Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems.

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates

Expressing Measurement Uncertainty in OCL/UML Datatypes

Uncertainty is an inherent property of any measure or estimation performed in any physical setting, and therefore it needs to be considered when modeling systems that manage real data. Although several modeling languages permit the representation of measurement uncertainty for describing certain system attributes, these aspects are not normally incorporated into their type systems. Thus, operating with uncertain values and propagating uncertainty are normally cumbersome processes, di cult to achieve at the model level. This paper proposes an extension of OCL and UML datatypes to incorporate data uncertainty coming from physical measurements or user estimations into the models, along with the set of operations de ned for the values of these types.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

An adaptive prefix-assignment technique for symmetry reduction

This paper presents a technique for symmetry reduction that adaptively assigns a prefix of variables in a system of constraints so that the generated prefix-assignments are pairwise nonisomorphic under the action of the symmetry group of the system. The technique is based on McKay's canonical extension framework [J.~Algorithms 26 (1998), no.~2, 306--324]. Among key features of the technique are (i) adaptability---the prefix sequence can be user-prescribed and truncated for compatibility with the group of symmetries; (ii) parallelizability---prefix-assignments can be processed in parallel independently of each other; (iii) versatility---the method is applicable whenever the group of symmetries can be concisely represented as the automorphism group of a vertex-colored graph; and (iv) implementability---the method can be implemented relying on a canonical labeling map for vertex-colored graphs as the only nontrivial subroutine. To demonstrate the practical applicability of our technique, we have prepared an experimental open-source implementation of the technique and carry out a set of experiments that demonstrate ability to reduce symmetry on hard instances. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the implementation effectively parallelizes to compute clusters with multiple nodes via a message-passing interface.Comment: Updated manuscript submitted for revie

Estimating nanoparticle size from diffraction measurements

Nanometre-sized particles are of considerable current interest because of their special size-dependent physical properties. Debye-Scherrer diffraction patterns are often used to characterize samples, as well as to probe the structure of nanoparticles. Unfortunately, the well known 'Scherrer formula' is unreliable at estimating particle size, because the assumption of an underlying crystal structure (translational symmetry) is often invalid. A simple approach is presented here which takes the Fourier transform of a Debye-Scherrer diffraction pattern. The method works well on noisy data and when only a narrow range of scattering angles is available.3361335134

Antipsychotic dose escalation as a trigger for Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome (NMS): literature review and case series report

Background: “Neuroleptic malignant syndrome” (NMS) is a potentially fatal idiosyncratic reaction to any medication which affects the central dopaminergic system. Between 0.5% and 1% of patients exposed to antipsychotics develop the condition. Mortality rates may be as high as 55% and many risk factors have been reported. Although rapid escalation of antipsychotic dose is thought to be an important risk factor, to date it has not been the focus of a published case series or scientifically defined. <p/>Aims: To identify cases of NMS and review risk factors for its development with a particular focus on rapid dose escalation in the 30 days prior to onset. <p/>Methodology: A review of the literature on rapid dose escalation was undertaken and a pragmatic definition of “rapid dose escalation” was made. NMS cases were defined using DSM-IV criteria and systematically identified within a secondary care mental health service. A ratio of titration rate was calculated for each NMS patient and “rapid escalators” and “non rapid escalators” were compared. <p/>Results: 13 cases of NMS were identified. A progressive mean dose increase 15 days prior to the confirmed episode of NMS was observed (241.7mg/day during days 1-15 to 346.9mg/day during days 16-30) and the mean ratio of dose escalation for NMS patients was 1.4. Rapid dose escalation was seen in 5/13 cases and non rapid escalators had markedly higher daily cumulative antipsychotic dose compared to rapid escalators. <p/>Conclusions: Rapid dose escalation occurred in less than half of this case series (n=5, 38.5%), although there is currently no consensus on the precise definition of rapid dose escalation. Cumulative antipsychotic dose – alongside other known risk factors - may also be important in the development of NMS

KIDMAP, a web based system for gathering patients' feedback on their doctors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The gathering of feedback on doctors from patients after consultations is an important part of patient involvement and participation. This study first assesses the 23-item Patient Feedback Questionnaire (PFQ) designed by the Picker Institute, Europe, to determine whether these items form a single latent trait. Then, an Internet module with visual representation is developed to gather patient views about their doctors; this program then distributes the individualized results by email.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 450 patients were randomly recruited from a 1300-bed-size medical center in Taiwan. The Rasch rating scale model was used to examine the data-fit. Differential item functioning (DIF) analysis was conducted to verify construct equivalence across the groups. An Internet module with visual representation was developed to provide doctors with the patient's online feedback.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-one of the 23 items met the model's expectation, namely that they constitute a single construct. The test reliability was 0.94. DIF was found between ages and different kinds of disease, but not between genders and education levels. The visual approach of the KIDMAP module on the WWW seemed to be an effective approach to the assessment of patient feedback in a clinical setting.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The revised 21-item PFQ measures a single construct. Our work supports the hypothesis that the revised PFQ online version is both valid and reliable, and that the KIDMAP module is good at its designated task. Further research is needed to confirm data congruence for patients with chronic diseases.</p

A risk prediction model for the assessment and triage of women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in low-resourced settings: the miniPIERS (Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk) multi-country prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia are leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). We developed the miniPIERS risk prediction model to provide a simple, evidence-based tool to identify pregnant women in LMICs at increased risk of death or major hypertensive-related complications. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1 July 2008 to 31 March 2012, in five LMICs, data were collected prospectively on 2,081 women with any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy admitted to a participating centre. Candidate predictors collected within 24 hours of admission were entered into a step-wise backward elimination logistic regression model to predict a composite adverse maternal outcome within 48 hours of admission. Model internal validation was accomplished by bootstrapping and external validation was completed using data from 1,300 women in the Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk (fullPIERS) dataset. Predictive performance was assessed for calibration, discrimination, and stratification capacity. The final miniPIERS model included: parity (nulliparous versus multiparous); gestational age on admission; headache/visual disturbances; chest pain/dyspnoea; vaginal bleeding with abdominal pain; systolic blood pressure; and dipstick proteinuria. The miniPIERS model was well-calibrated and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) of 0.768 (95% CI 0.735-0.801) with an average optimism of 0.037. External validation AUC ROC was 0.713 (95% CI 0.658-0.768). A predicted probability ≥25% to define a positive test classified women with 85.5% accuracy. Limitations of this study include the composite outcome and the broad inclusion criteria of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. This broad approach was used to optimize model generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: The miniPIERS model shows reasonable ability to identify women at increased risk of adverse maternal outcomes associated with the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. It could be used in LMICs to identify women who would benefit most from interventions such as magnesium sulphate, antihypertensives, or transportation to a higher level of care