Genetic Diversity and Range Dynamics of Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Research Highlights: The effects of climate change on habitat loss, range shift and/or genetic impoverishment of mid-elevation plants has received less attention compared to alpine species. Moreover, genetic diversity patterns of mountain forest herbaceous species have scarcely been explored in the Balkans. In this context, our study is the first that aims to examine Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus, a medicinal plant endemic to the southern part of the Balkan Peninsula. Background and Objectives: We compare its genetic diversity and structure along the continuous mountain range of western Greece with the topographically less structured mountains of eastern Greece, and predict its present and future habitat suitability, using several environmental variables. Materials and Methods: Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) markers were used to genotype 80 individuals from 8 populations, covering almost the species’ entire distribution range in Greece. We investigated the factors shaping its genetic composition and driving its current and future distribution. Results: High gene diversity (0.2239–0.3319), moderate population differentiation (0.0317–0.3316) and increased gene flow (Nm = 1.3098) was detected. According to any GCM/RCP/climate database combination, Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus is projected to lose a significant portion of its current distribution by 2070 and follow a trend towards genetic homogenization. Conclusions: Populations exhibit in terms of genetic structure a west–east genetic split, which becomes more evident southwards. This is mainly due to geographic/topographic factors and their interplay with Quaternary climatic oscillations, and to environmental constraints, which may have a negative impact on the species’ future distribution and genetic composition. Pindos mountain range seems to buffer climate change effects and will probably continue to host several populations. On the other hand, peripheral populations have lower genetic diversity compared to central populations, but still hold significant evolutionary potential due to the private alleles they maintain

Conservation of Micromeria browiczii (Lamiaceae), Endemic to Zakynthos Island (Ionian Islands, Greece)

The massive decline in biodiversity due to anthropogenic threats has led to the emergence of conservation as one of the central goals in modern biology. Conservation strategies are urgently needed for addressing the ongoing loss of plant diversity. The Mediterranean basin, and especially the Mediterranean islands, host numerous rare and threatened plants in need of urgent conservation actions. In this study, we assess the current conservation status of Micromeria browiczii, a local endemic to Zakynthos Island (Ionian Islands, Greece), and estimate its future risk of extinction by compiling and assessing scientific information on geographical distribution, population dynamics and reproductive biology. The population size and the geographical distribution of the species were monitored for five years. The current population of the species consists of 15 subpopulations. Considerable annual fluctuation of population size was detected. The species is assessed as Endangered according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature threat categories. According to population viability analysis results, its extinction risk was estimated to be 5.6% over the next 50 years, when six of the fifteen subpopulations (40%) might become extinct. The investigation of certain aspects of the species’ biology yielded important data necessary to identify critical aspects for its survival and to propose conservation measures

Conservation biology of threatened Mediterranean chasmophytes: The case of Asperula naufraga endemic to Zakynthos island (Ionian islands, Greece).

Asperula naufraga is a rare and threatened obligate chasmophyte, endemic to Zakynthos island (Ionian islands, Greece). In this study, we provide a combined approach (including monitoring of demographic and reproductive parameters and study of genetic diversity) to assess the current conservation status of the species and to estimate its future extinction risk. The five subpopulations of A. naufraga were monitored for five years (2014-2018). Population size markedly fluctuated between 68-130 mature individuals during the monitoring period. The extent of occurrence (EOO) was estimated at 28.7 km2 and the area of occupancy (AOO) was 8 km2. Stage-structure recordings were similar for all subpopulations, characterized by high proportions of adult and senescent individuals, following a common pattern, which has been observed in other cliff-dwelling plants. Preliminary genetic analysis with SSRs markers revealed low heterozygosity within subpopulations and significant departure from H-W equilibrium, which combined with small population size suggest increased threat of genetic diversity loss. Our results indicate that the species should be placed in the Critically Endangered (CR) IUCN threat category, while according to Population Viability Analysis results its extinction risk increases to 47.8% in the next 50 years. The small population size combined with large fluctuations in its size, low recruitment and low genetic diversity, indicate the need of undertaking effective in situ and ex situ conservation measures

National Park and UNESCO Global Geopark of Chelmos-Vouraikos (Greece): Floristic Diversity, Ecosystem Services and Management Implications

