Rock glaciers as water stores in the Bolivian Andes: An assessment of their hydrological importance

Journal ArticleCopyright © 2015 University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine ResearchWater scarcity is a growing issue for high altitude arid countries like Bolivia, where serious water resource concerns exist because of climate change and population growth. In this study we use a recent Bolivian rock glacier inventory (Rangecroft et al., 2014) to estimate the water equivalent storage of these understudied cryospheric reserves. This paper shows that Bolivian rock glaciers currently store between 11.7 and 137 million cubic meters of water. Rock glacier water equivalents are compared to corresponding ice glacier water equivalent to allow an assessment of the hydrological importance of rock glaciers as water stores in this water scarce region. It can be seen that in the densely glaciated Cordillera Real (15°-16°S) rock glaciers form a small component of mountain water stores; however, along the Cordillera Occidental (17°-22°S), where ice glaciers are absent, rock glaciers are a more important part of the cryospheric water store, suggesting that they could be important for local water management. This is the first time that the water equivalence of the Bolivian rock glacier store has been quantified and is a first step toward assessing the contribution and importance of alternative high altitude water sources.NER

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Peer reviewe

Landslide inventories for climate impacts research in the European Alps

Author's manuscript version. The final published article is available from the publisher via: doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.09.005Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Landslides present a geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions, threatening life, infrastructure and property. Here we present the development of a new regional landslide inventory (RI) for the European Alps. This database provides a substantial temporal and spatial picture of landsliding in the Alps, with particular focus on the Swiss and French Alps. We use segmented models to evaluate recording bias in the temporal record. We use scaling relationships to calculate landslide area based on a given volume for similar types of landslide; with the result of this being that 9.5% of the landslides recorded in the RI now have area data recorded. These landslide area data are then used to examine the log-linear trend, which exists between landslide area and frequency in inventories. We show that this relationship is present for this historical dataset; however, none of the individual databases, nor a unification of these, contain a complete record with the small and larger landslides being recorded more consistently. The use of segmented models on the temporal distribution of landslides in the RI shows that the post-1970 portion of the database is more reliable, highlighted through an improved power-law relationship, although the frequency of medium sized landslides is still underestimated. We show that creating a unified database (RI) can increase the reliability of datasets and consistency in recording for the use by researchers for attribution and detection studies.Lloyds of Londo

Dynamic multifactor hubs interact transiently with sites of active transcription in Drosophila embryos.

The regulation of transcription requires the coordination of numerous activities on DNA, yet how transcription factors mediate these activities remains poorly understood. Here, we use lattice light-sheet microscopy to integrate single-molecule and high-speed 4D imaging in developing Drosophila embryos to study the nuclear organization and interactions of the key transcription factors Zelda and Bicoid. In contrast to previous studies suggesting stable, cooperative binding, we show that both factors interact with DNA with surprisingly high off-rates. We find that both factors form dynamic subnuclear hubs, and that Bicoid binding is enriched within Zelda hubs. Remarkably, these hubs are both short lived and interact only transiently with sites of active Bicoid-dependent transcription. Based on our observations, we hypothesize that, beyond simply forming bridges between DNA and the transcription machinery, transcription factors can organize other proteins into hubs that transiently drive multiple activities at their gene targets.Editorial noteThis article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter)

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Water resources in many of the world’s arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0 °C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America’s fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions

Rock glaciers in central Patagonia

Active rock glaciers are ice and debris-cored landforms common in cold arid mountains. They have not been widely described in the Patagonian Andes of southern South America and here we provide the first rock glacier inventory for the Jeinimeni region to the east of the contemporary North Patagonian Icefield. Detailed analysis of available satellite imagery and fieldwork demonstrates the presence of 89 rock glaciers across the study region, covering a total of 14.18 km2. Elevation is the primary control on rock glacier distribution with 89% existing between 1600 and 1900 m.a.s.l. Aspect also plays a significant role on rock glacier formation with 80% preferentially developed on southerly slopes receiving lower solar insolation

Nonempirical Density Functionals Investigated for Jellium: Spin-Polarized Surfaces, Spherical Clusters, and Bulk Linear Response

Earlier tests show that the Tao-Perdew-Staroverov-Scuseria (TPSS) nonempirical meta-generalized gradient approximation (meta-GGA) for the exchange-correlation energy yields more accurate surface energies than the local spin density (LSD) approximation for spin-unpolarized jellium. In this study, work functions and surface energies of a jellium metal in the presence of ``internal'' and external magnetic fields are calculated with LSD, Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) GGA, and TPSS meta-GGA and its predecessor, the nearly nonempirical Perdew-Kurth-Zupan-Blaha (PKZB) meta-GGA, using self-consistent LSD orbitals and densities. The results show that: (i) For normal bulk densities, the surface correlation energy is the same in TPSS as in PBE, as it should be since TPSS strives to represent a self-correlation correction to PBE; (ii) Normal surface density profiles can be scaled uniformly to the low-density or strong-interaction limit, and TPSS provides an estimate for that limit that is consistent with (but probably more accurate than) other estimates; (iii) For both normal and low densities, TPSS provides the same description of surface magnetism as PBE, suggesting that these approximations may be generally equivalent for magnetism. The energies of jellium spheres with up to 106 electrons are calculated using density functionals and compared to those obtained with Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo data, including our estimate for the fixed-node correction. Finally we calculate the linear response of bulk jellium using these density functionals, and find that not only LSD but also PBE GGA and TPSS meta-GGA yield a linear-response in good agreement with that of the Quantum Monte Carlo method, for wavevectors of the perturbing external potential up to twice the Fermi wavevector.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figure