QuantMig:The use of migration scenarios in future characterisations: A systematic review and typology

BackgroundMigration plays an increasingly important role in shaping the demographic profiles of developed countries and receives ample attention in society at large as well as among policymakers. To understand how migration flows might evolve in the future, the QuantMig project set the goal of producing migration scenarios to support European migration policy. To do so, we need to make clear with what purpose scenarios are developed, how they are developed, and on which flows they focus. Other questions concern whether they are designed to describe the most likely future or a possible future, whether they are extrapolating trends observed in the past (assuming no fundamental changes in policies), or whether they are designed to describe desirable futures (migration as a panacea for ageing societies) or undesirable futures (massive inflow of immigration from developing countries). To produce the best possible migration scenarios, it is essential to get an overview of the literature. Migration scenarios have been used in a variety of future characterisations including forecasts, projections, and foresights. However, the term migration scenario is rarely well-defined or used consistently. Before developing a set of own scenarios, this document takes the necessary step of providing an overview of the existing literature and provide a definition and typology of migration scenarios. Based on this work, alternative ways of exploring the future of migration (for example in a vignette survey) will be discussed that lay out the bases for the extension of the work in the next deliverables of the work package. MethodsThis document looks at how migration scenarios are used in the literature presenting characterisations of societies’ futures. Relevant documents are systematically retrieved and assigned to one of six categories part of a pre-established typology. The typology rests on the focus (either migration or another aspect of societies influenced by migration) and purpose (either to predict the future, explore the future, or establish how a specific target can be reached) of each future characterisation. Subsequently, the techniques used for generating migration scenarios are described in terms of the approach taken (quantitative or qualitative) and how data is generated and transformed into meaningful output. Finally, the specific geographical context and characteristics of migration and migrants included in the scenarios are explored. ResultsA total of 107 documents were analysed. More than half presented migration scenarios that were developed to answer questions not about migration itself, but about its influence on a population’s future growth, age composition, or economic performance, among others. Future characterisations had most often prediction as purpose, being for example population forecasts, while many others had exploration as purpose, where the sensitivity of a given phenomenon to different migration assumptions is assessed. Most scenarios rest on a quantitative approach rather than on a narrative, but the latter has clearly expanded in the last years. Migration scenarios that follow a quantitative approach often rest on past migration trends to characterise the future, but seldom provide likelihoods that a given scenario will realise. Migration scenarios that follow a qualitative approach, on the other hand, often rest on experts and stakeholders’ views for input, or rely on previously developed storylines. Finally, quantitative scenarios often concentrate on net migration figures inside of a single, usually economically developed country, while qualitative scenarios are more likely to consider bidirectional flows between two (world) regions. ConclusionsThere was an increase over time in the use of qualitative scenarios to characterise the future of migration. However, these scenarios were seldom used to translate storylines into quantitative outputs that specifically aim at predicting future migration flows. Ways to achieve this are discussed, including more advanced data collection techniques among experts and stakeholders, and the consideration of multiple types of migration

QuantMig:The use of migration scenarios in future characterisations: A systematic review and typology

