Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. This paper stems from discussions during the Ettersburg Ecohydrology Workshop in Germany (October 2018), with the corresponding manuscript preparation ensuing in subsequent months. The workshop was funded by the UNIDEL Foundation, Inc. and the University of Delaware. Accordingly, partial support for this paper derived from funding for the workshop. A.M. was supported by the US NSF (Grants NSF-AGS-1644382 and NSF-IOS-175489).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Stochastic modeling of salt accumulation in the root zone due to capillary flux from brackish groundwater

Groundwater can be a source of both water and salts in semiarid areas, and therefore, capillary pressure–induced upward water flow may cause root zone salinization. To identify which conditions result in hazardous salt concentrations in the root zone, we combined the mass balance equations for salt and water, further assuming a Poisson-distributed daily rainfall and brackish groundwater quality. For the water fluxes (leaching, capillary upflow, and evapotranspiration), we account for osmotic effects of the dissolved salt mass using Van‘t Hoff's law. Root zone salinity depends on salt transport via capillary flux and on evapotranspiration, which concentrates salt in the root zone. Both a wet climate and shallow groundwater lead to wetter root zone conditions, which in combination with periodic rainfall enhances salt removal by leaching. For wet climates, root zone salinity (concentrations) increases as groundwater is more shallow (larger groundwater influence). For dry climates, salinity increases as groundwater is deeper because of a drier root zone and less leaching. For intermediate climates, opposing effects can push the salt balance either way. Root zone salinity increases almost linearly with groundwater salinity. With a simple analytical approximation, maximum concentrations can be related to the mean capillary flow rate, leaching rate, water saturation, and groundwater salinity for different soils, climates, and groundwater depths