The impact of longevity and investment risk on a portfolio of life insurance liabilities

In this paper we assess the joint impact of biometric and financial risk on the market valuation of life insurance liabilities. We consider a stylized, contingent claim based model of a life insurance company issuing participating contracts and subject to default risk, as pioneered by Briys and de Varenne (Geneva Pap Risk Insur Theory 19(1):53–72, 1994, J Risk Insur 64(4):673–694, 1997), and build on their model by explicitly introducing biometric risk and its components, namely diversifiable and systematic risk. The contracts considered include pure endowments, deferred whole life annuities and guaranteed annuity options. Our results stress the predominance of systematic over diversifiable risk in determining fair participation rates. We investigate the interaction of contract design, market regimes and mortality assumptions, and show that, particularly for lifelong benefits, the choice of the participation rate must be very conservative if longevity improvements are foreseeable

X-Linked Genes and Risk of Orofacial Clefts: Evidence from Two Population-Based Studies in Scandinavia

Background: Orofacial clefts are common birth defects of complex etiology, with an excess of males among babies with cleft lip and palate, and an excess of females among those with cleft palate only. Although genes on the X chromosome have been implicated in clefting, there has been no association analysis of X-linked markers. Methodology/Principal Findings: We added new functionalities in the HAPLIN statistical software to enable association analysis of X-linked markers and an exploration of various causal scenarios relevant to orofacial clefts. Genotypes for 48 SNPs in 18 candidate genes on the X chromosome were analyzed in two population-based samples from Scandinavia (562 Norwegian and 235 Danish case-parent triads). For haplotype analysis, we used a sliding-window approach and assessed isolated cleft lip with or without cleft palate (iCL/P) separately from isolated cleft palate only (iCPO). We tested three statistical models in HAPLIN, allowing for: i) the same relative risk in males and females, ii) sex-specific relative risks, and iii) X-inactivation in females. We found weak but consistent associations with the oral-facial-digital syndrome 1 (OFD1) gene (formerly known as CXORF5) in the Danish iCL/P samples across all models, but not in the Norwegian iCL/P samples. In sex-specific analyses, the association with OFD1 was in male cases only. No analyses showed associations with iCPO in either the Norwegian or the Danish sample. Conclusions: The association of OFD1 with iCL/P is plausible given the biological relevance of this gene. However, the lack of replication in the Norwegian samples highlights the need to verify these preliminary findings in other large datasets. More generally, the novel analytic methods presented here are widely applicable to investigations of the role of X-linked genes in complex traits

Evidence of gene-environment interaction for two genes on chromosome 4 and environmental tobacco smoke in controlling the risk of nonsyndromic cleft palate

Nonsyndromic cleft palate (CP) is one of the most common human birth defects and both genetic and environmental risk factors contribute to its etiology. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using 550 CP case-parent trios ascertained in an international consortium. Stratified analysis among trios with different ancestries was performed to test for GxE interactions with common maternal exposures using conditional logistic regression models. While no single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) achieved genome-wide significance when considered alone, markers in SLC2A9 and the neighboring WDR1 on chromosome 4p16.1 gave suggestive evidence of gene-environment interaction with environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) among 259 Asian trios when the models included a term for GxE interaction. Multiple SNPs in these two genes were associated with increased risk of nonsyndromic CP if the mother was exposed to ETS during the peri-conceptual period (3 months prior to conception through the first trimester). When maternal ETS was considered, fifteen of 135 SNPs mapping to SLC2A9 and 9 of 59 SNPs in WDR1 gave P values approaching genome-wide significance (10-6<P<10-4) in a test for GxETS interaction. SNPs rs3733585 and rs12508991 in SLC2A9 yielded P = 2.26×10-7 in a test for GxETS interaction. SNPs rs6820756 and rs7699512 in WDR1 also yielded P = 1.79×10-7 and P = 1.98×10-7 in a 1 df test for GxE interaction. Although further replication studies are critical to confirming these findings, these results illustrate how genetic associations for nonsyndromic CP can be missed if potential GxE interaction is not taken into account, and this study suggest SLC2A9 and WDR1 should be considered as candidate genes for CP. © 2014 Wu et al