Oil price, exchange rate and consumer price co-movement: A continuous-wavelet analysis

Using the cross-wavelet coherency, partial-wavelet coherency and wavelet phase-difference, this paper investigates the time-frequency co-movement among crude oil price, Rwandan Franc/USD exchange rate and consumer price index. The time-frequency analysis unveils the strong dependency between oil prices and exchange rate; the two series are in phase at a short cycle of three to four months. This co-movement intesnfied and expanded to intermediate scales of four to sixteen months beginning late 2007, the onset of global financial crisis. There is evidence that oil prices might have significantly contributed to the depreciation of the Rwandan Franc that depreciated by 446% in only 21 years. This effect varies in time and frequency. Our findings suggest that there is no singificant time-frequency relationship between, on one side oil prices and consumer prices, and exchange rate and consumer prices on the other side. This implies that oil prices are not inflationary, which provides greater freedom for pursuing an independent monetary policy, and makes it easier for the Central Bank to possibly implement inflation targeting in the future. However, fiscal and monetary authorities need to devise policies to attenuate the effect of oil shocks on macroeconomic stability, including the effect of continuous depreciation of the Rwandan Francs on the balance of trade, and on external debt servicing since debt is denominated in foreign currencies

Oil price, exchange rate and consumer price co-movement: A continuous-wavelet analysis

Using the cross-wavelet coherency, partial-wavelet coherency and wavelet phase-difference, this paper investigates the time-frequency co-movement among crude oil price, Rwandan Franc/USD exchange rate and consumer price index. The time-frequency analysis unveils the strong dependency between oil prices and exchange rate; the two series are in phase at a short cycle of three to four months. This co-movement intesnfied and expanded to intermediate scales of four to sixteen months beginning late 2007, the onset of global financial crisis. There is evidence that oil prices might have significantly contributed to the depreciation of the Rwandan Franc that depreciated by 446% in only 21 years. This effect varies in time and frequency. Our findings suggest that there is no singificant time-frequency relationship between, on one side oil prices and consumer prices, and exchange rate and consumer prices on the other side. This implies that oil prices are not inflationary, which provides greater freedom for pursuing an independent monetary policy, and makes it easier for the Central Bank to possibly implement inflation targeting in the future. However, fiscal and monetary authorities need to devise policies to attenuate the effect of oil shocks on macroeconomic stability, including the effect of continuous depreciation of the Rwandan Francs on the balance of trade, and on external debt servicing since debt is denominated in foreign currencies

The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia

This paper investigates the extent to which macroeconomic fundamentals explain movements in the Swedish Krona against the Danish Krone and the Norwegian Krone exchange rates; three currencies of neighboring countries that are main trade partners and with long-term economic similarities. Exchange rates and fundamentals are decomposed into wavelet scales to gauge the explanatory power of the monetary model at different frequencies. There is a significant relationship between interest rate, inflation, and to a lesser extent the stock of money and output differentials and in-sample exchange rates movements at horizons of eight months and above. Wavelet decomposition uncovers the time scale aspect of exchange rate determination, and suggests that the monetary model is still a useful framework at medium and long horizons

The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia

This paper investigates the extent to which macroeconomic fundamentals explain movements in the Swedish Krona against the Danish Krone and the Norwegian Krone exchange rates; three currencies of neighboring countries that are main trade partners and with long-term economic similarities. Exchange rates and fundamentals are decomposed into wavelet scales to gauge the explanatory power of the monetary model at different frequencies. There is a significant relationship between interest rate, inflation, and to a lesser extent the stock of money and output differentials and in-sample exchange rates movements at horizons of eight months and above. Wavelet decomposition uncovers the time scale aspect of exchange rate determination, and suggests that the monetary model is still a useful framework at medium and long horizons

Technology Shock and the Business Cycle in the G7 Countries: A Structural Vector Error Correction Model

This paper investigates the importance of technology shock in explaining fluctuations over business cycles and its contractionary effects. Applying the SVEC model on quarterly data of G7 countries and accounting for long cycles in hours worked, there is evidence of a decline in employment as measured by hours worked and investment following a positive technology shock. Hours worked show a persistent decline in France and UK, and this lasts for seven years in Italy, three years in Japan, two years in the USA and Canada; and one year in Germany. However, our findings suggest that technology shocks may play only a limited role in deriving the business cycles in the G7 countries; for they only account for under 30 percent of the business cycle variation in hours and investment, under 35 percent of the business cycle variation in consumption, and under 50 percent of the business cycle variation in output of most of the G7 countries. Our findings do not support the conventional real business cycle interpretation; instead, they are consistent with the predictions of the sticky-price model

Asymmetric effects of rainfall on food crop prices: evidence from Rwanda

This study examined the effects of the likely change in rainfall on food crop prices in Rwanda, a landlocked country where agriculture is mainly rain-fed. The empirical investigation is based on nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag cointegration framework, which incorporates an error correction mechanism and allows estimation of asymmetric long-run and short-run dynamic coefficients. The results suggest that food crop prices are vulnerable to rainfall shocks and that the effect is asymmetric in both the short and long run. Moreover, there was evidence of seasonal differences, with prices falling during harvest season and rising thereafter. Considering the ongoing threat of global climate change, and in order to cope with rainfall shortage and uncertainty, increase food affordability and ultimately ensure food security throughout the year, there is a need to develop and distribute food crop varieties and crop technologies that reduce the vulnerability of farming to rainfall shocks

Technology Shock and the Business Cycle in the G7 Countries: A Structural Vector Error Correction Model

