examine TrA activation during the ADIM and quadruped exercises between healthy and nonsymptomatic LBP patients. We instructed the subjects how to perform the exercises and measured muscle thickness of the TrA at rest and during the exercises using RUSI. This allowed us to calculate TrA activation ratio during these exercises. We found no significant differences between activation ratios of the two groups during either exercise; however TrA activation during the ADIM was higher than the quadruped exercise. These exercises were capable of activating the TrA, which may be in part due to the verbal instruction they received. These exercises could be used during prevention or rehabilitation programs, since the TrA is activated

Enamel-based mark performance for marking Chinese mystery snail \u3ci\u3eBellamya chinensis\u3c/i\u3e

The exoskeleton of gastropods provides a convenient surface for carrying marks, and in the interest of improving future marking methods our laboratory assessed the performance of an enamel paint. The endurance of the paint was also compared to other marking methods assessed in the past. We marked the shells of 30 adult Chinese mystery snails Bellamya chinensis and held them in an aquarium for 181 days. We observed no complete degradation of any enamel-paint mark during the 181 days. The enamel-paint mark was superior to a nail-polish mark, which lasted a median of 100 days. Enamel-paint marks also have a lower rate of loss (0.00 month-1 181 days) than plastic bee tags (0.01 month-1, 57 days), gouache paint (0.07 month-1, 18.5 days), or car body paint from studies found in scientific literature. Legibility of enamelpaint marks had a median lifetime of 102 days. The use of enamel paint on the shells of gastropods is a viable option for studies lasting up to 6 months. Furthermore, visits to a capture-mark-recapture site 1 year after application of enamel-paint marks on B. chinensis shells produced several individuals on which the enamel paint was still visible, although further testing is required to clarify durability over longer periods

Intellectual enrichment and genetic modifiers of cognition and brain volume in Huntington's disease

An important step towards the development of treatments for cognitive impairment in ageing and neurodegenerative diseases is to identify genetic and environmental modifiers of cognitive function and understand the mechanism by which they exert an effect. In Huntington’s disease, the most common autosomal dominant dementia, a small number of studies have identified intellectual enrichment, i.e. a cognitively stimulating lifestyle and genetic polymorphisms as potential modifiers of cognitive function. The aim of our study was to further investigate the relationship and interaction between genetic factors and intellectual enrichment on cognitive function and brain atrophy in Huntington’s disease. For this purpose, we analysed data from Track-HD, a multi-centre longitudinal study in Huntington’s disease gene carriers and focused on the role of intellectual enrichment (estimated at baseline) and the genes FAN1, MSH3, BDNF, COMT and MAPT in predicting cognitive decline and brain atrophy. We found that carrying the 3a allele in the MSH3 gene had a positive effect on global cognitive function and brain atrophy in multiple cortical regions, such that 3a allele carriers had a slower rate of cognitive decline and atrophy compared with non-carriers, in agreement with its role in somatic instability. No other genetic predictor had a significant effect on cognitive function and the effect of MSH3 was independent of intellectual enrichment. Intellectual enrichment also had a positive effect on cognitive function; participants with higher intellectual enrichment, i.e. those who were better educated, had higher verbal intelligence and performed an occupation that was intellectually engaging, had better cognitive function overall, in agreement with previous studies in Huntington’s disease and other dementias. We also found that intellectual enrichment interacted with the BDNF gene, such that the positive effect of intellectual enrichment was greater in Met66 allele carriers than non-carriers. A similar relationship was also identified for changes in whole brain and caudate volume; the positive effect of intellectual enrichment was greater for Met66 allele carriers, rather than for non-carriers. In summary, our study provides additional evidence for the beneficial role of intellectual enrichment and carrying the 3a allele in MSH3 in cognitive function in Huntington’s disease and their effect on brain structure

Social Safety Nets for Food and Nutritional Security in India

This paper brings together existing literature on the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNRGEA) and the Public Distribution System (PDS) in India, offering a narrative review of the evidence on impacts on food security, health and nutrition of beneficiaries. Both programs operate on a large scale and have the capacity to impact the factors leading to undernutrition. It is evident that despite the deficiencies in implementation, both the MGNREGA and the PDS are inclusive and reach the poor and the marginalized who are likely to also experience greater undernutrition and poor health. Data challenges have however prevented researchers from conducting studies that assess the ultimate impact of these two large-scale programs on health and nutrition. The evidence that exists suggests largely positive impacts indicating a clear potential to make these programs more nutrition sensitive not just by incorporating elements that would explicitly address nutritional concerns but also by directing specific attention to innovations that strengthen critical complementarities and synergies that exist between the two programs

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact.

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a "Green List of Species" (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species' progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species' viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species' recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard

Identification of genetic variants associated with Huntington's disease progression: a genome-wide association study

Background Huntington's disease is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the huntingtin gene, HTT. Age at onset has been used as a quantitative phenotype in genetic analysis looking for Huntington's disease modifiers, but is hard to define and not always available. Therefore, we aimed to generate a novel measure of disease progression and to identify genetic markers associated with this progression measure. Methods We generated a progression score on the basis of principal component analysis of prospectively acquired longitudinal changes in motor, cognitive, and imaging measures in the 218 indivduals in the TRACK-HD cohort of Huntington's disease gene mutation carriers (data collected 2008–11). We generated a parallel progression score using data from 1773 previously genotyped participants from the European Huntington's Disease Network REGISTRY study of Huntington's disease mutation carriers (data collected 2003–13). We did a genome-wide association analyses in terms of progression for 216 TRACK-HD participants and 1773 REGISTRY participants, then a meta-analysis of these results was undertaken. Findings Longitudinal motor, cognitive, and imaging scores were correlated with each other in TRACK-HD participants, justifying use of a single, cross-domain measure of disease progression in both studies. The TRACK-HD and REGISTRY progression measures were correlated with each other (r=0·674), and with age at onset (TRACK-HD, r=0·315; REGISTRY, r=0·234). The meta-analysis of progression in TRACK-HD and REGISTRY gave a genome-wide significant signal (p=1·12 × 10−10) on chromosome 5 spanning three genes: MSH3, DHFR, and MTRNR2L2. The genes in this locus were associated with progression in TRACK-HD (MSH3 p=2·94 × 10−8 DHFR p=8·37 × 10−7 MTRNR2L2 p=2·15 × 10−9) and to a lesser extent in REGISTRY (MSH3 p=9·36 × 10−4 DHFR p=8·45 × 10−4 MTRNR2L2 p=1·20 × 10−3). The lead single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TRACK-HD (rs557874766) was genome-wide significant in the meta-analysis (p=1·58 × 10−8), and encodes an aminoacid change (Pro67Ala) in MSH3. In TRACK-HD, each copy of the minor allele at this SNP was associated with a 0·4 units per year (95% CI 0·16–0·66) reduction in the rate of change of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) Total Motor Score, and a reduction of 0·12 units per year (95% CI 0·06–0·18) in the rate of change of UHDRS Total Functional Capacity score. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age of onset. Interpretation The multidomain progression measure in TRACK-HD was associated with a functional variant that was genome-wide significant in our meta-analysis. The association in only 216 participants implies that the progression measure is a sensitive reflection of disease burden, that the effect size at this locus is large, or both. Knockout of Msh3 reduces somatic expansion in Huntington's disease mouse models, suggesting this mechanism as an area for future therapeutic investigation