Asset prices and portfolio choice with learning from experience

We study asset prices and portfolio choice with overlapping generations, where the young disregard history to learn from own experience. Disregarding history implies less precise estimates of output growth, which in equilibrium leads the young to increase their investment in risky assets after positive returns, that is, they act as trend chasers. In equilibrium, the risk premium decreases after a positive shock and, therefore, trend chasing young agents lose wealth relative to old agents who behave as contrarians. Consistent with findings from survey data, the average belief about the risk premium in the economy relates negatively to future excess returns and is smoother than the true risk premium

The challenge of studying perovskite solar cells stability with machine learning

Perovskite solar cells are the most dynamic emerging photovoltaic technology and attracts the attention of thousands of researchers worldwide. Recently, many of them are targeting device stability issues the key challenge for this technology which has resulted in the accumulation of a significant amount of data. The best example is the Perovskite Database Project, which also includes stability related metrics. From this database, we use data on 1,800 perovskite solar cells where device stability is reported and use Random Forest to identify and study the most important factors for cell stability. By applying the concept of learning curves, we find that the potential for improving the models performance by adding more data of the same quality is limited. However, a significant improvement can be made by increasing data quality by reporting more complete information on the performed experiments. Furthermore, we study an in house database with data on more than 1,000 solar cells, where the entire aging curve for each cell is available as opposed to stability metrics based on a single number. We show that the interpretation of aging experiments can strongly depend on the chosen stability metric, unnaturally favoring some cells over others. Therefore, choosing universal stability metrics is a critical question for future databases targeting this promising technolog

Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling

<div><p>The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.</p></div

The T.O.S.C.A. Project: Research, Education and Care

Despite recent and exponential improvements in diagnostic- therapeutic pathways, an existing “GAP” has been revealed between the “real world care” and the “optimal care” of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). We present the T.O.S.CA. Project (Trattamento Ormonale dello Scompenso CArdiaco), an Italian multicenter initiative involving different health care professionals and services aiming to explore the CHF “metabolic pathophysiological model” and to improve the quality of care of HF patients through research and continuing medical education

Red Sea palaeoclimate: stable isotope and element-ratio analysis of marine mollusc shells

The southern Red Sea coast is the location of more than 4,200 archaeological shell midden sites. These shell middens preserve archaeological and climatic archives of unprecedented resolution and scale. By using shells from these contexts, it is possible to link past environmental information with episodes of human occupation and resource processing. This chapter summarises current knowledge about the marine gastropod Conomurex fasciatus (Born 1778) and discusses its use in environmental and climatic reconstruction using stable isotope and elemental ratio analysis. It offers a review of the most recent studies of shell midden sites on the Farasan Islands, their regional importance during the mid-Holocene, theories about seasonal use of the coastal landscape, and preliminary results from new methods to acquire large climatic datasets from C. fasciatus shells

Distribution of bog and heath in a Newfoundland blanket bog complex: topographic limits on the hydrological processes governing blanket bog development

This research quantified the role of topography and hydrological processes within and, hence, the development of, blanket bogs. Topographic characteristics were derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) developed for the surface and underlying substrate at three blanket bog sites on the southeastern lobe of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. A multinomial logit (MNL) model of the probability of bog occurrence was constructed in terms of relevant topographic characteristics. The resulting model was then used to investigate the probabilistic boundary conditions of bog occurrence within the landscape. Under average curvatures for the sites studied, substrate slopes up to 0.065 favoured blanket bog development. However, steeper slopes could, theoretically, be occupied by blanked bog where water is concentrated by convergent curvatures or large contributing areas. Near community boundaries, bog and heath communities both occupied similar topographic conditions. Since these boundary locations are capable of supporting the hydrological conditions necessary for bog development, the heath is likely to be encroached upon by bog

Distribution of bog and heath in a Newfoundland blanket bog complex: topographic limits on the hydrological processes governing blanket bog development

International audienceThis research quantified the role of topography and hydrological processes within and, hence, the development of, blanket bogs. Topographic characteristics were derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) developed for the surface and underlying substrate at three blanket bog sites on the southeastern lobe of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. A multinomial logit (MNL) model of the probability of bog occurrence was constructed in terms of relevant topographic characteristics. The resulting model was then used to investigate the probabilistic boundary conditions of bog occurrence within the landscape. Under average curvatures for the sites studied, substrate slopes up to 0.065 favoured blanket bog development. However, steeper slopes could, theoretically, be occupied by blanked bog where water is concentrated by convergent curvatures or large contributing areas. Near community boundaries, bog and heath communities both occupied similar topographic conditions. Since these boundary locations are capable of supporting the hydrological conditions necessary for bog development, the heath is likely to be encroached upon by bog

Calibration of hydroclimate proxies in freshwater bivalve shells from Central and West Africa

Freshwater bivalve shell oxygen and carbon stable isotope ratios (δ18O, δ13C) may act as recorders of hydroclimate (e.g., precipitation-evaporation balance, discharge) and aquatic biogeochemistry. We investigate the potential of these hydroclimate proxies measured along the growth axis of shells collected from the Oubangui River (Bangui, Central African Republic) and the Niger River (Niamey, Niger). Biweekly water samples and in situ measurements collected over several years, along with daily discharge data from both sites allowed a direct comparison with proxies recorded in the shells. Data from a total of 14 unionid shells, including three species (Chambardia wissmanni, Aspatharia dahomeyensis, and Aspatharia chaiziana), confirmed that shells precipitate carbonate in oxygen isotope equilibrium with ambient water. Because water temperature variations were small, shell δ18O values (δ18Oshell) also accurately record the seasonality and the range observed in water δ18O (δ18Ow) values when calculated using an average temperature. Calculated δ18Owvalues were in good agreement over the entire record of measured δ18Owvalues, thus δ18Oshellrecords can be reliably used to reconstruct past δ18Owvalues. Discharge and δ18Owvalues from both rivers fit a logarithmic relationship, which was used to attempt reconstruction of past hydrological conditions, after calculating δ18Owvalues from δ18Oshellvalues. A comparison with measured discharge data suggests that for the two rivers considered, δ18Oshelldata are good proxies for recording discharge conditions during low(er) discharge levels, but that high discharge values cannot be accurately reconstructed due to the large scatter in the discharge-δ18Owrelationship. Moreover, periods of bivalve shell growth cessation due to high turbidity or air exposure should be taken into account. While δ13C values of dissolved inorganic carbon in both rivers showed clear seasonality and correlated well with discharge, most of the shells analyzed did not record these variations adequately, likely due to the complication of vital effects including the variable contribution of metabolic CO2. Thus, tropical African unionid δ18Oshellvalues can be used to reconstruct δ18Owvalues with high confidence to provide insight on past hydroclimate such as precipitation-evaporation balance and periods of low discharge. © 2017 Elsevier LtdERC Starting Grant 240002, AFRIVAL; research project G.0D87.14N; NSF-MRI #1229258; National Geographic Society Research and Exploration Grant (#8885--11

Remodeling of the left ventricle in primary aldosteronism due to Conn's adenoma.

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