"Making Safety Happen" Through Probabilistic Risk Assessment at NASA

NASA is using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as one of the tools in its Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) tool belt to identify and quantify risks associated with human spaceflight. This paper discusses some of the challenges and benefits associated with developing and using PRA for NASA human space programs. Some programs have entered operation prior to developing a PRA, while some have implemented PRA from the start of the program. It has been observed that the earlier a design change is made in the concept or design phase, the less impact it has on cost and schedule. Not finding risks until the operation phase yields much costlier design changes and major delays, which can result in discussions of just accepting the risk. Risk contributors identified by PRA are not just associated with hardware failures. They include but are not limited to crew fatality due to medical causes, the environment the vehicle and crew are exposed to, the software being used, and the reliability of the crew performing required actions. Some programs have entered operation prior to developing a PRA, and while PRA can still provide a benefit for operations and future design trades, the benefit of implementing PRA from the start of the program provides the added benefit of informing design and reducing risk early in program development. Currently, NASAs International Space Station (ISS) program is in its 20th year of on-orbit operations around the Earth and has several new programs in the design phase preparing to enter the operation phase all of which have active (or living) PRAs. These programs incorporate PRA as part of their Risk-Informed, Decision-Making (RIDM) process. For new NASA human spaceflight programs discussion begins with mission concept, establishing requirements, forming the PRA team, and continues through the design cycles into the operational phase. Several examples of PRA related applications and observed lessons are included

A Real-Time Ultrasonic Imaging System (ARIS) for Manual Inspection of Aircraft Composite Structures

Inspection of aircraft composite structures at field site facilities (air bases) is routinely performed using manual ultrasonic testing (UT) techniques. Using these techniques, the examiner detects and sizes defects such as disbonds and delaminations by monitoring and interpreting A-scan waveform signals on a UT instrument display screen. Manual probe manipula- tion permits maximum scanning flexibility and optimization of the ultrasonic signal response by the examiner using manual motions not possible with mechanized scanners. However, the examiner also must be responsible for instrument calibration, signal interpretation, documentation of inspection results, and completeness of coverage. The data reviewer must be able to validate instrument calibration and completeness of coverage, confirm signal interpretation, and compare current UT results to those obtained during previous inspections

Systematic Study on Fluorine-doping Dependence of Superconducting and Normal State Properties in LaFePO1-xFx

We have investigated the fluorine-doping dependence of lattice constants, transports and specific heat for polycrystalline LaFePO1-xFx. F doping slightly and monotonically decreases the in-plane lattice parameter. In the normal state, electrical resistivity at low temperature is proportional to the square of temperature and the electronic specific heat coefficient has large value, indicating the existence of moderate electron-electron correlation in this system. Hall coefficient has large magnitude, and shows large temperature dependence, indicating the low carrier density and multiple carriers in this system. Temperature dependence of the upper critical field suggests that the system is a two gap superconductor. The F-doping dependence of these properties in this system are very weak, while in the FeAs system (LaFeAsO), the F doping induces the large changes in electronic properties. This difference is probably due to the different F-doping dependence of the lattice in these two systems. It has been revealed that a pure effect of electron doping on electronic properties is very weak in this Fe pnictide compound.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in J. Phys. Soc. Jp

High-pressure, transport, and thermodynamic properties of CeTe3

We have performed high-pressure, electrical resistivity, and specific heat measurements on CeTe3 single crystals. Two magnetic phases with nonparallel magnetic easy axes were detected in electrical resistivity and specific heat at low temperatures. We also observed the emergence of an additional phase at high pressures and low temperatures and a possible structural phase transition detected at room temperature and at 45 kbar, which can possibly be related with the lowering of the charge-density wave transition temperature known for this compound.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Pressure induced superconductivity in the charge density wave compound TbTe3

A series of high-pressure resistivity measurements on single crystals of TbTe3 reveal a complex phase diagram involving the interplay of superconducting, antiferromagnetic and charge density wave orders. The onset of superconductivity reaches a maximum of ~ 3.5 K (onset) near 75 kbar.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures; magnetization figure removed due to space constraints; accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Pressure Study of Superconducting Oxypnictide LaFePO

Electrical resistivity and magnetic susceptibility measurements under high pressure were performed on an iron-based superconductor LaFePO. A steep increase in superconducting transition temperature (Tc) of LaFePO with dTc/dP > 4 K/GPa to a maximum of 8.8 K for P = 0.8 GPa was observed. These results are similar to isocrystalline LaFeAsO1-xFx system reported previously. X-ray diffraction measurements were also performed under high pressure up to 10 GPa, where linear compressibility ka and kc are presented.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Linear response results for phonons and electron-phonon coupling in hcp Sc - spin fluctuations and implications for superconductivity

We present a study of the electronic structure, phonon frequencies and electron-phonon coupling in hcp Sc under pressure. The electron-phonon coupling constant is found to increase steadily with pressure in the hcp phase, until the pressure reaches a value where the hcp phase becomes unstable. Calculations for the normal pressure $c/a$ ratio predict a phase change somewhere between calculated pressures of 22 and 30 GPa. The calculated frequencies for the equilibrium hcp lattice parameters are in good agreement with the inelastic neutron scattering results. From the measured value of the electronic specific heat constant and the calculated values of the Fermi level density of states and electron-phonon coupling constant, we conclude that the electron-paramagnon coupling constant in hcp Sc should be comparable to the electron-phonon coupling constant. This indicates that the spin fluctuation effects are strong enough to suppress superconductivity completely in hcp Sc. Based on estimates of the electron-paramagnon coupling constants and the calculated or estimated electron-phonon coupling constants, we argue that the hcp phase may become superconducting with a very low transition temperature immediately prior to the transition to the Sc-II phase and that the Sc-II phase should indeed be superconducting.Comment: To appear in Journal of Physics: Condens. Matter. This is a substantially revised version of an earlier submission (arXiv:0706.3728v1 [cond-mat.supr-con] 25 Jun 2007) which was withdrawn due to some errors in the discussion. The revised version addresses those errors and includes additional result

Giving Leads to Happiness in Young Children

Evolutionary models of cooperation require proximate mechanisms that sustain prosociality despite inherent costs to individuals. The “warm glow” that often follows prosocial acts could provide one such mechanism; if so, these emotional benefits may be observable very early in development. Consistent with this hypothesis, the present study finds that before the age of two, toddlers exhibit greater happiness when giving treats to others than receiving treats themselves. Further, children are happier after engaging in costly giving – forfeiting their own resources – than when giving the same treat at no cost. By documenting the emotionally rewarding properties of costly prosocial behavior among toddlers, this research provides initial support for the claim that experiencing positive emotions when giving to others is a proximate mechanism for human cooperation

Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

While many wildlife species are threatened, some populations have recovered from previous Overexploitation, and data linking these population increases with disease dynamics are limited. We present data suggesting that free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) are a maintenance host for Brucella abortus in new areas of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Brucellosis seroprevalence in free-ranging elk increased from 0-7% in 1991-1992 to 8 20% in 2006-2007 in four of six herd units around the GYE. These levels of brucellosis are comparable to some herd units where elk are artificially aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds. There are several possible mechanisms for this increase that we evaluated using statistical and population modeling approaches. Simulations of an age-structured population model suggest that the observed levels of seroprevalence are unlikely to be sustained by dispersal from supplemental feeding areas with relatively high seroprevalence or an older age structure. Increases in brucellosis seroprevalence and the total elk population size in areas with feeding grounds have not been statistically detectable. Meanwhile, the rate of seroprevalence increase outside the feeding grounds was related to the population size and density of each herd unit. Therefore, the data suggest that enhanced elk-to-elk transmission in free-ranging populations may be occurring due to larger winter elk aggregations. Elk populations inside and outside of the GYE that traditionally did not maintain brucellosis may now be at risk due to recent population increases. In particular, some neighboring populations of Montana elk were 5-9 times larger in 2007 than in the 1970s, with some aggregations comparable to the Wyoming feeding-ground populations. Addressing the unintended consequences of these increasing populations is complicated by limited hunter access to private lands, which places many ungulate populations out of administrative control. Agency-landowner hunting access partnerships and the protection of large predators are two management strategies that may be used to target high ungulate densities in private refuges and reduce the current and future burden of disease