BackgroundMigration plays an increasingly important role in shaping the demographic profiles of developed countries and receives ample attention in society at large as well as among policymakers. To understand how migration flows might evolve in the future, the QuantMig project set the goal of producing migration scenarios to support European migration policy. To do so, we need to make clear with what purpose scenarios are developed, how they are developed, and on which flows they focus. Other questions concern whether they are designed to describe the most likely future or a possible future, whether they are extrapolating trends observed in the past (assuming no fundamental changes in policies), or whether they are designed to describe desirable futures (migration as a panacea for ageing societies) or undesirable futures (massive inflow of immigration from developing countries). To produce the best possible migration scenarios, it is essential to get an overview of the literature. Migration scenarios have been used in a variety of future characterisations including forecasts, projections, and foresights. However, the term migration scenario is rarely well-defined or used consistently. Before developing a set of own scenarios, this document takes the necessary step of providing an overview of the existing literature and provide a definition and typology of migration scenarios. Based on this work, alternative ways of exploring the future of migration (for example in a vignette survey) will be discussed that lay out the bases for the extension of the work in the next deliverables of the work package. MethodsThis document looks at how migration scenarios are used in the literature presenting characterisations of societies’ futures. Relevant documents are systematically retrieved and assigned to one of six categories part of a pre-established typology. The typology rests on the focus (either migration or another aspect of societies influenced by migration) and purpose (either to predict the future, explore the future, or establish how a specific target can be reached) of each future characterisation. Subsequently, the techniques used for generating migration scenarios are described in terms of the approach taken (quantitative or qualitative) and how data is generated and transformed into meaningful output. Finally, the specific geographical context and characteristics of migration and migrants included in the scenarios are explored. ResultsA total of 107 documents were analysed. More than half presented migration scenarios that were developed to answer questions not about migration itself, but about its influence on a population’s future growth, age composition, or economic performance, among others. Future characterisations had most often prediction as purpose, being for example population forecasts, while many others had exploration as purpose, where the sensitivity of a given phenomenon to different migration assumptions is assessed. Most scenarios rest on a quantitative approach rather than on a narrative, but the latter has clearly expanded in the last years. Migration scenarios that follow a quantitative approach often rest on past migration trends to characterise the future, but seldom provide likelihoods that a given scenario will realise. Migration scenarios that follow a qualitative approach, on the other hand, often rest on experts and stakeholders’ views for input, or rely on previously developed storylines. Finally, quantitative scenarios often concentrate on net migration figures inside of a single, usually economically developed country, while qualitative scenarios are more likely to consider bidirectional flows between two (world) regions. ConclusionsThere was an increase over time in the use of qualitative scenarios to characterise the future of migration. However, these scenarios were seldom used to translate storylines into quantitative outputs that specifically aim at predicting future migration flows. Ways to achieve this are discussed, including more advanced data collection techniques among experts and stakeholders, and the consideration of multiple types of migration

Low percentage of clinically relevant pistachio nut and mango co-sensitisation in cashew nut sensitised children

Background: Cashew nut, pistachio nut and mango belong to the Anacardiaceae family and are botanically related. Therefore, cashew nut sensitised children are frequently advised to eliminate cashew nuts and pistachio nuts from their diet. The ‘Improvement of Diagnostic mEthods for ALlergy assessment (IDEAL trial number NTR3572) study showed that cashew nut sensitised children were co-sensitised to pistachio nut in 98% of cases and to mango in 21% of cases. The aim of this follow-up study to IDEAL is to assess the clinical relevance of co-sensitisation to pistachio nut and mango in cashew nut sensitised children. Methods: Children were recruited from the study: ‘Improvement of Diagnostic mEthods for ALlergy assessment (IDEAL trial number NTR3572). Inclusion criterion for the IDEAL study was sensitization to cashew nut as demonstrated by either SPT or sIgE, and a clinical history of reactions to cashew nuts or no previous (known) exposure. Sensitized children who were tolerant to cashew nuts were excluded. Inclusion criterion for this IDEAL follow-up study was co-sensitization to pistachio nut, regardless the result of the DBPCFC with cashew nut. In this follow-up study a double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge with pistachio nut and an open food challenge with mango were performed. Results: Twenty-nine children (mean age of 11.6 years, 62% male) were included. Pistachio nut sensitisation was clinically relevant in only 34% of cashew-sensitised children and only 31% of cashew challenge positive children. None of the children was challenge positive to mango. Conclusion: Although co-sensitisation between cashew nut and pistachio nut was observed in 98%, pistachio nut sensitisation was only clinically relevant in 34% of the children. Therefore, a challenge test with pistachio nut is recommended in children with cashew nut and pistachio nut sensitisation.</p

Association of physical activity and sports participation with insulin resistance and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in people with type 1 diabetes

