Economic-demographic interactions in long-run growth

Cliometrics confirms that Malthus’ model of the pre-industrial economy, in which increases in productivity raise population but higher population drives down wages, is a good description for much of demographic/economic history. A contributor to the Malthusian equilibrium was the Western European Marriage Pattern, the late age of female first marriage, which promised to retard the fall of living standards by restricting fertility. The demographic transition and the transition from Malthusian economies to modern economic growth attracted many Cliometric models surveyed here. A popular model component is that lower levels of mortality over many centuries increased the returns to, or preference for, human capital investment so that technical progress eventually accelerated. This initially boosted birth rates and population growth accelerated. Fertility decline was earliest and most striking in late eighteenth century France. By the 1830s the fall in French marital fertility is consistent with a response to the rising opportunity cost of children. The rest of Europe did not begin to follow until end of the nineteenth century. Interactions between the economy and migration have been modelled with Cliometric structures closely related to those of natural increase and the economy. Wages were driven up by emigration from Europe and reduced in the economies receiving immigrants

Energy Productivity Growth in the Dutch Greenhouse Industry

Profitability of Dutch greenhouse firms is largely dependent on energy costs, and policy makers focus on reducing the use of energy by these firms. This article uses Russell measures of TE to develop indicators of energy productivity growth. Results show that energy productivity grew by 2.8% annually in the period 1976–95, with technical progress being the key factor driving the process of productivity growth. From this we conclude that policies aiming at enhancing the adoption of technological innovations are more effective, if due attention is paid to measures for improving TE. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

VORACIOUS TRANSFORMATION OF A COMMON NATURAL RESOURCE INTO PRODUCTIVE CAPITAL

I analyze a power struggle where competing factions have "private" financial assets and deplete a "common" stock of natural resources with no private property rights. I obtain a feedback Nash equilibrium to the dynamic common-pool problem and obtain political variants of the Hotelling depletion rule and the Hartwick saving rule. Resource prices and depletion occur too fast, so substitution away from resources to capital occurs too fast and the saving rate is too high. The power struggle boosts output, but depresses sustainable consumption. Genuine saving is nevertheless zero in a fractionalized society. World Bank estimates may be too optimistic. Copyright (2010) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.