Current practice and challenges towards handling uncertainty for effective outcomes in maintenance

The combination of viable heuristic attributes with statistical measurements presents significant challenges in industrial maintenance for complex assets under through-life service contracts. Techniques to obtain and process heuristic attributes raise numerous uncertainties which often go undefined and unmitigated. A holistic view of these uncertainties may improve decision-making capabilities and reduce maintenance costs and turnaround time. It is therefore necessary to identify and rank factors that influence uncertainties originating from challenges in the above context. This, along with an identification of who contributes to such challenges and current practice to handle them, sets the focus for this study. The influence of 32 categorised factors on uncertainty is assessed through a questionnaire completed by nine experienced maintenance managers from a leading defence company. The pedigree approach is applied to score validity of respondents’ answers according to their experience and job role to normalise scores. Results are discussed in interviews with respondents along with current practice in and ways to improve uncertainty assessment. Scores are weighted through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to identify the most influential factors on uncertainty in maintenance. The analysis revealed that these include: intellectual property rights (IPR), maintainer performance, quality of information, resistance to change, stakeholder communication and technology integration. These are verified with 40 practitioners from various industrial backgrounds. From the interviews, it is deemed that a holistic view of heuristic and statistical attributes ultimately allows for more accomplished decision-making but requires trade-offs between quality and cost over the asset’s life cycle

Conceptualising the impact of information asymmetry on through-life cost: case study of machine tools sector

Information asymmetry (IA) in terms of contextual variety and importance is one of the most challenging aspects of through-life costing in product-service systems (PSS). IA is an imbalance in the information, data and knowledge shared among the parties involved in a contractual agreement. In manufacturing systems under PSS, interaction and effective communication among several parties who are involved in a contractual agreement, rely on the continuity and accuracy of information and context. In such systems, contextual variety exhibits complexity and uncertainty in through-life costing and subsequently in PSS cost assessment. Although the economic aspect of PSS has been studied previously, the impact of IA on through-life cost and for different PSS solutions has not been detailed. Considering manufacturing value chains, this paper introduces a new concept of PSS-hierarchy to perform through-life costing in the presence of IA for various PSS solutions. Moreover, this paper proposes a generic life-cycle model for different PSS solutions to assess the total cost of ownership (TCO). The proposed model has been developed to support decisions on contract design in manufacturing systems. This study considers the manufacturer, service provider and customer perspectives to develop the TCO model using a machine tool manufacturing case study

Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia

There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation

Global priorities for conservation of reptilian phylogenetic diversity in the face of human impacts

Phylogenetic diversity measures are increasingly used in conservation planning to represent aspects of biodiversity beyond that captured by species richness. Here we develop two new metrics that combine phylogenetic diversity and the extent of human pressure across the spatial distribution of species — one metric valuing regions and another prioritising species. We evaluate these metrics for reptiles, which have been largely neglected in previous studies, and contrast these results with equivalent calculations for all terrestrial vertebrate groups. We find that regions under high human pressure coincide with the most irreplaceable areas of reptilian diversity, and more than expected by chance. The highest priority reptile species score far above the top mammal and bird species, and reptiles include a disproportionate number of species with insufficient extinction risk data. Data Deficient species are, in terms of our species-level metric, comparable to Critically Endangered species and therefore may require urgent conservation attention

The influence of past and present climate on the biogeography of modern mammal diversity

Within most terrestrial groups of animals, including mammals, species richness varies along two axes of environmental variation, representing energy availability and plant productivity. This relationship has led to a search for mechanistic links between climate and diversity. Explanations have traditionally focused on single mechanisms, such as variation in environmental carrying capacity or evolutionary rates. Consensus, though, has proved difficult to achieve and there is growing appreciation that geographical patterns of species richness are a product of many interacting factors including biogeographic history and biological traits. Here, we review some current hypotheses on the causes of gradients in mammal richness and range sizes since the two quantities are intimately linked. We then present novel analyses using recent datasets to explore the structure of the environment–richness relationship for mammals. Specifically, we consider the impact of glaciation on present day mammalian diversity gradients. We conclude that not only are multiple processes important in structuring diversity gradients, but also that different processes predominate in different places

