Complexity Analysis of Accelerated MCMC Methods for Bayesian Inversion

We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov Chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the Bayesian posterior distribution, given data $\delta$. Particular attention is given to bounds on the overall work required to achieve a prescribed error level $\varepsilon$. Specifically, we first bound the computational complexity of "plain" MCMC, based on combining MCMC sampling with linear complexity multilevel solvers for elliptic PDE. Our (new) work versus accuracy bounds show that the complexity of this approach can be quite prohibitive. Two strategies for reducing the computational complexity are then proposed and analyzed: first, a sparse, parametric and deterministic generalized polynomial chaos (gpc) "surrogate" representation of the forward response map of the PDE over the entire parameter space, and, second, a novel Multi-Level Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MLMCMC) strategy which utilizes sampling from a multilevel discretization of the posterior and of the forward PDE. For both of these strategies we derive asymptotic bounds on work versus accuracy, and hence asymptotic bounds on the computational complexity of the algorithms. In particular we provide sufficient conditions on the regularity of the unknown coefficients of the PDE, and on the approximation methods used, in order for the accelerations of MCMC resulting from these strategies to lead to complexity reductions over "plain" MCMC algorithms for Bayesian inversion of PDEs.

Racial differences in pathways to care preceding first episode mania or psychosis: a historical cohort prodromal study

BackgroundThere is evidence suggesting racial disparities in diagnosis and treatment in bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SZ). The purpose of this study is to compare psychiatric diagnoses and psychotropic use preceding a first episode of mania (FEM) or psychosis (FEP) in racially diverse patients.MethodsUsing a comprehensive medical records linkage system (Rochester Epidemiology Project, REP), we retrospectively identified individuals diagnosed with BD or SZ and a documented first episode of mania or psychosis. Illness trajectory before FEP/FEM were characterized as the time from first visit for a mental health complaint to incident case. Pathways to care and clinical events preceding FEP/FEM were compared based on subsequent incident case diagnosis (BD or SZ) and self-reported race (White vs. non-White).ResultsA total of 205 (FEM = 74; FEP = 131) incident cases were identified in the REP. Duration of psychiatric antecedents was significantly shorter in non-White patients, compared to White patients (2.2 ± 4.3 vs. 7.4 ± 6.6 years; p < 0.001) with an older age at time of first visit for a mental health complaint (15.7 ± 6.3 vs. 11.1 ± 6.0 years; p = 0.005). There were no significant differences by race in FEM pathway to care or age of first seeking mental health. Overall non-White patients had lower rates of psychotropic use.ConclusionThese data are unable to ascertain reasons for shorter duration of psychiatric antecedents and later age of seeking care, and more broadly first age of initial symptom presentation. If symptoms are confirmed to be earlier than first time seeking care in both groups, it would be important to identify barriers that racial minorities face to access timely psychiatric care and optimize early intervention strategies

Redox Modulation at Work: Natural Phytoprotective Polysulfanes From Alliums Based on Redox-Active Sulfur

Purpose of review: This article provides a brief overview of natural phytoprotective products of allium with a special focus on the therapeutic potential of diallyl polysulfanes from garlic, their molecular targets and their fate in the living organisms. A comprehensive overview of antimicrobial and anticancer properties of published literature is presented for the reader to understand the effective concentrations of polysulfanes and their sensitivity towards different human pathogenic microbes, fungi, and cancer cell lines. Recent findings: The article finds polysulfanes potentials as new generation novel antibiotics and chemo preventive agent. The effective dose rates of polysulfanes for antimicrobial properties are in the range of 0.5–40 mg/L and for anticancer 20–100 μM. The molecular targets for these redox modulators are mainly cellular thiols as well as inhibition and/or activation of certain cellular proteins in cancer cell lines. Summary: Antimicrobial and anticancer activities of polysulfanes published in the literature indicate that with further development, they could be promising candidates for cancer prevention due to their selectivity towards abnormal cells

Genetic determinants of risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension: international genome-wide association studies and meta-analysis

