Extending flood damage assessment methodology to include sociological and environmental dimensions

Optimal and sustainable flood plain management, including flood control, can only be achieved when the impacts of flood control measures are considered for both the man-made and natural environments, and the sociological aspects are fully considered. Until now, methods/models developed to determine the influences of floods and flood control measures in South Africa, and elsewhere in the world, focus on the man-made environment and neglect the natural environment and social dimensions. Two models, recently completed in South Africa, namely FLODSIM (flood damage simulation model for irrigation areas) and TEWA (flood damage simulation model for urban areas) are cases in point. This paper gives an overview of the development of flood damage assessment and mitigation methodology in South Africa. Emphasis is placed on the evolution from the traditional ex-post approach to the latest ex-ante approach in which the sociological and natural environmental dimensions are included. Deliverables from the presentation should be of value to researchers and managers in the fields of flood management and environmental impact assessment worldwide. WaterSA Vol.27(4) 2001: 517-52

The epidemiology of major incidents in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Background. Major incidents put pressure on any health system. There are currently no studies describing the epidemiology of major incidents in South Africa (SA). The lack of data makes planning for major incidents and exercising of major incident plans difficult.Objective. To describe the epidemiology of major incidents in the Western Cape Province, SA.Methods. A retrospective analysis of the Western Cape Major Incident database was conducted for the period 1 December 2008 - 30 June 2014. Variables collected related to patient demographics and incident details. Summary statistics were used to describe all variables.Results. Seven hundred and seventy-seven major incidents were reviewed (median n=11 per month). Most major incidents occurred in the City of Cape Town (57.8%, n=449), but the Central Karoo district had the highest incidence (11.97/10 000 population). Transport-related incidents occurred most frequently (94.0%, n=730). Minibus taxis were involved in 312 major incidents (40.2%). There was no significant difference between times of day when incidents occurred. A total of 8 732 patients were injured (median n=8 per incident); ten incidents involved 50 or more victims. Most patients were adults (80.0%, n=6 986) and male (51.0%, n=4 455). Of 8 440 patients, 630 (7.5%) were severely injured. More than half of the patients sustained minor injuries (54.6%, n=4 605).Conclusion. Major incidents occurred more often than would have been expected compared with other countries, with road traffic crashes the biggest contributor. A national database will provide a better perspective of the burden of major incidents

A risk assessment for the remote ocean: the case of the South East Atlantic

Degradation of the natural world and associated ecosystem services is attributed to a historical failure to include its ‘value’ in decision-making. Uncertainty in the quantification of the relationship between natural capital ‘assets’ that give rise to critical societal benefits and people is one reason for the omission of these values from natural resource management. As this uncertainty increases in marine systems and further still with distance from the coast, the connection between society and natural capital assets is less likely to be included adequately in decision-making. Natural capital assets of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ), including those of the deep sea, are distant but are known to generate many benefits for society, from the diffuse and broad-scale benefits of climate regulation to the provision of wild fish for food. While our understanding of the precise relationships (the status of asset stocks, ecosystem functions and processes) that control the availability of ecosystem services and the flows of benefits is limited, this does not preclude opening a discourse on how these natural capital assets could best be managed to continue to benefit society. Here we apply a natural capital approach to the South East Atlantic ABNJ, one of the least scientifically understood regions of the planet, and develop a framework for risk assessment. We do this by describing the benefit flows from the natural capital assets of the region, appraising how activities are creating pressures on these flows and whether the controls for these pressures protect them. Our risk register highlights how governance currently favours the protection of direct (extractive) benefit flows from natural capital assets of the region, which are primarily targeted for financial benefit. Without a systems-based framework that can account for the cumulative pressures on natural capital assets their status, associated ecosystem services and benefits are at risk. Such an approach is essential to capture and protect the foundational and often diffuse connections between marine natural capital and global society.</jats:p