Aim: To evaluate the association between physical activity (PA) and sports participation with insulin resistance and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Methods: People with T1D from a secondary and tertiary care centre were included. Questionnaire-derived PA was expressed in metabolic equivalent of task hours per week (METh/week). Insulin sensitivity was calculated with the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR). NAFLD was assessed by transient elastography (TE). Multivariate linear and logistic regression models were conducted, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration and BMI. Results: In total, 254 participants were included (men 56%, age 44 ± 14 years, diabetes duration 24 ± 14 years, median BMI 24.8 kg/m2), of which 150 participants underwent TE. Total PA (median 50.7 METh/week) was not significantly associated with insulin resistance (median eGDR 7.31 mg/kg/min) (beta −0.00, 95% CI −0.01 to 0.00) or with NAFLD (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99–1.01). Participating in sports was significantly associated with eGDR (beta 0.94, 95% CI 0.48–1.41) and with NAFLD (OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08–0.56). Conclusions: In our T1D population, we could not find any dose-dependent association between PA, insulin resistance and NAFLD. People participating in sports had a lower degree of insulin resistance and lower odds for NAFLD

High Resolution Genotyping of Clinical Aspergillus flavus Isolates from India Using Microsatellites

Contains fulltext : 124312.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Worldwide, Aspergillus flavus is the second leading cause of allergic, invasive and colonizing fungal diseases in humans. However, it is the most common species causing fungal rhinosinusitis and eye infections in tropical countries. Despite the growing challenges due to A. flavus, the molecular epidemiology of this fungus has not been well studied. We evaluated the use of microsatellites for high resolution genotyping of A. flavus from India and a possible connection between clinical presentation and genotype of the involved isolate. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A panel of nine microsatellite markers were selected from the genome of A. flavus NRRL 3357. These markers were used to type 162 clinical isolates of A. flavus. All nine markers proved to be polymorphic displaying up to 33 alleles per marker. Thirteen isolates proved to be a mixture of different genotypes. Among the 149 pure isolates, 124 different genotypes could be recognized. The discriminatory power (D) for the individual markers ranged from 0.657 to 0.954. The D value of the panel of nine markers combined was 0.997. The multiplex multicolor approach was instrumental in rapid typing of a large number of isolates. There was no correlation between genotype and the clinical presentation of the infection. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There is a large genotypic diversity in clinical A. flavus isolates from India. The presence of more than one genotype in clinical samples illustrates the possibility that persons may be colonized by multiple genotypes and that any isolate from a clinical specimen is not necessarily the one actually causing infection. Microsatellites are excellent typing targets for discriminating between A. flavus isolates from various origins

Prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its association with surrogate markers of insulin resistance in patients with type 1 diabetes

Aims: Assess prevalence of hepatic steatosis (HS) and of fibrosis in an unselected population of patients with type 1 diabetes. Describe their clinical profile and explore the association between insulin resistance and NAFLD as secondary objectives. Methods: We prospectively assessed NAFLD by transient elastography in adult outpatients with type 1 diabetes. Patients were eligible if they did not have any known secondary cause of liver disease. NAFLD was defined as HS with or without fibrosis/cirrhosis. Associations between estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and metabolic syndrome, as surrogate markers of insulin resistance, and NAFLD were explored using multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for age, sex and diabetes duration. Results: We enrolled 150 consecutive subjects (age 47 ± 14 years, male 55%, diabetes duration 25 ± 14 years, median BMI 25 kg/m2). NAFLD prevalence was 20% (n = 30). Thirty patients (20%) had HS. Five patients (3.3%) had HS with fibrosis. eGDR and metabolic syndrome were statistically significantly associated with the presence of NAFLD (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.49–0.77, OR 7.62, 95% CI 2.95–19.77). Conclusions: NAFLD prevalence in patients with type 1 diabetes is considerable, mainly restricted to isolated HS, while fibrosis is rare. Insulin resistance is associated with NAFLD in patients with type 1 diabetes