The effect of correlation between demands on hierarchical forecasting

The forecasting needs for inventory control purposes are hierarchical. For SKUs in a product family or a SKU stored across different depot locations, forecasts can be made from the individual series’ history or derived top-down. Many discussions have been found in the literature, but it is not clear under what conditions one approach is better than the other. Correlation between demands has been identified as a very important factor to affect the performance of the two approaches, but there has been much confusion on whether positive or negative correlation. This paper summarises the conflicting discussions in the literature, argues that it is negative correlation that benefits the top-down or grouping approach, and quantifies the effect of correlation through simulation experiments

Towards an understanding of hole superconductivity

From the very beginning K. Alex M\"uller emphasized that the materials he and George Bednorz discovered in 1986 were $hole$ superconductors. Here I would like to share with him and others what I believe to be $the$ key reason for why high $T_c$ cuprates as well as all other superconductors are hole superconductors, which I only came to understand a few months ago. This paper is dedicated to Alex M\"uller on the occasion of his 90th birthday.Comment: Dedicated to Alex M\"uller on the Occasion of his 90th Birthday. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1703.0977

Phase behaviour of DNA in presence of DNA-binding proteins

To characterize the thermodynamical equilibrium of DNA chains interacting with a solution of non-specific binding proteins, a Flory-Huggins free energy model was implemented. We explored the dependence on DNA and protein concentrations of the DNA collapse. For physiologically relevant values of the DNA-protein affinity, this collapse gives rise to a biphasic regime with a dense and a dilute phase; the corresponding phase diagram was computed. Using an approach based on Hamiltonian paths, we show that the dense phase has either a molten globule or a crystalline structure, depending on the DNA bending rigidity, which is influenced by the ionic strength. These results are valid at the thermodynamical equilibrium and should therefore be consistent with many biological processes, whose characteristic timescales range typically from 1 ms to 10 s. Our model may thus be applied to biological phenomena that involve DNA-binding proteins, such as DNA condensation with crystalline order, which occurs in some bacteria to protect their chromosome from detrimental factors; or transcription initiation, which occurs in clusters called transcription factories that are reminiscent of the dense phase characterized in this study.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication at The Biophysical Journa

Analyzing X-ray variability by State Space Models

In recent years, autoregressive models have had a profound impact on the description of astronomical time series as the observation of a stochastic process. These methods have advantages compared with common Fourier techniques concerning their inherent stationarity and physical background. If autoregressive models are used, however, it has to be taken into account that real data always contain observational noise often obscuring the intrinsic time series of the object. We apply the technique of a Linear State Space Model which explicitly models the noise of astronomical data and allows to estimate the hidden autoregressive process. As an example, we have analysed a sample of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) observed with EXOSAT and found evidence for a relationship between the relaxation timescale and the spectral hardness.Comment: 4 pages, Latex, uses Kluwer Style file crckapb.cls To appear in Proc. of Astronomical Time Series, Tel Aviv, 199

Noncommutative gauge fields coupled to noncommutative gravity

We present a noncommutative (NC) version of the action for vielbein gravity coupled to gauge fields. Noncommutativity is encoded in a twisted star product between forms, with a set of commuting background vector fields defining the (abelian) twist. A first order action for the gauge fields avoids the use of the Hodge dual. The NC action is invariant under diffeomorphisms and twisted gauge transformations. The Seiberg-Witten map, adapted to our geometric setting and generalized for an arbitrary abelian twist, allows to re-express the NC action in terms of classical fields: the result is a deformed action, invariant under diffeomorphisms and usual gauge transformations. This deformed action is a particular higher derivative extension of the Einstein-Hilbert action coupled to Yang-Mills fields, and to the background vector fields defining the twist. Here noncommutativity of the original NC action dictates the precise form of this extension. We explicitly compute the first order correction in the NC parameter of the deformed action, and find that it is proportional to cubic products of the gauge field strength and to the symmetric anomaly tensor D_{IJK}.Comment: 18 pages, LaTe

The role of traction in membrane curvature generation.

Curvature of biological membranes can be generated by a variety of molecular mechanisms including protein scaffolding, compositional heterogeneity, and cytoskeletal forces. These mechanisms have the net effect of generating tractions (force per unit length) on the bilayer that are translated into distinct shapes of the membrane. Here, we demonstrate how the local shape of the membrane can be used to infer the traction acting locally on the membrane. We show that buds and tubes, two common membrane deformations studied in trafficking processes, have different traction distributions along the membrane and that these tractions are specific to the molecular mechanism used to generate these shapes. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of an axial force applied to the membrane as well as that of an effective line tension can be calculated from these tractions. Finally, we consider the sensitivity of these quantities with respect to uncertainties in material properties and follow with a discussion on sources of uncertainty in membrane shape

Prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairment in Muyuka: a rural health district in South West Province, Cameroon.

AIM: To estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairment in the population aged 40 years and over in Muyuka, a rural district in the South West Province of Cameroon. METHODS: A multistage cluster random sampling methodology was used to select 20 clusters of 100 people each. In each cluster households were randomly selected and all eligible people had their visual acuity (VA) measured by an ophthalmic nurse. Those with VA <6/18 were examined by an ophthalmologist. RESULTS: 1787 people were examined (response rate 89.3%). The prevalence of binocular blindness was 1.6% (95% CI: 0.8% to 2.4%), 2.2% (1.% to 3.1%) for binocular severe visual impairment, and 6.4% (5.0% to 7.8%) for binocular visual impairment. Cataract was the main cause of blindness (62.1%), severe visual impairment (65.0%), and visual impairment (40.0%). Refractive error was an important cause of severe visual impairment (15.0%) and visual impairment (22.5%). The cataract surgical coverage for people was 55% at the <3/60 level and 33% at the <6/60 level. 64.3% of eyes operated for cataract had poor visual outcome (presenting VA<6/60). CONCLUSIONS: Strategies should be developed to make cataract services affordable and accessible to the population in the rural areas. There is an urgent need to improve the outcome of cataract surgery. Refractive error services should be provided at the community level

Permission form synopses to improve parents' understanding of research: a randomized trial.

ObjectiveWe hypothesized that, among parents of potential neonatal research subjects, an accompanying cover sheet added to the permission form (intervention) would increase understanding of the research, when compared to a standard form (control).Study designThis pilot study enrolled parents approached for one of two index studies: one randomized trial and one observational study. A one-page cover sheet described critical study information. Families were randomized 1:1 to receive the cover sheet or not. Objective and subjective understanding and satisfaction were measured.ResultsThirty-two parents completed all measures (17 control, 15 intervention). There were no differences in comprehension score (16.8±5.7 vs 16.3±3.5), subjective understanding (median 6 vs 6.5), or overall satisfaction with consent (median 7 vs 6.5) between control and intervention groups (all P&gt;0.50).ConclusionA simplified permission form cover sheet had no effect on parents' understanding of studies for which their newborns were being recruited

Protein sliding and hopping kinetics on DNA

Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we deconvolved the sliding and hopping kinetics of GFP-LacI proteins on elongated DNA from their experimentally observed seconds-long diffusion trajectories. Our simulations suggest the following results: (1) in each diffusion trajectory, a protein makes on average hundreds of alternating slides and hops with a mean sliding time of several tens of ms; (2) sliding dominates the root mean square displacement of fast diffusion trajectories, whereas hopping dominates slow ones; (3) flow and variations in salt concentration have limited effects on hopping kinetics, while in vivo DNA configuration is not expected to influence sliding kinetics; furthermore, (4) the rate of occurrence for hops longer than 200 nm agrees with experimental data for EcoRV proteins