This paper investigates the importance of technology shock in explaining fluctuations over business cycles and its contractionary effects. Applying the SVEC model on quarterly data of G7 countries and accounting for long cycles in hours worked, there is evidence of a decline in employment as measured by hours worked and investment following a positive technology shock. Hours worked show a persistent decline in France and UK, and this lasts for seven years in Italy, three years in Japan, two years in the USA and Canada; and one year in Germany. However, our findings suggest that technology shocks may play only a limited role in deriving the business cycles in the G7 countries; for they only account for under 30 percent of the business cycle variation in hours and investment, under 35 percent of the business cycle variation in consumption, and under 50 percent of the business cycle variation in output of most of the G7 countries. Our findings do not support the conventional real business cycle interpretation; instead, they are consistent with the predictions of the sticky-price model

Nanofiltration-induced cell death: An integral perspective of early stage biofouling under permeate flux conditions

The performance of pressure-driven membrane filtration processes for water treatment is hampered by biofouling. A relevant, but often overlooked aspect of this phenomenon concerns the localized microenvironment at the membrane interface. A key question is the level of stress on adhering cells and how this impacts on the developing biofilm. In this study, Pseudomonas fluorescens biofilms were monitored after 1, 2 and 7-day cross-flow nanofiltration experiments using confocal microscopy with live/dead staining which enabled analysis of both biofilm structure and the spatial localization of dead versus live cells. A significant increased level of biomass at low- compared to high-flux conditions (2-day experiments) suggested hindrance of bacterial proliferation at higher fluxes. An increase in live cell fractions was generally observed between 24- and 48-h at low flux conditions (3 bar), while the fraction of dead/injured cells remained constant during that same period. At higher flux conditions (15 bar), the volume of live cell fractions remained constant over 24- and 48-h experiments. The implications of these findings point to the need to reevaluate classical contact-killing strategy for controlling membrane fouling; initial membrane fouling events are characterized by an initially-induced cell death stage followed by an adaptation period through which surviving cells are able to acclimatize in their respective environments. This study emphasizes the need to better understand the role of operating parameters and its resulting cell death during early stage fouling. It is in this context that fouling management strategies can be further developed.European Research CouncilScience Foundation IrelandEuropean Commission - Seventh Framework Programme (FP7

The effects of extrinsic factors on the structural and mechanical properties of Pseudomonas fluorescens biofilms: A combined study of nutrient concentrations and shear conditions

The growth of biofilms on surfaces is a complicated process influenced by several environmental factors such as nutrient availability and fluid shear. In this study, combinations of growth conditions were selected for the study of Pseudomonas fluorescens biofilms including as cultivation time (24- or 48 h), nutrient levels (1:1 or 1:10 King B medium), and shear conditions (75 RPM shaking, 0.4 mL min −1 or 0.7 mL min −1). The use of Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy (CLSM) determined biofilm structure, while liquid-phase Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) techniques resolved the mechanical properties of biofilms. Under semi-static conditions, high nutrient environments led to more abundant biofilms with three times higher EPS content compared to biofilms grown under low nutrient conditions. AFM results revealed that biofilms formed under these conditions were less stiff, as shown by their Young's modulus values of 2.35 ± 0.08 kPa, compared to 4.98 ± 0.02 kPa for that of biofilms formed under low nutrient conditions. Under dynamic conditions, however, biofilms exposed to low nutrient conditions and high shear rates led to more developed biofilms compared to other tested dynamic conditions. These biofilms were also found to be significantly more adhesive compared to their counterparts grown at higher nutrient conditions.European Research CouncilScience Foundation IrelandEC Framework (FP7

Micro ecosystems from feed industry surfaces: a survival and biofilm study of Salmonella versus host resident flora strains

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The presence of <it>Salmonella </it>enterica serovars in feed ingredients, products and processing facilities is a well recognized problem worldwide. In Norwegian feed factories, strict control measures are implemented to avoid establishment and spreading of <it>Salmonella </it>throughout the processing chain. There is limited knowledge on the presence and survival of the resident microflora in feed production plants. Information on interactions between <it>Salmonella </it>and other bacteria in feed production plants and how they affect survival and biofilm formation of <it>Salmonella </it>is also limited. The aim of this study was to identify resident microbiota found in feed production environments, and to compare the survival of resident flora strains and <it>Salmonella </it>to stress factors typically found in feed processing environments. Moreover, the role of dominant resident flora strains in the biofilm development of <it>Salmonella </it>was determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Surface microflora characterization from two feed productions plants, by means of 16 S rDNA sequencing, revealed a wide diversity of bacteria. Survival, disinfection and biofilm formation experiments were conducted on selected dominant resident flora strains and <it>Salmonella</it>. Results showed higher survival properties by resident flora isolates for desiccation, and disinfection compared to <it>Salmonella </it>isolates. Dual-species biofilms favored <it>Salmonella </it>growth compared to <it>Salmonella </it>in mono-species biofilms, with biovolume increases of 2.8-fold and 3.2-fold in the presence of <it>Staphylococcus </it>and <it>Pseudomonas</it>, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results offer an overview of the microflora composition found in feed industry processing environments, their survival under relevant stresses and their potential effect on biofilm formation in the presence of <it>Salmonella</it>. Eliminating the establishment of resident flora isolates in feed industry surfaces is therefore of interest for impeding conditions for <it>Salmonella </it>colonization and growth on feed industry surfaces. In-depth investigations are still needed to determine whether resident flora has a definite role in the persistence of <it>Salmonella </it>in feed processing environments.</p