Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector's Output Forecasts

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time period October 1989 to December 1999. The questions addressed are the following: How accurate are private sector forecasts? How does their accuracy compare with that of the IMF's World Economic Outlook? How well do forecasters predict rare events such as recessions or crises? Is discord among forecasters associated with lower forecast accuracy? Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes

Many studies have attempted to uncover empirical regularities in how countries choose their exchange rate regimes. We survey previous studies showing that, taken as a whole, the literature is inconclusive. Drawing on a large dataset with many potential explanatory variables and a variety of exchange rate regime classifications, we test old and new theories and confirm that no robust empirical regularities emerge.Exchange rate regimes;exchange rate, exchange rate regime, trade openness, terms of trade, trading partner, exchange rates, openness to capital flows, transition countries, real exchange rate, exchange arrangements, exchange restrictions, exchange rate regime classification, currency unions, currency boards, exchange rate regime classifications, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate system, exchange rate pegs, fixed exchange rates, real exchange rate volatility, foreign exchange, fixed exchange rate, political economy, current exchange rate regime, exchange rate flexibility, exchange rate policies, currency areas, export growth, exchange rate systems, current exchange rate, optimum currency areas, classification of exchange rate, floating exchange rate, foreign trade, fixed exchange rate regime, multiple exchange rates, exchange rate classifications, determinant of exchange rate, de facto exchange rate regime, exchange reserves, trade partner, exchange rate crises, transition economy, fixed monetary union, open economies, exchange rate variability, partner countries, foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, measures of volatility, exchange rate classification, floating exchange rates, monetary integration, currency convertibility, transition economies, exchange rate arrangements, de facto exchange rate regimes

Developing an objectives hierarchy for multicriteria decisions on land use options, with a case study of biodiversity conservation and forestry production from Papua, Indonesia

A framework was developed for the construction of an objectives hierarchy for multicriteria decisions in land use planning. The process began through identification of fundamental objectives; these were iteratively decomposed into a hierarchy of subobjectives until a level was reached at which subobjectives had measurable attributes. Values were derived for attributes through a variety of methods and weights assigned to objectives through preference elicitation. The framework assumed that the objectives could be incorporated into a linear value function; this required attributes to satisfy preference and difference independence conditions. Strategies were developed to address typical features that distinguish land use decisions from many other multicriteria decisions. The methodology was illustrated with a case study of land use planning in a forestry concession in the Merauke region of Papua Province, Indonesia. The problem involved severe hard constraints; the analysis showed how these can be accommodated within the framework. Results integrated interests and preferences of a diverse set of stakeholders (resident peoples, developers, and conservation professionals) and were intended for implementation. This methodology is extendible to other land use problems