Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty

We analyse how market price and policy uncertainty, in the form of random provision or retraction of a subsidy, interact to affect the optimal time of investment and the size of a renewable energy (RE) project that can be completed in either a single (lumpy investment) or multiple stages (stepwise investment). The subsidy takes the form of a fixed premium on top of the electricity price, and, therefore, investment is subject to electricity price uncertainty. We show that the risk of a permanent retraction (provision) of a subsidy increases (decreases) the incentive to invest, yet lowers (raises) the amount of installed capacity, and that this result is more pronounced as the size of the subsidy increases. Additionally, we show that increasing the number of policy interventions lowers the expected value of a subsidy and the size of the project. Furthermore, we illustrate that, although an increase in the size of a subsidy lowers the relative value of the stepwise investment strategy, the expected value of a lumpy investment strategy is still lower than that of stepwise investment

Flexibility in technology choice:A real options approach

Hagspiel, V.

Subsidized Capacity Investment under Uncertainty

This paper studies how the subsidy support, e.g. price support and reimbursed investment cost support, affects the investment decision of a monopoly firm under uncertainty and analyzes the implications for social welfare. The analytical results show that the unconditional, i.e., subsidy support that is introduced from the beginning, makes the firm invest earlier. Under a linear demand structure, the unconditional subsidy cannot align the firm's investment decision to the social optimal one. However, a conditional subsidy, i.e., subsidy support introduced at the social optimal investment threshold, can align the two decisions. For a non-linear demand structure, it is possible for the unconditional subsidy to make the firm invest according to the social optimum. When the investment decisions are aligned, the firm's investment leads to the first-best outcome

Essays on the economics and regulatory design of power systems

Regulation has always been at the core of power systems. Two of the most important reasons for regulatory interventions to be present in today's power systems are negative environmental externalities from power generation, and the fact that the power grid is a natural monopoly. Against this background, this thesis investigates several aspects of the economics and regulatory design of power systems with a focus on the generation and transmission sector. Specifically, it investigates design alternatives for the organization of the different economic activities in these sectors with the goal to induce short- and long-term efficiency. Novel approaches are suggested to identify and tackle economic and regulatory deficits. The specific challenges that are addressed stem from the time-varying and interdependent temporal and spatial distribution of production (especially, from variable renewable energies) and demand, as well as from the degree and exchange of information between different players in the supply chain for electric power. It is shown in the thesis that weak designs in these fields may entail significant losses of social welfare. Moreover, it provides insights and suggestions regarding the efficient handling of those challenges

Switching from oil to gas production in a depleting field

Author's accepted version (post-print).Available from 26/05/2020.We derive an optimal decision rule with regards to making an irreversible switch from oil to gas production. The approach can be used by petroleum field operators to maximize the value creation from a petroleum field with diminishing oil production and remaining gas reserves. Assuming that both the oil and gas prices follow a geometric Brownian motion we derive an analytical solution for the exercise threshold. We also propose an explicit solution for the option value that is new to the literature. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the threshold and option value for a generic petroleum field. Both the threshold and option value solutions are relevant for application to other real options cases with similar features (e.g. other types of switching options or a perpetual spread option).acceptedVersio

Product Innovation of an Incumbent Firm:A Dynamic Analysis

In case of a product innovation firms start producing a new product. While doing so, such a firm should decide what to do with its existing product after the firm has innovated. Essentially it can choose between replacing the established product by the new one, or keep on producing the established product so that it produces two products at the same time. The aim of this paper is to design a theoretical framework to analyze this problem. Due to technological progress the quality of the newest available technology, and thus the quality of the innovative product that can be produced by this technology, increases over time. The implication is that a later innovation enables the firm to produce a better innovative product. So, typically the firm faces the tradeoff between innovating fast, which boosts its profits soon but only by a small amount, or innovating later, which leads to a larger payoff increase. The drawback here is that the firm is stuck with producing the established product for a longer time. We fund that a highly uncertain economic environment makes the firm delay abolishing the old product market. But if the innovative market is more volatile, the firm enters the market sooner, provided it will be active on the old market, at least for some time. Moreover, the smaller the initial demand for the innovative product market, the better the quality of the innovative product needs to be for the product innovation to be optimal

Capacity optimization of an innovating firm

publishedVersio

Facile synthesis of a stable dihydroboryl {BH2}– anion

While the one-electron reduction of (CAACMe)BH2Br (CAACMe = 1-(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)-3,3,5,5-tetramethylpyrrolidin-2-ylidene) yields a hydride-shift isomer of the corresponding tetrahydrodiborane, a further reversible reduction leads to the first stable parent boryl anion, [(CAACMe)BH2]–, which acts as a powerful boron nucleophile

Optimal Risk Adoption and Capacity Investment in Technological Innovations

Technological innovations often formulate new market regimes and create incentives to abandon existing, less attractive ones. However, this decision depends not only on market forces, such as economic and technological uncertainty, but also on attitudes toward risk. Although greater risk aversion typically raises the incentive to postpone investment, the impact of risk aversion becomes more complex when a firm has discretion over both the timing and the size of a project. We develop a utility-based regime-switching framework in order to analyze how a firm with discretion over investment timing and project scale may choose to abandon an existing market regime to enter a new one. Results indicate that greater risk aversion hastens investment in an existing regime by decreasing the amount of installed capacity, but delays its abandonment, thereby hindering the transition to a new one. In contrast, greater demand uncertainty in the new market regime raises the value of the investment opportunity and, in turn, the incentive to abandon the existing regime. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty over the arrival of a technological innovation may accelerate investment in the existing regime and reduce the relative loss in project value in the absence of managerial discretion over project scale