Game theory of mind

This paper introduces a model of ‘theory of mind’, namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a ‘game theory of mind’. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a ‘stag-hunt’. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution

ATM variants 7271T>G and IVS10-6T>G among women with unilateral and bilateral breast cancer

Recent reports suggest that two ATM gene mutations, 7271T>G and IVS10-6T>G, are associated with a high risk of breast cancer among multiple-case families. To assess the importance of these two mutations in another 'high-risk' group, young women (under age 51) with multiple primaries, we screened a large population-based series of young women with bilateral breast cancer and compared the frequency of these mutations among similar women diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer. The 1149 women included were enrolled in an ongoing population-based case-control study of the genetic factors that contribute to bilateral breast cancer; they were not selected on the basis of family history of cancer. Screening for 7271T>G and IVS10-6T>G ATM gene mutations was conducted using DHPLC followed by direct sequencing. The 7271T>G mutation was detected in one out of 638 (0.2%) women with unilateral breast cancer and in none of the bilateral cases, and the IVS10-6T>G mutation in one out of 511 (0.2%) bilateral and in eight out of 638 (1.3%) unilateral breast cancer cases. Carriers of either mutation were not limited to women with a family history. Given the likelihood that young women with bilateral breast cancer have a genetic predisposition, the observed mutation distribution is contrary to that expected if these two mutations were to play an important role in breast carcinogenesis among individuals at high risk

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System

Cigarette Smoking in Male Patients with Chronic Schizophrenia in a Chinese Population: Prevalence and Relationship to Clinical Phenotypes

The high prevalence of smoking in schizophrenia of European background may be related to smoking's reducing clinical symptoms and medication side effects. Because smoking prevalence and its associations with clinical phenotypes are less well characterized in Chinese than European patients with schizophrenia, we assessed these smoking behaviors using clinician-administered questionnaires and the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) in 776 Chinese male schizophrenia and 560 control subjects. Patients also were rated on the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS), the Simpson and Angus Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale (SAES), and the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS). We found that the schizophrenia patients had a higher lifetime incidence of smoking (79% vs 63%), were more likely to be heavy smokers (61% vs 31%), and had lower smoking cessation rates (4% vs 9%) (all p<0.0001) than controls. Among the schizophrenia patients smoking prevalence increased with age, with the largest difference from controls in the age cohort of 55–75 years: 75% vs 46% (p<0.0001). Among the schizophrenia smokers 73% started to smoke before the onset of their illness by an average of 7.6 years. The patients with schizophrenia who were current smokers scored significantly lower on the PANSS negative symptom subscore (p<0.005), and on the SAES symptom scale (p<0.04; Bonferroni corrected p>0.05) than the non-smoking patients. These results suggest that Chinese males with schizophrenia smoke more frequently than the general population. Further, smokers with schizophrenia may display fewer negative symptoms and possibly less parkinsonism than non-smokers with schizophrenia

Cigarette Smoking and Cognitive Function in Chinese Male Schizophrenia: A Case-Control study

Schizophrenic patients have higher smoking rates than the general population. Studies show that smoking may be a form of self-medication in an attempt to alleviate cognitive deficits in schizophrenic patients of European background. This study examined the relationships between smoking and cognitive deficits in Chinese schizophrenic patients, which have previously received little systemic study. We recruited 580 male chronic patients meeting DSM-IV criteria for schizophrenia and 175 male control subjects who were matched on age and education. The subjects completed a detailed cigarette smoking questionnaire, the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), and the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS). Patients also were rated on the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS), the Simpson and Angus Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale (SAES), and the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS). All five RBANS subscales except for the Visuospatial/Constructional index showed significantly lower cognitive performance for schizophrenics than normal controls. The schizophrenic smokers scored lower than the schizophrenic non-smokers on the RBANS total score and the Visuospatial/Constructional and Immediate Memory indices. Similarly, the control smokers scored lower than the control non-smokers on the RBANS total score and the Immediate Memory index . Also, the schizophrenic smokers consistently performed the poorest on the cognitive domains of the RBANS. Among the schizophrenic patients, smokers displayed significantly fewer negative symptoms than non-smokers. Using multivariate regression analysis the following variables were independently associated with the RBANS total score: years of education, PANSS negative symptom score, age at schizophrenia onset, and number of hospitalizations. Our results show that smoking is associated with significant cognitive impairment in both schizophrenic patients and normal controls, but the smokers with schizophrenia had a reduced level of negative symptoms, suggesting that the benefits of smoking for those with schizophrenia may be limited to certain aspects of a given clinical phenotype

Aconitase Regulation of Erythropoiesis Correlates with a Novel Licensing Function in Erythropoietin-Induced ERK Signaling

Erythroid development requires the action of erythropoietin (EPO) on committed progenitors to match red cell output to demand. In this process, iron acts as a critical cofactor, with iron deficiency blunting EPO-responsiveness of erythroid progenitors. Aconitase enzymes have recently been identified as possible signal integration elements that couple erythropoiesis with iron availability. In the current study, a regulatory role for aconitase during erythropoiesis was ascertained using a direct inhibitory strategy.In C57BL/6 mice, infusion of an aconitase active-site inhibitor caused a hypoplastic anemia and suppressed responsiveness to hemolytic challenge. In a murine model of polycythemia vera, aconitase inhibition rapidly normalized red cell counts, but did not perturb other lineages. In primary erythroid progenitor cultures, aconitase inhibition impaired proliferation and maturation but had no effect on viability or ATP levels. This inhibition correlated with a blockade in EPO signal transmission specifically via ERK, with preservation of JAK2-STAT5 and Akt activation. Correspondingly, a physical interaction between ERK and mitochondrial aconitase was identified and found to be sensitive to aconitase inhibition.Direct aconitase inhibition interferes with erythropoiesis in vivo and in vitro, confirming a lineage-selective regulatory role involving its enzymatic activity. This inhibition spares metabolic function but impedes EPO-induced ERK signaling and disturbs a newly identified ERK-aconitase physical interaction. We propose a model in which aconitase functions as a licensing factor in ERK-dependent proliferation and differentiation, thereby providing a regulatory input for iron in EPO-dependent erythropoiesis. Directly targeting aconitase may provide an alternative to phlebotomy in the treatment of polycythemia vera