Chemical weathering outputs from the flood plain of the Ganga

Transport of sediment across riverine flood plains contributes a significant but poorly constrained fraction of the total chemical weathering fluxes from rapidly eroding mountain belts which has impor- tant implications for chemical fluxes to the oceans and the impact of orogens on long term climate. We report water and bedload chemical analyses from the Ganges flood-plain, a major transit reservoir of sediment from the Himalayan orogen. Our data comprise six major southern tributaries to the Ganga, 31 additional analyses of major rivers from the Himalayan front in Nepal, 79 samples of the Ganga collected close to the mouth below the Farakka barrage every two weeks over three years and 67 water and 8 bedload samples from tributaries confined to the Ganga flood plain,. The flood plain tributaries are characterised by a shallow d 18 O - dD array, compared to the meteoric water line, with a low dD excess from evaporative loss from the flood plain which is mirrored in the higher dD excess of the mountain rivers in Nepal. The stable-isotope data confirms that the waters in the flood plain tributaries are domi- nantly derived from flood plain rainfall and not by redistribution of waters from the mountains. The flood plain tributaries are chemically distinct from the major Himalayan rivers. They can be divided into two groups. Tributaries from a small area around the Kosi river have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios > 0.75 and molar Na/Ca ratios as high as 6. Tributaries from the rest of the flood plain have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios <0.74 and most have Na/Ca ratios <1. One sample of the Gomti river and seven small adjacent tributaries have elevated Na concentrations likely caused by dissolution of Na carbonate salts. The compositions of the carbonate and silicate components of the sediments were determined from sequential leaches of floodplain bedloads and these were used to partition the dissolved cation load between silicate and car- bonate sources. The 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and Sr/Ca ratios of the carbonate inputs were derived from the ace- tic-acid leach compositions and silicate Na/Ca and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios derived from silicate residues from leaching. Modelling based on the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and Sr/Ca ratios of the carbonate inputs and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of the silicates indicates that the flood plain waters have lost up to 70% of their Ca (average ~ 50%) to precipitation of secondary calcite which is abundant as a diagenetic cement in the flood plain sedi- ments. 31% of the Sr, 8% of the Ca and 45% of the Mg are calculated to be derived from silicate miner- als. Because of significant evaporative loss of water across the flood plain, and in the absence of hy- drological data for flood plain tributaries, chemical weathering fluxes from the flood plain are best calculated by mass balance of the Na, K, Ca, Mg, Sr, SO 4 and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions of the inputs, comprising the flood plain tributaries, Himalayan rivers and southern rivers, with the chemical dis- charge in the Ganga at Farakka. The calculated fluxes from the flood plain for Na, K, Ca and Mg are within error of those estimated from changes in sediment chemistry across the flood plain (Lupker et al., 2012, Geochemica Cosmochimica Acta). Flood plain weathering supplies between 33 and 48% of the major cation and Sr fluxes and 58% of the alkalinity flux carried by the Ganga at Farakka which compares with 24% supplied by Himalayan rivers and 18% by the southern tributaries

Kajian Ritual Melaut dan Perubahannya pada Orang Bajo di Desa Tanjung Pinang Kecamatan Kusambi Kabupaten Muna

ABSTRACT This&nbsp; article&nbsp; discusses&nbsp; about&nbsp; the&nbsp; fishing&nbsp; ritual&nbsp; of Bajo&nbsp; ethnic in&nbsp; Tanjung Pinang village Kusambi district Muna regency. There are several things that become focus in this discussion that are&nbsp; the kinds of&nbsp; fishing&nbsp; ritual&nbsp; and its implementation of Bajo ethnic&nbsp; in the village of&nbsp; Tanjung Pinang. Then, analyze the changes of fishing ritual activities because&nbsp; the interaction with outside communities. The methods of data collection in this research are observation and interviews. The types of data in this study are primary and secondary data that analyzed by using qualitative data analysis. The results of this study indicated that the fishing ritual activities carried out when occur a decline of marine management and&nbsp; frequent accidents at sea. Aspects &nbsp;related to&nbsp; fishing&nbsp; ritual were religious,&nbsp; economic,&nbsp; psychological,&nbsp; democracy,&nbsp; environmental,&nbsp; social,&nbsp; and&nbsp; health&nbsp; aspects. The changes occurred in the form of the change of mindset and value in the community. The causes of the change was due to transmission constraints, the amalgamation, the high interaction with the outside communities,&nbsp; the inclusion of&nbsp; communication&nbsp; technology,&nbsp; electronic&nbsp; media&nbsp; and&nbsp; the influence of religious sects. Keywords: ritual, Bajo ethnic, change.ABSTRAK Artikel ini membahas tentang ritual melaut pada orang Bajo di Desa Tanjung Pinang Kecamatan Kusambi Kabupaten Muna. Ada beberapa hal yang menjadi fokus dalam pembahasan ini yaitu jenis-jenis ritual melaut yang terdapat pada orang Bajo di Desa Tanjung Pinang dan proses pelaksanaannya. Kemudian, melihat perubahan yang terjadi ada ritual melaut akibat hubungan interaksi dengan masyarakat luar. Metode yang digunakan untuk mengumpulkan data dalam penelitian ini yaitu metode pengamatan dan wawancara. Jenis data dalam penelitian ini yakni data sekunder dan data primer serta dianalisis dengan menggunakan analisis data kualitatif. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ritual aktivitas melaut dilaksanakan apabila terjadi penurunan hasil pengelolaan hasil laut dan sering terjadi kecelakaan di laut. Aspek-aspek yang berkaitan dengan ritual melaut adalah&nbsp; aspek religi, aspek ekonomi, aspek psikologis, aspek demokrasi, aspek lingkungan, aspek sosial, dan aspek kesehatan. Perubahan yang terjadi berupa perubahan pola pikir dan nilai-nilai yang ada di masyarakat.&nbsp; Hal tersebut disebabkan karena kendala transmisi, terjadinya amalgamasi, tingginya interaksi dengan masyarakat luar, masuknya teknologi komunikasi, media elektronik dan pengaruh berbagai aliran agama. Kata kunci: ritual, suku bajo, perubahan

Fetal Sex and RHD Genotyping with Digital PCR Demonstrates Greater Sensitivity than Real-time PCR.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive genotyping of fetal RHD (Rh blood group, D antigen) can prevent the unnecessary administration of prophylactic anti-D to women carrying RHD-negative fetuses. We evaluated laboratory methods for such genotyping. METHODS: Blood samples were collected in EDTA tubes and Streck® Cell-Free DNA™ blood collection tubes (Streck BCTs) from RHD-negative women (n = 46). Using Y-specific and RHD-specific targets, we investigated variation in the cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) fraction and determined the sensitivity achieved for optimal and suboptimal samples with a novel Droplet Digital™ PCR (ddPCR) platform compared with real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). RESULTS: The cffDNA fraction was significantly larger for samples collected in Streck BCTs compared with samples collected in EDTA tubes (P < 0.001). In samples expressing optimal cffDNA fractions (≥4%), both qPCR and digital PCR (dPCR) showed 100% sensitivity for the TSPY1 (testis-specific protein, Y-linked 1) and RHD7 (RHD exon 7) assays. Although dPCR also had 100% sensitivity for RHD5 (RHD exon 5), qPCR had reduced sensitivity (83%) for this target. For samples expressing suboptimal cffDNA fractions (<2%), dPCR achieved 100% sensitivity for all assays, whereas qPCR achieved 100% sensitivity only for the TSPY1 (multicopy target) assay. CONCLUSIONS: qPCR was not found to be an effective tool for RHD genotyping in suboptimal samples (<2% cffDNA). However, when testing the same suboptimal samples on the same day by dPCR, 100% sensitivity was achieved for both fetal sex determination and RHD genotyping. Use of dPCR for identification of fetal specific markers can reduce the occurrence of false-negative and inconclusive results, particularly when samples express high levels of background maternal cell-free DNA

Follow-up for breast cancer - the patients' view

Background: International and national guidelines (S3 guideline) for the surveillance of post-treatment breast cancer patients recommend a clinical follow-up including routine history and physical examination and regular mammograms. The practice of a clinical follow-up has been often discussed, but has been proven not to be inferior when compared to an intensified follow-up in randomized trials. Patients and Methods: The present manuscript reports the patients' view on the basis of a survey including 2000 patients with a history of breast cancer. Results: A total of 452 patients (22.6%) answered the questionnaire. The median age was 62 years (range 23-85 years). More than 80% of the patients were disease-free at the time of the survey. The need for surveillance was affirmed by the majority of patients (>95%), and one third stated that there was a need for more technical efforts during follow-up. In contrast to the follow-up guidelines, the results of the present survey indicated that most of the regularly scheduled follow-up visits were expanded using extensive laboratory and imaging procedures. Conclusion: This survey shows that the majority of physicians obviously do not accept the present follow-up guidelines. A new surveillance study investigating the efficacy of an intensified surveillance based on the improved possibilities of modern diagnostics and endocrine, immunotherapeutic, chemotherapeutic and interventional treatment options is warranted

A systematic analysis of experimental immunotherapies on tumors differing in size and duration of growth

We conducted a systematic analysis to determine the reason for the apparent disparity of success of immunotherapy between clinical and experimental cancers. To do this, we performed a search of PubMed using the keywords “immunotherapy” AND “cancer” for the years of 1980 and 2010. The midspread of experimental tumors used in all the relevant literature published in 2010 were between 0.5–121 mm3 in volume or had grown for four to eight days. Few studies reported large tumors that could be considered representative of clinical tumors, in terms of size and duration of growth. The predominant effect of cancer immunotherapies was slowed or delayed outgrowth. Regression of tumors larger than 200 mm3 was observed only after passive antibody or adoptive T cell therapy. The effectiveness of other types of immunotherapy was generally scattered. By comparison, very few publications retrieved by the 1980 search could meet our selection criteria; all of these used tumors smaller than 100 mm3, and none reported regression. In the entire year of 2010, only 13 used tumors larger than 400 mm3, and nine of these reported tumor regression. Together, these results indicate that most recent studies, using many diverse approaches, still treat small tumors only to report slowed or delayed growth. Nevertheless, a few recent studies indicate effective therapy against large tumors when using passive antibody or adoptive T cell therapy. For the future, we aspire to witness the increased use of experimental studies treating tumors that model clinical cancers in terms of size and duration of growth