Illawarra Born cross-generational health study: feasibility of a multi-generational birth cohort study

Background: There is a strong interest in the concept of developmental origins of health and disease and their influence on various factors from cradle to grave . Despite the increasing appreciation of this lifelong legacy across the human life course, many gaps remain in the scientific understanding of mechanisms influencing these formative phases. Cross-generational susceptibility to health problems is emerging as a focus of research in the context of birth cohort studies. The primary aim of the Illawarra Born study is to make scientific discoveries associated with improving health and wellbeing across the lifespan, with a particular focus on preventable chronic diseases, especially mental health. This birth cohort study will follow and collect data from three cohorts representing different stages across the lifespan: infants, adults (parents) and older adults (grandparents). The multi-generational, cross-sectional and longitudinal design of this birth cohort study supports a focus on the contributions of genetics, environment and lifestyle on health and wellbeing. The feasibility of conducting a multi-generational longitudinal birth cohort project was conducted through a small pilot study. Methods/design: The purpose of this paper is to report on the feasibility and acceptability of the research protocol for a collaborative cross-generation health study in the community and test recruitment and outcome measures for the main study. This feasibility study included pregnant women who were intending to give birth in the Illawarra-Shoalhaven region in Eastern Australia. The area includes a large, regional referral hospital, with capacity to treat specialist and complex cases. Pregnant women were asked to participate in five data collection waves beginning at 22 weeks gestation and ending with a 6-month post-partum appointment. Recruitment was then extended, via the pregnant women, to also include fathers and maternal grandmothers. Discussion: This feasibility study focused on the perinatal period and collected data across three multi-disciplinary domains including mental health, diet, exposures to toxins and the role of these in maternal and infant outcomes. Forty-one families participated in extensive data collection from 22 weeks gestation to 6-months post-partum. Factors impacting on viability and feasibility including recruitment solutions provide the basis for a large-scale study

Human pregnancy zone protein stabilizes misfolded proteins including preeclampsia- and Alzheimer's-associated amyloid beta peptide.

Protein misfolding underlies the pathology of a large number of human disorders, many of which are age-related. An exception to this is preeclampsia, a leading cause of pregnancy-associated morbidity and mortality in which misfolded proteins accumulate in body fluids and the placenta. We demonstrate that pregnancy zone protein (PZP), which is dramatically elevated in maternal plasma during pregnancy, efficiently inhibits in vitro the aggregation of misfolded proteins, including the amyloid beta peptide (Aβ) that is implicated in preeclampsia as well as with Alzheimer's disease. The mechanism by which this inhibition occurs involves the formation of stable complexes between PZP and monomeric Aβ or small soluble Aβ oligomers formed early in the aggregation pathway. The chaperone activity of PZP is more efficient than that of the closely related protein alpha-2-macroglobulin (α2M), although the chaperone activity of α2M is enhanced by inducing its dissociation into PZP-like dimers. By immunohistochemistry analysis, PZP is found primarily in extravillous trophoblasts in the placenta. In severe preeclampsia, PZP-positive extravillous trophoblasts are adjacent to extracellular plaques containing Aβ, but PZP is not abundant within extracellular plaques. Our data support the conclusion that the up-regulation of PZP during pregnancy represents a major maternal adaptation that helps to maintain extracellular proteostasis during gestation in humans. We propose that overwhelming or disrupting the chaperone function of PZP could underlie the accumulation of misfolded proteins in vivo. Attempts to characterize extracellular proteostasis in pregnancy will potentially have broad-reaching significance for understanding disease-related protein misfolding.Wellcome Trust Programme Grant 094425/Z/10/

Species richness as criterion for global conservation area placement leads to large losses in coverage of biodiversity

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