The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Medical Research Council-UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1); Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1); European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655); N. Scovronick was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776); Y. Honda was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (JPMEERF15S11412); J. Jaakkola was supported by Academy of Finland (Grant No. 310372); V. Huber was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (Grant ID: PCIN-2017-046) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Grant ID: 01LS1201A2); J Kysely and A. Urban were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant ID: 20-28560S); J. Madureira was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016); S. Rao and F. di Ruscio were supported by European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project EXHAUSTION (Grant ID: 820655); M. Hashizume was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP, Grant Number JPMJSC20E4; Y. Guo was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (#APP1163693); S. Lee was support by the Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (#APP1109193)

Polymorphisms in GSTT1 and p53 and urinary transitional cell carcinoma in south-western Taiwan: A preliminary study

Little is known about the relevance of genetic polymorphisms to arsenic-related bladder cancer. A preliminary case-control study was conducted to explore the association between genetic polymorphisms of GSTT1, p53 codon 72 and bladder cancer in southern Taiwan, a former high arsenic exposure area. Fifty-nine urinary transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients from a referral centre in south-western Taiwan and 81 community controls matched on residence were recruited from 1996 to 1999. A questionnaire was administered to obtain arsenic exposure and general health information. Genotypes of p53 codon 72 and GSTT1 were analysed by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymerase. The combined variant genotypes (heterozygous or homozygous variant) of p53 codon 72 and GSTT1 null were observed in 29% of cases and in 44% of controls, respectively. In this preliminary study, bladder cancer risk was slightly elevated for subjects carrying the variant genotype of p53 codon 72 or in subjects carrying the GSTT1 null genotype. Variants in p53 codon 72 increased the risk of bladder cancer among smokers. However, the results were not statistically significant and larger confirmatory studies are needed to clarify the role of candidate gene polymorphisms and bladder cancer risk in arsenic exposed populations. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd

Early-life or lifetime sun exposure, sun reaction, and the risk of squamous cell carcinoma in an Asian population

Background It has been widely accepted that sun exposure is a risk factor of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among fair-skinned populations. However, sun exposure and sun reaction have not been explored in Asians and no gender-specific data were available. Method In a case-control study, 176 incident skin cancer cases were recruited from National Cheng-Kung University Medical Center from 1996 to 1999. Controls included 216 age-, gender-, and residency-matched subjects from the southwestern Taiwan. A questionnaire was administered to collect information on life style and other risk factors. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between sun exposure or sun reaction and the risk of SCC by gender. Results Early-age (age 15 to 24) and lifetime sun exposure were significantly associated with increased risk of SCC in a dose-response pattern [odds ratio (OR) = 1.49-3.08, trend p = 0.009 and 0.0007, respectively]. After stratified by gender, the third tertile of early-age sun exposure was significantly associated with the SCC risk among men (OR = 3.08). The second and third tertiles of lifetime sun exposure was significantly associated with SCC risk among women (OR = 3.78 and 4.53, respectively). Skin reaction after 2-h sun exposure during childhood and adolescence was not significantly associated with the risk of SCC. Conclusions Lifetime sun exposure was more related to SCC risk in women, while early-age sun exposure was more relevant to men's SCC risk. This may be attributable to different lifestyle between men and women. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Arsenic methylation and skin cancer risk in Southwestern Taiwan

Arsenic is a known carcinogen, but data are especially lacking on the health effects of low-level exposure, and on the health significance of methylation ability We conducted a case-control study (76 cases and 224 controls from 1996 to 1999) in southwestern Taiwan to explore the association among primary and secondary arsenic methylation index (PMI and SMI, respectively), cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE), and the risk of skin cancer. As compared with the controls, the skin cancer group reported more sun exposure (P = 0.02) and had a lower BMI (P = 0.03), as well as lower education level (P = 0.01). Skin cancer patients and controls were similar with regard to age, gender, smoking and alcohol consumption. Given a low SMI (≤5), CAE > 15 mg/L-year was associated with an increased risk of skin cancer (OR, 7.48; 95% CI, 1.65-33.99) compared to a CAE ≤ 2 mg/L-year. Given the same level of PMI, SMI, and CAE, men had a higher risk of skin cancer (OR, 4.04; 95% CI, 1.46-11.22) when compared to women. Subjects with low SMI and high CAE have a substantially increased risk of skin cancer. Males in all strata of arsenic exposure and methylation ability had a higher risk of skin cancer than women

Genetic polymorphism in p53 codon 72 and skin cancer in southwestern Taiwan

The Pro/Pro polymorphism of p53 codon 72 has been reported to be related to bladder and lung cancer, but its relationship with skin cancer is unclear. We assessed the hypothesis that there is a relationship between the p53 codon 72, Pro/Pro polymorphism, cumulative arsenic exposure, and the risk of skin cancer in a hospital-based case-control study in southwestern Taiwan. From 1996 to 1999, 93 newly-diagnosed skin cancer patients at the National Cheng-Kung University (NCKU) Hospital and 71 community controls matched on residence were recruited in southwestern Taiwan. The genotype of p53 codon 72 (Arg/Arg, Arg/Pro, or Pro/Pro) was determined for all subjects by polymerase chain reaction-restricted fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). A questionnaire was administered to each subject for collection of demographic information, personal habits, disease history, diet information, and other relevant questions. The Pro/Pro (homozygous) genotype was more frequent in skin cancer patients (cases, 20%; controls, 12%; P = 0.37). Subjects with the susceptible genotype Pro/Pro and heterozygous (intermediate) genotype Pro/Arg had 2.18 and 0.99 times risk of skin cancer than the wild type Arg/Arg (95% confidence interval, 0.74-4.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-2.21), respectively. Compared with subjects with 18.5 18.5 had 5.78 times risk of skin cancer (95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 31.36) after adjusting for other risk factors. There was no interaction between BMI and genotype, but the sample size was small. The risk of skin cancer did not significantly vary by tumor cell-type. The risk of skin cancer is increased in individuals with the Pro/Pro genotype. Larger, confirmatory studies are needed to clarify the role of constitutional polymorphisms in p53 and skin cancer risk

Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study

Background: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. Methods: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985–2015) and future (2020–99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. Findings: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by −0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2–7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4–10·3% in 2090–99. Interpretation: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health. Funding: Korea Ministry of Environment.Funding: Korea Ministry of Environment

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

© 2019 The Authors. An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.National Research Foundation of Korea; Medical Research Council UK; Natural Environment Research Council UK; Czech Science Foundation; Estonian Ministry of Education and Research; Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland; Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency; Japan Society for the Promotion of Scienc