Improved model identification for non-linear systems using a random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach

In non-linear system identification, the available observed data are conventionally partitioned into two parts: the training data that are used for model identification and the test data that are used for model performance testing. This sort of 'hold-out' or 'split-sample' data partitioning method is convenient and the associated model identification procedure is in general easy to implement. The resultant model obtained from such a once-partitioned single training dataset, however, may occasionally lack robustness and generalisation to represent future unseen data, because the performance of the identified model may be highly dependent on how the data partition is made. To overcome the drawback of the hold-out data partitioning method, this study presents a new random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach to produce less biased or preferably unbiased models. The basic idea and the associated procedure are as follows. First, generate K training datasets (and also K validation datasets), using a K-fold random subsampling method. Secondly, detect significant model terms and identify a common model structure that fits all the K datasets using a new proposed common model selection approach, called the multiple orthogonal search algorithm. Finally, estimate and refine the model parameters for the identified common-structured model using a multifold parameter estimation method. The proposed method can produce robust models with better generalisation performance

Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Background: Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective: The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts. Data & Methods: The proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+. Results: Illustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-average procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males. Conclusion: We find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification

Associated charged Higgs and W boson production in the MSSM at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

We investigate the viability of observing charged Higgs bosons (H^+/-) produced in association with W bosons at the CERN Large Hadron Collider, using the leptonic decay H^+ -> tau^+ nu_tau and hadronic W-decay, within different scenarios of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with both real and complex parameters. Performing a parton level study we show how the irreducible Standard Model background from W+2 jets can be controlled by applying appropriate cuts and find that the size of a possible signal depends on the cuts needed to suppress QCD backgrounds and misidentifications. In the standard maximal mixing scenario of the MSSM we find a viable signal for large tan(beta) and intermediate H^+/- masses (~m_t) when using optimistic cuts whereas for more pessimistic ones we only find a viable signal for very large tan(beta) (>~50). We have also investigated a special class of MSSM scenarios with large mass-splittings among the heavy Higgs bosons where the cross-section can be resonantly enhanced by factors up to one hundred, with a strong dependence on the CP-violating phases. Even so we find that the signal after cuts remains small except for small masses (~< m_t) with optimistic cuts. Finally, in all the scenarios we have investigated we have only found small CP-asymmetries.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures, version to appear in Euro. Phys. J.

Density functional method for nonequilibrium electron transport

We describe an ab initio method for calculating the electronic structure, electronic transport, and forces acting on the atoms, for atomic scale systems connected to semi-infinite electrodes and with an applied voltage bias. Our method is based on the density functional theory (DFT) as implemented in the well tested Siesta approach (which uses non-local norm-conserving pseudopotentials to describe the effect of the core electrons, and linear combination of finite-range numerical atomic orbitals to describe the valence states). We fully deal with the atomistic structure of the whole system, treating both the contact and the electrodes on the same footing. The effect of the finite bias (including selfconsistency and the solution of the electrostatic problem) is taken into account using nonequilibrium Green's functions. We relate the nonequilibrium Green's function expressions to the more transparent scheme involving the scattering states. As an illustration, the method is applied to three systems where we are able to compare our results to earlier ab initio DFT calculations or experiments, and we point out differences between this method and existing schemes. The systems considered are: (1) single atom carbon wires connected to aluminum electrodes with extended or finite cross section, (2) single atom gold wires, and finally (3) large carbon nanotube systems with point defects.Comment: 18 pages, 23 figure

Configuration-interaction calculations of positron binding to group-II elements

The configuration-interaction (CI) method is applied to the study of positronic magnesium (e+Mg), positronic calcium (e+Ca), and positronic strontium (e+Sr). The CI expansion was seen to converge slowly with respect to Lmax, the maximum angular momentum of any orbital used to construct the CI basis. Despite doing explicit calculations with Lmax=10, extrapolation corrections to the binding energies for the Lmax&rarr;&infin; limit were substantial in the case of e+Ca (25%) and e+Sr (50%). The extrapolated binding energies were 0.0162 hartree for e+Mg, 0.0165 hartree for e+Ca, and 0.0101 hartree for e+Sr. The static-dipole polarizabilities for the neutral parent atoms were computed as a by-product, giving 71.7a03, 162a03, and 204a03 for Mg, Ca, and Sr, respectively

Combined endoscopic and laparoscopic surgery (CELS) for early colon cancer in high-risk patients

Background Local excision of early colon cancers could be an option in selected patients with high risk of complications and no sign of lymph node metastasis (LNM). The primary aim was to assess feasibility in high-risk patients with early colon cancer treated with Combined Endoscopic and Laparoscopic Surgery (CELS). Methods A non-randomized prospective feasibility study including 25 patients with Performance Status score ≥ 1 and/or American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ 3, and clinical Union of International Cancer Control stage-1 colon cancer suitable for CELS resection. The primary outcome was failure of CELS resection, defined as either: Incomplete resection (R1/R2), local recurrence within 3 months, complication related to CELS within 30 days (Clavien–Dindo grade ≥ 3), death within 30 days or death within 90 days due to complications to surgery. Results Fifteen patients with clinical T1 (cT1) and ten with clinical T2 (cT2) colon cancer and without suspicion of metastases were included. Failure occurred in two patients due to incomplete resections. Histopathological examination classified seven patients as having pT1, nine as pT2, six as pT3 adenocarcinomas, and three as non-invasive tumors. In three patients, the surgical strategy was changed intraoperatively to conventional colectomy due to tumor location or size. Median length of stay was 1 day. Seven patients had completion colectomy performed due to histological high-risk factors. None had LNM. Conclusions In selected patients, CELS resection was feasible, and could spare some patients large bowel resection

Search for bottom squarks in pbarp collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

We report on a search for bottom squarks produced in pbarp collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV using the D0 detector at Fermilab. Bottom squarks are assumed to be produced in pairs and to decay to the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) and a b quark with branching fraction of 100%. The LSP is assumed to be the lightest neutralino and stable. We set limits on the production cross section as a function of bottom squark mass and LSP mass.Comment: 5 pages, Latex. submitted 3-12-1999 to PRD - Rapid Communicatio

Improved W boson mass measurement with the D0 detector

We have measured the W boson mass using the D0 detector and a data sample of 82 pb^-1 from the Tevatron collider. This measurement used W -> e nu decays, where the electron is close to a boundary of a central electromagnetic calorimeter module. Such 'edge' electrons have not been used in any previous D0 analysis, and represent a 14% increase in the W boson sample size. For these electrons, new response and resolution parameters are determined, and revised backgrounds and underlying event energy flow measurements are made. When the current measurement is combined with previous D0 W boson mass measurements, we obtain M_W = 80.483 +/- 0.084 GeV. The 8% improvement from the previous D0 measurement is primarily due to the improved determination of the response parameters for non-edge electrons using the sample of Z bosons with non-edge and edge electrons.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. D; 20 pages, 18 figures, 9 table

Evidence of Color Coherence Effects in W+jets Events from ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV

We report the results of a study of color coherence effects in ppbar collisions based on data collected by the D0 detector during the 1994-1995 run of the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, at a center of mass energy sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV. Initial-to-final state color interference effects are studied by examining particle distribution patterns in events with a W boson and at least one jet. The data are compared to Monte Carlo simulations with different color coherence implementations and to an analytic modified-leading-logarithm perturbative calculation based on the local parton-hadron duality hypothesis.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. Submitted to Physics Letters

Modification of forests by people means only 40% of remaining forests have high ecosystem integrity

Many global environmental agendas, including halting biodiversity loss, reversing land degradation, and limiting climate change, depend upon retaining forests with high ecological integrity, yet the scale and degree of forest modification remain poorly quantified and mapped. By integrating data on observed and inferred human pressures and an index of lost connectivity, we generate a globally consistent, continuous index of forest condition as determined by the degree of anthropogenic modification. Globally, only 17.4 million km2 of forest (40.5%) has high landscape-level integrity (mostly found in Canada, Russia, the Amazon, Central Africa, and New Guinea) and only 27% of this area is found in nationally designated protected areas. Of the forest inside protected areas, only 56% has high landscape-level integrity. Ambitious policies that prioritize the retention of forest integrity, especially in the most intact areas, are now urgently needed alongside current efforts aimed at halting deforestation and restoring the integrity of forests globally