Prediction of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation Mortality 100 Days After Transplantation Using a Machine Learning Algorithm: A European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party Retrospective Data Mining Study

PURPOSE: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) is potentially curative for acute leukemia (AL), but carries considerable risk. Machine learning algorithms, which are part of the data mining (DM) approach, may serve for transplantation-related mortality risk prediction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This work is a retrospective DM study on a cohort of 28,236 adult HSCT recipients from the AL registry of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. The primary objective was prediction of overall mortality (OM) at 100 days after HSCT. Secondary objectives were estimation of nonrelapse mortality, leukemia-free survival, and overall survival at 2 years. Donor, recipient, and procedural characteristics were analyzed. The alternating decision tree machine learning algorithm was applied for model development on 70% of the data set and validated on the remaining data. RESULTS: OM prevalence at day 100 was 13.9% (n=3,936). Of the 20 variables considered, 10 were selected by the model for OM prediction, and several interactions were discovered. By using a logistic transformation function, the crude score was transformed into individual probabilities for 100-day OM (range, 3% to 68%). The model's discrimination for the primary objective performed better than the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation score (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.701 v 0.646; P<.001). Calibration was excellent. Scores assigned were also predictive of secondary objectives. CONCLUSION: The alternating decision tree model provides a robust tool for risk evaluation of patients with AL before HSCT, and is available online (http://bioinfo.lnx.biu.ac.il/∼bondi/web1.html). It is presented as a continuous probabilistic score for the prediction of day 100 OM, extending prediction to 2 years. The DM method has proved useful for clinical prediction in HSCT

Peripheral blood stem cell graft compared to bone marrow after reduced intensity conditioning regimens for acute leukemia: a report from the ALWP of the EBMT

Increasing numbers of patients are receiving reduced intensity conditioning regimen allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. We hypothesized that the use of bone marrow graft might decrease the risk of graft-versus-host disease compared to peripheral blood after reduced intensity conditioning regimens without compromising graft-versus-leukemia effects. Patients who underwent reduced intensity conditioning regimen allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation from 2000 to 2012 for acute leukemia, and who were reported to the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation were included in the study. Eight hundred and thirty-seven patients receiving bone marrow grafts were compared with 9011 peripheral blood transplant recipients after reduced intensity conditioning regimen. Median follow up of surviving patients was 27 months. Cumulative incidence of engraftment (neutrophil ≥0.5×10(9)/L at day 60) was lower in bone marrow recipients: 88% versus 95% (P<0.0001). Grade II to IV acute graft-versus-host disease was lower in bone marrow recipients: 19% versus 24% for peripheral blood (P=0.005). In multivariate analysis, after adjusting for differences between both groups, overall survival [Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.90; P=0.05] and leukemia-free survival (HR 0.88; P=0.01) were higher in patients transplanted with peripheral blood compared to bone marrow grafts. Furthermore, peripheral blood graft was also associated with decreased risk of relapse (HR 0.78; P=0.0001). There was no significant difference in non-relapse mortality between recipients of bone marrow and peripheral blood grafts, and chronic graft-versus-host disease was significantly higher after peripheral blood grafts (HR 1.38; P<0.0001). Despite the limitation of a retrospective registry-based study, we found that peripheral blood grafts after reduced intensity conditioning regimens had better overall and leukemia-free survival than bone marrow grafts. However, there is an increase in chronic graft-versus-host disease after peripheral blood grafts. Long-term follow up is needed to clarify whether chronic graft-versus-host disease might increase the risk of late morbidity and mortality

Individualized prediction of leukemia-free survival after autologous stem cell transplantation in acute myeloid leukemia

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Haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation for adult acute myeloid leukemia: a position statement from the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation

peer reviewedAllogeneic blood or marrow hematopoietic cell transplantation continues to be the most potent anti-leukemic treatment for adult patients with standard, high-risk, or chemo-refractory acute myeloid leukemia. Until recently, this procedure was generally limited to those recipients who had an available matched-sibling donor or matched-unrelated donor. Technical advances in graft cell processing and manipulation, control of bidirectional T cell alloreactivity, graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis, and other supportive measures in haploidentical transplantation now enable nearly all patients with acute myeloid leukemia to benefit from the graft-versus-leukemia effect with substantial reduction in procedure-related mortality. Over recent years, haploidentical donors have been increasingly adopted as a valid donor source in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia in the absence of an HLA-matched donor. Among centers of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, the use of haploidentical related donor transplantation has increased by 250% since 2010, and 291% since 2005. On behalf of the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, we summarize recent utilization trends in haploidentical transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia and describe the transformative changes in haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation techniques over the past decade, which have led to the current widespread use of this procedure. Furthermore, we review the efficacy of haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia from available studies, including preliminary comparative studies, and bring attention to remaining unanswered questions and directions for future research. We conclude this report with our recommendations for the role of haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation in acute myeloid leukemia

Marrow versus peripheral blood for geno-identical allogeneic stem cell transplantation in acute myelocytic leukemia: influence of dose and stem cell source shows better outcome with rich marrow

Several studies have compared bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood (PB) as stem cell sources in patients receiving allografts, but the cell doses infused have not been considered, especially for BM. Using the ALWP/EBMT registry, we retrospectively studied 881 adult patients with acute myelocytic leukemia (AML), who received a non-T-depleted allogeneic BM (n = 515) or mobilized PB (n = 366) standard transplant, in first remission (CR1), from an HLA-identical sibling, over a 5-year period from January 1994. The BM cell dose ranged from 0.17 to 29 x 10(8)/kg with a median of 2.7 x 10(8)/kg. The PB cell dose ranged from 0.02 to 77 x 10(8)/kg with a median of 9.3 x 10(8)/kg. The median dose for patients receiving BM (2.7 x 10(8)/kg) gave the greatest discrimination. In multivariate analyses, high-dose BM compared to PB was associated with lower transplant-related mortality (RR = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39-0.98; P =.04), better leukemia-free survival (RR = 0.65; 95% CI, 0.46-0.91; P =.013), and better overall survival (RR = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.44-0.92; P =.016). The present study in patients with AML receiving allografts in first remission indicates a better outcome with BM as compared to PB, when the dose of BM infused is rich

Deferasirox and vitamin D improves overall survival in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia after demethylating agents failure.

The prognosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in elderly (≥65 years) patients is poor and treatment remains non-consensual especially for those who are not eligible for intensive therapies. Our group has shown that in vitro the iron chelator deferasirox (DFX) synergizes with vitamin D (VD) to promote monocyte differentiation in primary AML cells. Herein, we present results from a retrospective case-control study in which the association of DFX (1-2 g/d) and 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (100,000 IU/week) (DFX/VD) was proposed to patients following demethylating agents failure. Median survival of patients treated with DFX/VD combination (n = 17) was significantly increased in comparison with matched patients receiving best supportive care (BSC) alone (n = 13) (10.4 versus 4 months respectively). In addition, the only factor associated to an increased overall survival in DFX/VD-treated patients was serum VD levels. We conclude that DFX/VD treatment correlated with increased overall survival of AML patients in this retrospective cohort of elderly patients