This study highlights the importance of including detailed (local-scale) biodiversity and ecosystem services data for land-use management and promotion of protected areas using the National Park and UNESCO Global Geopark of Chelmos-Vouraikos (Greece) as a case study. Along with the conducted field surveys and literature review for the National Park’s flora documentation, ecosystem type mapping and assessment of ecosystem services have been performed, following National and European Union (EU) guidelines for the Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) implementation across EU Member States. Main results include floristic diversity indicators, ecosystem type mapping and assessment, and ecosystem services identification and assessment of their actual and potential supply. By this, a scientifically informed baseline dataset was developed to support management and policy needs towards a holistic National Park management and a sustainable spatial planning for protected areas. Additionally, local scale ecosystem type and ecosystem services data have been produced as input for the MAES implementation in Greece and the EU

National Park and UNESCO Global Geopark of Chelmos-Vouraikos (Greece): Floristic Diversity, Ecosystem Services and Management Implications

This study highlights the importance of including detailed (local-scale) biodiversity and ecosystem services data for land-use management and promotion of protected areas using the National Park and UNESCO Global Geopark of Chelmos-Vouraikos (Greece) as a case study. Along with the conducted field surveys and literature review for the National Park’s flora documentation, ecosystem type mapping and assessment of ecosystem services have been performed, following National and European Union (EU) guidelines for the Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) implementation across EU Member States. Main results include floristic diversity indicators, ecosystem type mapping and assessment, and ecosystem services identification and assessment of their actual and potential supply. By this, a scientifically informed baseline dataset was developed to support management and policy needs towards a holistic National Park management and a sustainable spatial planning for protected areas. Additionally, local scale ecosystem type and ecosystem services data have been produced as input for the MAES implementation in Greece and the EU

Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece)

Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park is a floristic diversity and endemism hotspot in Greece and one of the main areas where Greek endemic taxa, preliminary assessed as critically endangered and threatened under the IUCN Criteria A and B, are mainly concentrated. The climate and land-cover change impacts on rare and endemic species distributions is more prominent in regional biodiversity hotspots. The main aims of the current study were: (a) to investigate how climate and land-cover change may alter the distribution of four single mountain endemics and three very rare Peloponnesian endemic taxa of the National Park via a species distribution modelling approach, and (b) to estimate the current and future extinction risk of the aforementioned taxa based on the IUCN Criteria A and B, in order to investigate the need for designing an effective plant micro-reserve network and to support decision making on spatial planning efforts and conservation research for a sustainable, integrated management. Most of the taxa analyzed are expected to continue to be considered as critically endangered based on both Criteria A and B under all land-cover/land-use scenarios, GCM/RCP and time-period combinations, while two, namely Alchemilla aroanica and Silene conglomeratica, are projected to become extinct in most future climate change scenarios. When land-cover/land-use data were included in the analyses, these negative effects were less pronounced. However, Silene conglomeratica, the rarest mountain endemic found in the study area, is still expected to face substantial range decline. Our results highlight the urgent need for the establishment of micro-reserves for these taxa

Assessing the Vulnerability of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot

Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (MAPs) play a critical role in providing ecosystem services through their provision of herbal remedies, food and natural skin care products, their integration into local economies, and maintaining pollinators’ diversity and populations and ecosystem functioning. Mountainous regions, such as Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (CVNP), represent unique reservoirs of endemic MAP diversity that require conservation prioritisation. This study aims to provide insights into the sustainable management of MAPs, contributing to efforts to protect Mediterranean biodiversity amid the dual challenges of climate and land-use change, using a suite of macroecological modelling techniques. Following a Species Distribution Modelling framework, we investigated the vulnerability of endemic and non-endemic MAPs to climate and land-use changes. We examined the potential shifts in MAP diversity, distribution, and conservation hotspots within the CVNP. Our results revealed species-specific responses, with endemic taxa facing severe range contractions and non-endemic taxa initially expanding but eventually declining, particularly under land-use change scenarios. Local biodiversity hotspots are projected to shift altitudinally, with considerable area losses in the coming decades and elevated species turnover predicted throughout the CVNP, leading to biotic homogenization. Climate and land-use changes jointly threaten MAP diversity, calling for adaptive conservation strategies, thus highlighting the importance of proactive measures, such as awareness raising, establishing plant micro-reserves, assisted translocation, and promoting sustainable harvesting to protect these species within the CVNP. Our study offers vital insights for managing biodiversity hotspots amid global change pressures, stressing the need to integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors