THE DIFFUSION OF ATROCITIES: A SPATIAL ANALYSIS ON THE ROLE OF REFUGEES

A range of theories have attempted to explain the existing variation in the level of civilian victimization across countries. To date, most of these theories have been focused on the influence of the strategic environment in which these atrocities take place or they have emphasized the organizational difference between the involved actors. Less attention is, however, devoted to the possible spillover effect of these atrocities. This study fills this niche by analyzing the role of refugee flows on the diffusion of atrocities. We do so through statistical analyses of refugee from neighboring countries and the occurrence of atrocities in Africa during the period of 1995-2010, controlling for other possible explanation of atrocities. Our study is the first to systematically examine the effect of refugees on the likelihood of atrocities in refugee-recipient states. We do this by employing a spatial lag model with a temporal component with two different spatial weighting matrices. The preliminary results of the analyses suggest that refugees indeed influence the amount of atrocities and that atrocities are spatially determined. Furthermore, civilian killings is primarily caused by strategic factors such as the number of atrocities and rebel groups in neighboring state and the number of rebel groups and battle deaths in the host country.atrocities; refugees; spatial temporal lag model

What interethnic marriage rates tell us about ethnic conflict and cooperation in Africa

Debates around whether greater ethnic diversity increases or decreases tensions between different groups in a region are contested, often overlooking the type of social contact made. New research measures whether rates of interethnic marriage in Africa, as a form of long-term meaningful contact, affect the prevalence of interethnic armed conflict by promoting cooperative intergroup relations

The impact of climate variability on children: The recruitment of boys and girls by rebel groups

Environmental changes place severe pressure on individuals and societies. Vulnerable segments of the population, especially children, are likely to be first affected. We examine the impact of climate variability on the recruitment of children by rebel groups during conflict. We argue that changes in climate patterns increase both the supply of children willing to work as soldiers as well as rebel groups’ demand for them. To empirically examine this association, we combine global data on temperature and precipitation shocks with information on child soldier recruitment by rebel groups. Our findings suggest that climate variability shapes child soldier recruitment in systematic and significant ways. Additionally, we show that this relationship is not gender-neutral: it has a strong impact on the level of girls recruited by rebel groups. This research has important implications for our understanding of how climate variability can influence conflict dynamics, how environmental changes may worsen the circumstances of the most vulnerable individuals of conflict-affected societies, and how a non-gender-neutral effect of climate changes may materialize

»Die Umfrage ist anonym …«

Onlineumfragen sind in den Sozialwissenschaften eine weit verbreitete Methode zur Datenerhebung. Eine Herausforderung, die bei der Umsetzung zu beachten ist, ist der Datenschutz. Bei der Formulierung der Datenschutzhinweise sind verschiedene Aspekte zu berücksichtigen. Der Beitrag erörtert im ersten Teil, welchen Einfluss die Präsentation von Datenschutzhinweisen bzw. unterschiedliche Darstellungen oder Formulierungen auf die Teilnahmebereitschaft oder das Antwortverhalten der Befragungsteilnehmenden haben. Im zweiten Teil werden die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen vorgestellt. Darauf basierend werden Empfehlungen zur Formulierung und Gestaltung von Datenschutzhinweisen in wissenschaftlichen Onlineumfragen gegeben.   Online surveys are a popular method for data collection in social sciences. A challenge every researcher should pay attention to is the protection of data privacy. Different aspects need to be considered while formulating a data protection notice. We discuss how the presentation of data protection notices and different layouts of the presentation influence the willingness to participate in the survey or the response behaviour. Secondly, the regulatory framework is presented. Finally we give recommendations how to phrase and present a data protection notice for scientific online surveys

Do Child Soldiers Influence UN Peacekeeping?

The use of child soldiers in conflicts has received increasing academic attention in recent years. This article examines post-conflict periods to see whether the use of child soldiers mobilizes United Nations peacekeeping operations (UN PKO) in the aftermath of a conflict. Taking into consideration how child soldiers affect conflict and how important their reintegration is to sustainable peace and post-conflict development, we analyse whether the presence of child soldiers in a civil war increases the likelihood of the presence of a PKO. We argue that the UN deems a conflict with child soldiers as a difficult case for conflict resolution, necessitating a response from the international community. This is in line with our empirical results confirming that the use of child soldiers significantly increases the likelihood of peacekeeping

Could rebel child soldiers prolong civil wars?

While we know why rebels may recruit children for their cause, our understanding of the consequences of child soldiering by non-state armed groups remains limited. The following research contributes to addressing this by examining how rebels? child recruitment practice affects the duration of internal armed conflicts. We advance the argument that child soldiering increases the strength of rebel organizations vis-�-vis the government. This, in turn, lowers the capability asymmetry between these nonstate actors and the incumbent, allowing the former to sustain in dispute. Ultimately, the duration of armed conflicts is likely to be prolonged. We analyze this relationship with quantitative data on child soldier recruitment by rebel groups in the post-1989 period. The results confirm our main hypothesis: disputes are substantially longer when rebels recruit children. This work has important implications for the study of armed conflicts, conflict duration, and our understanding of child soldiering

The impact of child soldiers on rebel groups’ fighting capacities

Several rebel groups actively recruit children to serve among their ranks. While this constitutes one of the most egregious violations of children’s rights, it remains unclear what impact recruited children have on the fighting capacities of these armed groups. The existing research suggests that, on the one hand, armed groups drafting children might also be militarily effective, since it is cheaper to provide for children, they are more obedient and aggressive than adults, and easily manipulable. On the other hand, children may negatively affect rebel groups’ fighting capacities as they are less proficient combatants than adults and often difficult to control. We add to this debate by systematically analyzing the quantitative evidence on the impact of child soldiers on rebel groups’ fighting capacities. Based on the analysis of newly compiled data on child recruitment by rebel groups between 1989 and 2010, our analyses show that children may actually increase rebel groups’ fighting capacities. That said, rebels’ ability to procure arms and the access to resources seem to be more important determinants of fighting capacity. The authors discuss these findings in light of policy implications and avenues for future research. </jats:p

The study of child soldiering : issues and consequences for DDR implementation

An increasing number of children are actively participating in armed groups, drawing attention to the issue of child soldiering from both international humanitarian organisations and the academic community. Despite this interest, there is a lack of explicit attempts to bring the insights of these two arenas together. More specifically the theoretical issues raised by the scholarly community have not been incorporated into disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) practices. This article combines these two arenas to show that questions related to age, gender, agency and the recruitment of child soldiers in particular have not yet been resolved, leading to problems in the implementation of child-centred DDR programmes.publishe

The Organization of Political Violence by Insurgencies

A range of theories have attempted to explain the variation in civilian abuse of warring parties. Most of these theories have been focused on the strategic environment in which these acts take place. Less attention is devoted to the perpetrators of these human right abuses themselves: the armed groups. This study tries to fill this niche by using the organizational process theory in which it is assumed that armed groups, like every organization, struggles for survival. The leader tries to ensure the maintenance of her armed group by increasing her control over her troops. The relationship between the level of control and the perpetrated civilian abuse is examined with a new dataset on the internal structure of more than 70 different armed groups around the world. With the help of a Bayesian Ordered Probit model, this new dataset on civilian abuse is analyzed. The results show that especially particular incentives play an important role

Replication Data for: Child soldiers as time bombs? Adolescents’ participation in rebel groups and the recurrence of armed conflict

The existent work on child soldiering began only recently to systematically study its consequences, both theoretically and empirically. The following article seeks to contribute to this by examining the impact of rebels’ child soldier recruitment practices during war on the risk of armed conflict recurrence in post-conflict societies. We argue that child soldiering in a previous dispute may increase both the willingness and opportunity to resume fighting in the post-conflict period, while disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programmes could decrease these aspects of conflict recurrence. Empirically, we analyse time-series cross-section data on post-conflict country-years between 1989 and 2005. The findings highlight that the risk of conflict recurrence does, indeed, increase with child soldiers who fought in an earlier dispute, but — counter-intuitively — is unlikely to be affected by the presence of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration programmes in post-conflict societies. This research has important implications for the study of armed conflicts, child soldiering and research on post-conflict stability