Life on a Warmer Earth - Possible Climatic Consequences of Man-Made Global Warming

An IIASA Executive Report based on and IIASA research report by H. Flohn, who has taken a paleoclimatic approach to gaining insights into the implications of global warming produced by he burning of fossil fuels. Using the most reliable radiation models for the relation between carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and temperature, Flohn selects thresholds of temperature increase, which he then speculates would produce climatic conditions similar to those of earlier periods in the earth's history. He establishes a four-part scenario. An increase in the global average surface temperature (GAST) of 1 degree C, which could occur around 2000-2010 at the projected rate of fossil fuel consumption, would correspond to the GAST 1,000 years ago during the early middle ages. Warming of 1.5 degrees C could occur around 2005-2030, mimicking conditions 6000 years ago at the peak of the Holocene period. Warming of 2.5 degrees C is considered possible around 2020-2050, corresponding to the last interglacial period 120,000 years ago. Finally, an increase of the GAST by 4 degrees C could be reached 2040-2080, producing conditions that occurred during the late Tertiary Period from 2.5 to 12 million years ago, a remarkable epoch when the North Pole became ice free while the South Pole remained glaciated. The Executive Report briefly describe what is known and generally assumed about the climate of the earth during each of the four periods

Possible Climatic Consequences of a Man-Made Global Warming

There is increasing concern about man's impact on climate. Studying this problem one comes to realize that this influence is not so much felt as a variation of the average values of global climate, such as temperature and pressure. Of concern is instead a change in the climatological patterns, with the average values changing very little. Actually this could be a change in rainfall patterns, for example. Among other effects, increasing levels of carbon dioxide could cause a man-made global warming. While it is impossible to determine such changes in climate patterns given the present state of the art, we consider it perhaps useful to study the changes that occurred in the climate patterns of the past. Today's highly sophisticated knowledge in paleometeorology allows to undertake such a venture -- a research activity that may also be crucial for our understanding of the forthcoming CO2 problem

Ein geophysikalisches Eiszeit-Modell

Auf der Grundlage der jüngsten Fortschritte in vielen Zweigen der Geophysik — Glaziologie, Meteorologie, Ozeanographie, Paläomagnetismus und Tektonophysik — wird ein synthetisches, rein geophysikalisches Modell der Klimaentwicklung im Tertiär und Pleistozän (mit Ausblicken auf das Permokarbon) entwickelt. Hierbei wird besonderes Gewicht auf die Abschätzung des Wärmehaushaltes der Ozeane gelegt; extraterrestrische Faktoren liefern höchstens einen sekundären Beitrag. Als Unterlage für eine weitere Diskussion wird eine knappe Zusammenstellung der wesentlichen Gesichtspunkte in Form von 10 Sätzen (Kapitel 6) gegeben.researc

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution. During the past four decades, many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations. The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification, but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further. This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment, summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift, phased uplift and sub-regional uplift, and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts. From previous modeling results, the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon. However, the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia, the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body, especially the northern part of the TP. In this review, we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors, origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon, feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift. Finally, we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records, discuss their uncertainties, and highlight some problems worthy of further studying

Future global warming from atmospheric trace gases

Human activity this century has increased the concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, which in turn has elevated global surface temperatures by blocking the escape of thermal infrared radiation. Natural climate variations are masking this temperature increase, but further additions of trace gases during the next 65 years could double or even quadruple the present effects, causing the global average temperature to rise by at least 1 °C and possibly by more than 5 °C. If the rise continues into the twenty-second century, the global average temperature may reach higher values than have occurred in the past 10 million years. © 1986 Nature Publishing Group