Background Rare genetic variants cause pulmonary arterial hypertension, but the contribution of common genetic variation to disease risk and natural history is poorly characterised. We tested for genome-wide association for pulmonary arterial hypertension in large international cohorts and assessed the contribution of associated regions to outcomes. Methods We did two separate genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and a meta-analysis of pulmonary arterial hypertension. These GWAS used data from four international case-control studies across 11744 individuals with European ancestry (including 2085 patients). One GWAS used genotypes from 5895 whole-genome sequences and the other GWAS used genotyping array data from an additional 5849 individuals. Cross-validation of loci reaching genome-wide significance was sought by meta-analysis. Conditional analysis corrected for the most significant variants at each locus was used to resolve signals for multiple associations. We functionally annotated associated variants and tested associations with duration of survival. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint in survival analyses. Findings A locus near SOX17 (rs10103692, odds ratio 1·80 [95% CI 1·55–2·08], p=5·13×10– ¹⁵) and a second locus in HLA-DPA1 and HLA-DPB1 (collectively referred to as HLA-DPA1/DPB1 here; rs2856830, 1·56 [1·42–1·71], p=7·65×10– ²⁰) within the class II MHC region were associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension. The SOX17 locus had two independent signals associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension (rs13266183, 1·36 [1·25–1·48], p=1·69×10– ¹²; and rs10103692). Functional and epigenomic data indicate that the risk variants near SOX17 alter gene regulation via an enhancer active in endothelial cells. Pulmonary arterial hypertension risk variants determined haplotype-specific enhancer activity, and CRISPR-mediated inhibition of the enhancer reduced SOX17 expression. The HLA-DPA1/DPB1 rs2856830 genotype was strongly associated with survival. Median survival from diagnosis in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension with the C/C homozygous genotype was double (13·50 years [95% CI 12·07 to >13·50]) that of those with the T/T genotype (6·97 years [6·02–8·05]), despite similar baseline disease severity. Interpretation This is the first study to report that common genetic variation at loci in an enhancer near SOX17 and in HLA-DPA1/DPB1 is associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Impairment of SOX17 function might be more common in pulmonary arterial hypertension than suggested by rare mutations in SOX17. Further studies are needed to confirm the association between HLA typing or rs2856830 genotyping and survival, and to determine whether HLA typing or rs2856830 genotyping improves risk stratification in clinical practice or trials. Funding UK NIHR, BHF, UK MRC, Dinosaur Trust, NIH/NHLBI, ERS, EMBO, Wellcome Trust, EU, AHA, ACClinPharm, Netherlands CVRI, Dutch Heart Foundation, Dutch Federation of UMC, Netherlands OHRD and RNAS, German DFG, German BMBF, APH Paris, INSERM, Université Paris-Sud, and French ANR

Effect of Garlic Extract on Seed Germination, Seedling Health, and Vigour of Pathogen-Infested Wheat

The effect of garlic extract containing bioactive allicin on the germination and subsequent seedling vigour of pathogeninfested wheat seeds, was tested. The first aim was to characterize the antifungal activities of garlic extract and pure allicin, on the most frequently occurring wheat pathogens of the Helminthosporium genus (sensu lato) in Argentina. The second aim was to characterize the antifungal activities of garlic extract and pure allicin on moulds belonging to the natural endogenous microflora. Garlic extract showed fungicidal activity on the endogenous fungal contamination of the wheat seeds and particularly reduced the degree of disease caused by Bipolaris sorokiniana and Drechslera tritici-repentis. Allicin in garlic juice corrected the poor germination of wheat seeds caused by natural mycoflora of grain. Growth promoting activities of garlic juice on wheat seedling vigour was reported. Interestingly, the inoculum on naturally infected wheat seeds could be reduced with garlic juice as a seed dressing biofungicide, before sowing. In this study, we demonstrated the efficacy and the high control potential of garlic extract against seed-borne wheat fungi. Such results suggest that using garlic extract can minimise the risk of infection as well as minimise the risk of chemical fungicide exposure. On the basis of these results, scale-up to field trials using garlic extract and allicin as the dressing biofungicide before sowing for disinfection of wheat seeds, seems justified as a sustainable alternative to the use of chemical fungicides

LES Analysis of CO Emissions from a High Pressure Siemens Gas Turbine Prototype Combustor at Part Load

This work contributes to the understanding of mechanisms that lead to increased carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in gas turbine combustion systems. Large-eddy simulations (LES) of a full scale high pressure prototype Siemens gas turbine combustor at three staged part load operating conditions are presented, demonstrating the ability to predict carbon monoxide pollutants from a complex technical system by investigating sources of incomplete CO oxidation. Analytically reduced chemistry is applied for the accurate pollutant prediction together with the dynamic thickened flame model. LES results show that carbon monoxide emissions at the probe location are predicted in good agreement with the available test data, indicating two operating points with moderate pollutant levels and one operating point with CO concentrations below 10 ppm. Large mixture inhomogeneities are identified in the combustion chamber for all operating points. The investigation of mixture formation indicates that fuel-rich mixtures mainly emerge from the pilot stage resulting in high equivalence ratio streaks that lead to large CO levels at the combustor outlet. Flame quenching due to flame-wall-interaction are found to be of no relevance for CO in the investigated combustion chamber. Post-processing with Lagrangian tracer particles shows that cold air—from effusion cooling or stages that are not being supplied with fuel—lead to significant flame quenching, as mixtures are shifted to leaner equivalence ratios and the oxidation of CO is inhibited