Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29–39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.</p

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

The inflammatory effect of cardiopulmonary bypass on leukocyte extravasation in vivo

ObjectiveExtravascular trafficking of leukocytes into organs is thought to play a major role in the pathophysiologic mechanisms of the inflammatory response to cardiopulmonary bypass, yet leukocyte extravasation is difficult to study clinically. Here we have tested the hypothesis that leukocyte emigration into skin blisters can provide a way to monitor the inflammatory effect of cardiopulmonary bypass that allows testing of anti-inflammatory interventions (exemplified by aprotinin).MethodsPatients undergoing primary elective coronary artery bypass grafting (n = 14) were randomized into 2 equal groups to receive saline infusion during cardiopulmonary bypass (control group) or high-dose aprotinin. Experimental skin blisters (in duplicate) were induced on the forearm by means of topical application of the vesicant cantharidin, and blister fluid was sampled at 5 hours postoperatively. Inflammatory leukocyte subsets in blister fluid were analyzed by means of flow cytometry by using expression of CD11b and CD62L as a phenotypic marker of activation.ResultsIn the control group of patients, cardiopulmonary bypass surgery triggered a 381% increase in leukocyte extravasation into the skin compared with reference blisters carried out before surgical intervention, with neutrophil (P = .014), monocyte (P = .014), and eosinophil (P = .009) levels all statistically significantly increased. In the aprotinin group there was no statistically significant increase during cardiopulmonary bypass surgery in any inflammatory leukocyte subset. The activation phenotype of extravascular leukocytes was not significantly altered between surgical groups.ConclusionsThis study introduces the cantharidin blister technique as a powerful new research tool for analyzing the inflammatory effect of cardiopulmonary bypass in vivo. It has provided detailed molecular insight into the extravascular leukocyte population during cardiopulmonary bypass. Although aprotinin blocked cardiopulmonary bypass–dependent extravasation of leukocytes, there was no change in their CD11b/CD62L activation status. The cantharidin skin test thus represents a novel research tool for evaluating future anti-inflammatory interventions in cardiothoracic surgery

Incidence and natural history of proliferative sickle cell retinopathy:Observations from a cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence, prevalence, and natural history of proliferative sickle cell retinopathy (PSR). DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal study over 20 years. PARTICIPANTS: Newborn screening of 100000 consecutive deliveries from 1973 to 1981 identified 315 children with homozygous sickle cell (SS) disease and 201 with SS-hemoglobin C (SC) disease. By the age of 5 years, 307 SS patients and 166 SC patients were alive and living in Jamaica and were recruited for this ophthalmic study. METHODS: Description of retinal vascular changes on annual angiography and angioscopy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence and prevalence of PSR and its behavior on follow-up. Progression of PSR was investigated using the number of eyes affected (none, one, both) and the interval until PSR onset. RESULTS: At last review in January 2000, PSR had developed in 59 patients (14 SS, 45 SC), unilaterally in 36 patients and bilaterally in 23. Incidence increased with age in both genotypes, with crude annual incidence rates of 0.5 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-0.8) per 100 SS subjects and 2.5 cases (95% CI, 1.9-3.3) per 100 SC subjects. Prevalence was greater in SC disease, and by the ages of 24 to 26 years, PSR had occurred in 43% subjects with SC disease and in 14% subjects with SS disease. Patients with unilateral PSR had a 16% (11% SS, 17% SC) probability of regressing to no PSR and a 14% (16% SS, 13% SC) probability of progressing to bilateral PSR. Those with bilateral PSR had an 8% (8% SS, 8% SC) probability of regressing to unilateral PSR and a 1% (0 SS, 2% SC) probability of regressing to a PSR-free state. Irretrievable visual loss occurred in only 1 of 82 PSR-affected eyes, and 1 required detachment surgery and recovered normal visual acuity. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal observations over 20 years in a cohort of patients followed from birth confirms a greater incidence and severity of PSR in SC disease, and shows that spontaneous regression occurred in 32% of PSR-affected eyes. Permanent visual loss was uncommon in subjects observed up to the age of 26 year

A comparison of acute and long-term management of stroke patients in Barbados and South London

Background: To compare health care utilisation between stroke patients living in a middle-income country with similar patients in a high-income country in terms of the type and amount of health care received following a stroke. Methods: Data were collected from the population-based South London Stroke Register (SLSR) and the Barbados Register of Strokes (BROS) from January 2001 to December 2004. Differences in management and diagnostic procedures used in the acute phase were adjusted for age, sex, ethnic group, living conditions pre-stroke and socio-economic status by multivariable logistic regression. Comparison of subsequent management was made for 3 months and 1 year post-stroke. Results: Patients in BROS were less likely to be admitted to a hospital ward (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.13-0.37), but the difference for the lower use of brain scans in BROS was smaller (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.25-1.52). Additional adjustment for stroke severity (Glasgow Coma Score) showed that BROS patients were more likely to have a swallow test on admission (OR 2.95; 95% CI 1.17-7.45). BROS patients were less likely to be in nursing care at 3 months (OR 0.37; 95% CI 0.17-0.81), and less likely to be receiving speech and language therapy at 3 months (OR 0.10; 95% CI 0.03-0.33) and 1 year (OR 0.05; 95% CI 0.00-0.55). Conclusions: The lower use of hospital admission and nursing care at 3 months suggests that in Barbados, family and friends take greater responsibility for patient care around the time of the stroke and in the medium term thereafter

Growth curves for normal Jamaican neonates

The aim of this study was to provide standards for the assessment of birthweight head circumference and crown-heel length for normal, singleton newborns of predominantly West African descent. Data were collected for 10 482 or 94% of all recorded births in Jamaica during the two-month period September I to October 31, 1986 After editing procedures, data were available for 6178 (birthweight), 5975 (head circumference), and 5990 (crown-heel length). The data presented in tables and growth curves include birthweight, head circumference and crown-heel length for males and females separately, for gestational ages 30-43 weeks. Data sets from the University Hospital of the West Indies in 1990 and 1999 were used to explore the possibility of secular change over the period 1986-1999. In conclusion, these ethnic and gender-specific growth curves are based on the most extensive dataset currently available in Jamaica for babies of West African descent