TRADE LIBERALISATION UNDER THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; OPTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AFRICA

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope.International Relations/Trade,

Togo: Thorny transition and misguided aid at the roots of economic misery

The parliamentary elections of October 2007, the first free Togolese elections since decades, were meant to correct at least partially the rigged presidential elections of 2005. Western donors considered it as a litmus test of despotic African regimes’ propensity to change towards democratization and economic prosperity. They took Togo as model to test their approach of political conditionality of aid, which had been emphasised also as corner stone of the joint EU-Africa strategy. Empirical findings on the linkage between democratization and economic performance are challenged in this paper because of its basic data deficiencies. It is open to question, whether Togo’s expected economic consolidation and growth will be due to democratization of its institutions or to the improved external environment, notably the growing competition between global players for African natural resources

North African Countries and Agricultural Trade Liberalization Under the Doha Round: Does a Top-Down Analysis Matters?

The countries of North Africa are characterized by a relatively high contribution of agriculture sector in their economies. At the same time, all the countries in the region are net agricultural importers. In this context, any potential agreement on agricultural trade liberalization under the Doha Round multilateral negotiations will raises world agricultural prices and could adversely affect the region. Although there are numerous studies on the impact of multilateral agricultural trade liberalization on North African countries, few studies have examined the impact of these global changes on the agricultural sector and on income distribution. Moreover, all the past studies use either global or country CGE models. This study attempts to address this gap in the literature. First, it combines the advantages of global and country models by linking the MIRAGE model to two countries dynamic CGE models built specially for this study. Second, we examine the distributional impact of agricultural trade liberalization in the two countries by integrating individually various household categories in both models. Our results show that drawing policy implications from global models for a specific country is completely misleading. In fact, while the results of the global model show that Tunisia will be winner and Morocco a loser from agricultural trade liberalization, the country models show a completely different picture. For both countries, results show that while the macroeconomic effects are relatively modest, all categories of households lose

Effect of Preservation and Transport Conditions on SCC in Cow Milk and Losses of Precision Associated with Time Left Before Analysis

The effect of preservation agents (without preservation, potassium dichromate, and bronopol) on the somatic cell count (SCC) of individual cow milk samples was studied at two different times during lactation. Using the fossomatic method, 1050 (experiment 1) and 924 (experiment 2) SCC measurements were carried out on milk samples from 25 and 22 cows of the same lot, respectively. In addition, each individual milk sample was divided into several aliquots and analyzed at different times postcollection (5h, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 days) to evaluate the loss of precision associated to each milk age, depending on whether aliquots were preserved, refrigerated, or not refrigerated. Preservation and refrigeration during milk transport had no significant effects on SCCs in both experiments, which differed in milk SCC levels. Accuracy associated to milk age depended on the lactation stage; errors were much lower when milk was more abundant and the SCC level was thus lower. For practical reasons, milk analysis for SCC should be carried out at the latest 48h postcollection

TRADE LIBERALISATION UNDER THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; OPTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AFRICA

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope