on the use of arima models for short term water tank levels forecasting

Abstract In this paper a statistical study on the time series of water levels measured, during 2014, in the water tank of Cesine, Avellino (Italy), is presented. In particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methodology is applied to model and forecast the daily water levels. This technique combines the autoregression and the moving average approaches, with the possibility to differentiate the data, to make the series stationary. In order to better describe the trend, over time, of the water levels in the reservoir, three ARIMA models are calibrated, validated and compared: ARIMA (2,0,2), ARIMA (3,1,3), ARIMA (6,1,6). After a preliminary statistical characterization of the series, the models' parameters are calibrated on the data related to the first 11 months of 2014, in order to keep the last month of data for validating the results. For each model, a graphical comparison with the observed data is presented, together with the calculation of the summary statistics of the residuals and of some error metrics. The results are discussed and some further possible applications are highlighted in the conclusions

Working with children who are victims of abuse: Emotions and representations of professionals in residential children's communities

Professionals who work in residential children's communities face many difficulties and, when the hosted children have a history of abuse and maltreatment, the risk of vicarious traumatization and professional burn-out, which has a negative effect on the professional's work and well-being as well as on the effectiveness at work, is very high. This qualitative study aims to explore, via the content analysis of text recorded in some Photolangage® groups, the representations of social workers and educators in residential children's communities on the theme of work management of physical and sexual abuse victims. The participants were 37 social workers from 6 residential communities for 0-6 years old child in the region of Palermo (Italy). The analysis of the discourse revealed four main themes: "emotional responses", "difficulty in coping with emotions related to abuse", "relationship with the institutional network" and "work methods/strategies", which seem to guide and inform the social workers in our daily relationship with children. These results, which are in line with clinical observations, indicate the importance of supporting, through tools such as supervision and analysis of professional practices, professionals who work with maltreated and abused children, the only way to protect their well-being and the "therapeutic role" in the care and protection of children which they fulfil

Sphingosine-1-Phosphate in the Tumor Microenvironment: A Signaling Hub Regulating Cancer Hallmarks

As a key hub of malignant properties, the cancer microenvironment plays a crucial role intimately connected to tumor properties. Accumulating evidence supports that the lysophospholipid sphingosine-1-phosphate acts as a key signal in the cancer extracellular milieu. In this review, we have a particular focus on glioblastoma, representative of a highly aggressive and deleterious neoplasm in humans. First, we highlight recent advances and emerging concepts for how tumor cells and different recruited normal cells contribute to the sphingosine-1-phosphate enrichment in the cancer microenvironment. Then, we describe and discuss how sphingosine-1-phosphate signaling contributes to favor cancer hallmarks including enhancement of proliferation, stemness, invasion, death resistance, angiogenesis, immune evasion and, possibly, aberrant metabolism. We also discuss the potential of how sphingosine-1-phosphate control mechanisms are coordinated across distinct cancer microenvironments. Further progress in understanding the role of S1P signaling in cancer will depend crucially on increasing knowledge of its participation in the tumor microenvironment

Visuo-spatial cognition in Williams syndrome: Reviewing and accounting for the strengths and weaknesses in performance

Individuals with Williams syndrome typically show relatively poor visuo-spatial abilities in comparison to stronger verbal skills. However, individuals' level of performance is not consistent across all visuo-spatial tasks. The studies assessing visuo-spatial functioning in Williams syndrome are critically reviewed, in order to provide a clear pattern of the relative difficulty of these tasks. This prompts a possible explanation of the variability in performance seen which focuses on the processing demands of some of these tasks. Individuals with Williams syndrome show an atypical processing style on tests of construction, which does not affect tests of perception

Observation of the Shadowing of Cosmic Rays by the Moon using a Deep Underground Detector

Using data collected by the MACRO experiment during the years 1989-1996, we show evidence for the shadow of the moon in the underground cosmic ray flux with a significance of 3.6 sigma. This detection of the shadowing effect is the first by an underground detector. A maximum-likelihood analysis is used to determine that the angular resolution of the apparatus is 0.9+/-0.3 degrees. These results demonstrate MACRO's capabilities as a muon telescope by confirming its absolute pointing ability and quantifying its angular resolution.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures Submitted to Phys. Rev.

The Observation of Up-going Charged Particles Produced by High Energy Muons in Underground Detectors

An experimental study of the production of up-going charged particles in inelastic interactions of down-going underground muons is reported, using data obtained from the MACRO detector at the Gran Sasso Laboratory. In a sample of 12.2 10^6 single muons, corresponding to a detector livetime of 1.55 y, 243 events are observed having an up-going particle associated with a down-going muon. These events are analysed to determine the range and emission angle distributions of the up-going particle, corrected for detection and reconstruction efficiency. Measurements of the muon neutrino flux by underground detectors are often based on the observation of through-going and stopping muons produced in $\nu_\mu$ interactions in the rock below the detector. Up-going particles produced by an undetected down-going muon are a potential background source in these measurements. The implications of this background for neutrino studies using MACRO are discussed.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures. Accepted by Astrop. Physic

Nuclearite search with the MACRO detector at Gran Sasso

In this paper we present the results of a search for nuclearites in the penetrating cosmic radiation using the scintillator and track-etch subdetectors of the MACRO apparatus. The analyses cover the beta =v/c range at the detector depth (3700 hg/cm^2) 10^-5 < beta < 1; for beta = 2 x 10^-3 the flux limit is 2.7 x 10^-16 cm^-2 s^-1 sr^-1 for an isotropic flux of nuclearites, and twice this value for a flux of downgoing nuclearites.Comment: 16 pages, 4 Encapsulated Postscript figures, uses article.sty. Submitted to The European Physical Journal