A tale of two coal regimes: An actor-oriented analysis of destabilisation and maintenance of coal regimes in Germany and Japan

Phasing out coal-fired electricity is an urgent global task, critical to efforts to mitigate climate change and air pollution. Despite the growth and increasing competitiveness of renewable energy, phase-out progress is slow, with coal-fired power even reaching an all-time global high in 2021. A key factor blocking or delaying this energy transition is the active resistance of coal regime actors with vested interests. However, there is still a lack of a systemic understanding of why some actors are more influential in shaping transition processes such as changes in policies or institutions. In this article, we present a comparative case study of the political struggle around the coal policy in Germany and Japan. We use the Endowment-Practice-Institutions (EPI) framework to analyse how actors try to destabilise or maintain the institutional arrangements underpinning the coal regimes in these countries and why some are more influential in shaping the policy outcomes. Our findings show that while actors' strategies are largely determined by the socio-political context they are embedded in, there are also certain patterns and common sequences of practices. These include commissioning a study, disseminating it through various networks and social media channels, mobilising the public through demonstrations, and engaging in advocacy with the aim of increasing the political bargaining power. Our analytical framework, which can be applied to various settings, helps to understand why certain policy outcomes occur amidst efforts to spur or stall energy transitions, and why regimes are destabilised in some case - but not in others

Top-down sustainability transitions in action: How do incumbent actors drive electric mobility diffusion in China, Japan, and California?

In explaining how socio-technical transitions occur, prevailing theories focus on bottom-up processes driven by new entrants, diverse actors and open-ended exploration in small, protected niches. Incumbent firms are frequently portrayed as hampering change, while managerial strategies using traditional public policy instruments remain understudied. Addressing this bias, we examine strategies used by networks of incumbent state and industry actors in China, Japan and California to accelerate the production and diffusion of battery-electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles. We build a comprehensive framework that systematically marries mechanisms of industrial transformation described in developmental-state literature with theories of socio-technical change from transitions scholarship. We then use a vast dataset of secondary documents and interviews to examine the principal strategies employed in each country, identifying variations over two phases of technological diffusion. Findings reveal that the incumbent actor networks in each country have collectively employed multiple but similar strategies. Yet closer inspection of specific policy instruments, such as regulations and performance-based incentives, along with ambitions to phase out vehicles with internal combustion engines, reveals differences across cases. We explain these by considering different motivations for each country’s transition and influencing socio-political conditions. Our study contributes to the enrichment of future transitions research in at least two ways. Theoretically, by integrating literature on transitions and developmental states, we deepen understanding of how incumbent state and market actors can attempt to drive socio-technical change. Empirically, our analysis provides important evidence for understanding the strategies driving top-down transitions outside northern Europe, and the conditions affecting instrument choice

Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world’s CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6, 541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010–2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages

University partnerships for co-designing and co-producing urban sustainability

Universities are playing an increasingly central role in advancing sustainability at the local, regional and national scale through cross-sector collaborations. Accompanying the launch of Future Earth, interest is mounting in the co-design and co-production of knowledge and solutions for advancing global sustainability, particularly in urban areas. Place-based university partnerships appear as particularly significant vehicles for enacting co-design and co-production in the context of urban sustainability. However, the nature and role of these partnerships are not well understood, in part due to the absence of systematic analyses across multiple cases. To fill this gap, the objectives of this paper were to conduct a large-scale international survey focusing on university partnerships for urban sustainability in industrialised Europe, Asia and North America to (1) determine defining features such as focus areas, geographical scales, mechanisms, actors and motivations, and (2) identify commonly encountered drivers, barriers and potential impacts. Results indicate that partnerships most typically target energy, buildings, governance and social systems, unfold at local or city-scales, and involve collaborations with local or regional government. Our analysis shows that potential outcomes of university initiatives to co-design and co-produce urban sustainability are not limited to knowledge and policy. They also encompass the creation of new technological prototypes, businesses and new socio-technical systems, in addition to transformations of the built and natural environment. Findings also suggest that individual partnerships are making strong social, environmental and sustainability impacts, with less evidence of economic contributions. Strategies are required to enhance project management and ensure that projects address contrasting priorities and time horizons in academia and local government. Implications for policy include findings that targeted funding programmes can play a key role in fostering partnerships. Measures are also required to challenge academic norms and incentive structures that, in some cases, hinder university efforts to engage in place-based initiatives to co-design and co-produce urban sustainability

サステイナビリティに向けた都市の転換のための大学の共創的パートナーシップ : 技術移転を通じた第三のミッションを超えて

学位の種別:課程博士University of Tokyo(東京大学

Understanding the Multi-Faceted Drivers of Increasing Coal Consumption in Indonesia

To meet the Paris Agreement’s climate mitigation objectives, there is an urgent global need to reduce coal combustion. Yet coal usage, particularly in the power sector, is rising in many developing countries. Indonesia is a notable example. While government policy is widely considered as the principle driver of Indonesia’s increasing coal consumption, studies have largely overlooked the influence of socioeconomic forces. To understand these effects, we utilize a decomposition analysis to capture the individual effect of five drivers of coal consumption in Indonesia over 1965 to 2017: (1) the energy mix, (2) energy intensity of GDP, (3) population, (4) urbanization, and (5) urban incomes. Results show the energy mix has exerted the largest effect on coal consumption. In addition, by accounting for other socio-economic influences, we found that other less appreciated factors have contributed to rising coal consumption. In order of contribution these were the urban economic effect, the growing relative share of urban population, and the population increase itself in absolute terms. We thus demonstrate that the drivers of growing coal consumption are multi-faced, complex and intertwined. Our findings show that developing nations such as Indonesia share a need to decouple urban population growth and increasing per capita wealth from fossil fuel (and coal) emissions

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.</p

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.</p

Transformative capacity and local action for urban sustainability.

There is a consensus about the strategic importance of cities and urban areas for achieving a global transformation towards sustainability. While there is mounting interest in the types of qualities that increase the capacity of urban systems to attain deep transformations, empirical evidence about the extent to which existing institutional and material systems exhibit transformative capacity is lacking. This paper thereby seeks to determine the extent to which sustainability initiatives led by local governments and their partners reflect the various components that the literature claims can influence the emergence of transformative capacity as a systemic property of urban settings. Using an evaluative framework consisting of ten components of transformative capacity and associated indicators, the specific objective is to identify patterns in these initiatives regarding the presence of individual components of transformative capacity and their interrelations with other components. The analysis of 400 sustainability initiatives reveals thin evidence of transformative capacity. When detected, evidence of transformative capacity tended to emerge in relation to wider processes of institutional- and social-learning and initiatives that linked outcomes to a city-wide vision of planning and development. However, instances of such initiatives were rare. This widespread lack of evidence for transformative capacity raises concerns that this set of attributes normalised in the literature is in fact rarely found in sustainability action on the ground