Autonomous Vehicle Control: End-to-end Learning in Simulated Environments

This paper examines end-to-end learning for autonomous vehicles in diverse, simulated environments containing other vehicles, traffic lights, and traffic signs; in weather conditions ranging from sunny to heavy rain. The paper proposes an architecture combing a traditional Convolutional Neural Network with a recurrent layer to facilitate the learning of both spatial and temporal relationships. Furthermore, the paper suggests a model that supports navigational input from the user to facilitate the use of a global route planner to achieve a more comprehensive system. The paper also explores some of the uncertainties regarding the implementation of end-to-end systems. Specifically, how a system’s overall performance is affected by the size of the training dataset, the allowed prediction frequency, and the number of hidden states in the system’s recurrent module. The proposed system is trained using expert driving data captured in various simulated settings and evaluated by its real-time driving performance in unseen simulated environments. The results of the paper indicate that end-to-end systems can operate autonomously in simulated environments, in a range of different weather conditions. Additionally, it was found that using ten hidden states for the system’s recurrent module was optimal. The results further show that the system was sensitive to small reductions in dataset size and that a prediction frequency of 15 Hz was required for the system to perform at its full potential

The Problem with Using the Birthweight: Placental Weight Ratio as a Measure of Placental Efficiency

Introduction The ratio of birthweight to placental weight (BW:PW) is often used as a measure of placental efficiency in humans and animals. However, ratios have properties that are known to lead to spurious results. An alternative approach is the use of residuals from regression, which reflect whether birthweight is higher or lower than expected for a given placental weight, given the population pattern. We hypothesized that biologically meaningful measures of placental efficiency would differ between placentas with and without pathology, and between adverse and normal perinatal and postnatal outcomes. Methods We examined associations between measures of placental efficiency (BW:PW ratio or residuals) and placental pathology, Apgar scores and infant death using National Collaborative Perinatal Project data (4645 preterm births and 28497 term births). Results BW:PW ratios and residuals were significantly lower in placentas showing pathologies including signs of large infarcts or hemorrhage, although many of these differences were small. Low BW:PW ratios and residuals were also associated with low Apgar scores and increased risk of postnatal death. Whereas residuals were lower in term placentas that appeared immature by microscopic examination, the opposite was true for BW:PW ratios. Conclusion The BW:PW ratio produced an artefact whereby histologically less mature placentas at term appeared to be more “efficient” than mature placentas, illustrating a known problem with the use of ratios. For other traits, residuals generally showed differences between placentas with and without pathology that were as great as those seen with BW:PW ratios, and often showed stronger associations with adverse outcomes. &nbsp

External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit. Results Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes. Conclusions The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. (c) 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.Peer reviewe

External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia : individual participant data meta-analysis

Abstract Background Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data (IPD) from UK studies, to evaluate whether any of the models can accurately predict the condition when used within the UK healthcare setting. Methods IPD from 11 UK cohort studies (217,415 pregnant women) within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) pre-eclampsia network contributed to external validation of published prediction models, identified by systematic review. Cohorts that measured all predictor variables in at least one of the identified models and reported pre-eclampsia as an outcome were included for validation. We reported the model predictive performance as discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large), and net benefit. Performance measures were estimated separately in each available study and then, where possible, combined across studies in a random-effects meta-analysis. Results Of 131 published models, 67 provided the full model equation and 24 could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Most of the models showed modest discrimination with summary C-statistics between 0.6 and 0.7. The calibration of the predicted compared to observed risk was generally poor for most models with observed calibration slopes less than 1, indicating that predictions were generally too extreme, although confidence intervals were wide. There was large between-study heterogeneity in each model’s calibration-in-the-large, suggesting poor calibration of the predicted overall risk across populations. In a subset of models, the net benefit of using the models to inform clinical decisions appeared small and limited to probability thresholds between 5 and 7%. Conclusions The evaluated models had modest predictive performance, with key limitations such as poor calibration (likely due to overfitting in the original development datasets), substantial heterogeneity, and small net benefit across settings. The evidence to support the use of these prediction models for pre-eclampsia in clinical decision-making is limited. Any models that we could not validate should be examined in terms of their predictive performance, net benefit, and heterogeneity across multiple UK settings before consideration for use in practice. Trial registration PROSPERO ID: CRD42015029349

Determinants and effects of corporate currency hedging

The main purpose of this thesis is to examine whether firms’ engagement in hedging activities is rewarded in terms of higher firm value. In the process of answering this question we have also conducted two additional analyses. The first one indicates common characteristics of firms that hedge while the second seek to answer whether hedging reduce the exposure to currency fluctuations. According to our results there is no sign that hedging is rewarded by investors. In fact, we find that hedging firms are valued at a lower market value to book value ratio. Our second analysis indicates that large firms hedge more than small, and that those with a high share of foreign revenue are more likely to hedge. Furthermore, firms with more large owners (above 5% stake) are less likely to hedge. Finally, our third analysis shows the effectiveness of hedging derivatives as users of these are less exposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates