Simulated case management of home telemonitoring to assess the impact of different alert algorithms on work-load and clinical decisions

© 2017 The Author(s). Background: Home telemonitoring (HTM) of chronic heart failure (HF) promises to improve care by timely indications when a patient's condition is worsening. Simple rules of sudden weight change have been demonstrated to generate many alerts with poor sensitivity. Trend alert algorithms and bio-impedance (a more sensitive marker of fluid change), should produce fewer false alerts and reduce workload. However, comparisons between such approaches on the decisions made and the time spent reviewing alerts has not been studied. Methods: Using HTM data from an observational trial of 91 HF patients, a simulated telemonitoring station was created and used to present virtual caseloads to clinicians experienced with HF HTM systems. Clinicians were randomised to either a simple (i.e. an increase of 2 kg in the past 3 days) or advanced alert method (either a moving average weight algorithm or bio-impedance cumulative sum algorithm). Results: In total 16 clinicians reviewed the caseloads, 8 randomised to a simple alert method and 8 to the advanced alert methods. Total time to review the caseloads was lower in the advanced arms than the simple arm (80 ± 42 vs. 149 ± 82 min) but agreements on actions between clinicians were low (Fleiss kappa 0.33 and 0.31) and despite having high sensitivity many alerts in the bio-impedance arm were not considered to need further action. Conclusion: Advanced alerting algorithms with higher specificity are likely to reduce the time spent by clinicians and increase the percentage of time spent on changes rated as most meaningful. Work is needed to present bio-impedance alerts in a manner which is intuitive for clinicians

Model-based development of a fuzzy logic advisor for artificially ventilated patients.

This thesis describes the model-based development and validation of an advisor for the maintenance of artificially ventilated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The advisor employs fuzzy logic to represent an anaesthetist's decision making process when adjusting ventilator settings to safely maintain a patient's blood-gases and airway pressures within desired limits. Fuzzy logic was chosen for its ability to process both quantitative and qualitative data. The advisor estimates the changes in inspired O2 fraction (FI02), peak inspiratory pressure (PEEP), respiratory rate (RR), tidal volume (VT) and inspiratory time (TIN), based upon observations of the patient state and the current ventilator settings. The advisor rules only considered the ventilation of patients on volume control (VC) and pressure regulated volume control (PRVC) modes. The fuzzy rules were handcrafted using known physiological relationships and from tacit knowledge elicited during dialogue with anaesthetists. The resulting rules were validated using a computer-based model of human respiration during artificial ventilation. This model was able to simulate a wide range of patho-physiology, and using data collected from ICU it was shown that it could be matched to real clinical data to predict the patient's response to ventilator changes. Using the model, five simulated patient scenarios were constructed via discussion with an anaesthetist. These were used to test the closed-loop performance of the prototype advisor and successfully highlighted divergent behaviour in the rules. By comparing the closed-loop responses against those produced by an anaesthetist (using the patient-model), rapid rule refinement was possible. The modified advisor demonstrated better decision matching than the prototype rules, when compared against the decisions made by the anaesthetist. The modified advisor was also tested using data collected from ICU. Direct comparisons were made between the decisions given by an anaesthetist and those produced by the advisor. Good decision matching was observed in patients with well behaved physiology but soon ran into difficulties if a patients state was changing rapidly or if the patient observations contained large measurement errors

Development of a composite model derived from cardiopulmonary exercise tests to predict mortality risk in patients with mild-to-moderate heart failure

Objective: Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is used to predict outcome in patients with mild-to-moderate heart failure (HF). Single CPET-derived variables are often used, but we wanted to see if a composite score achieved better predictive power. Methods: Retrospective analysis of patient records at the Department of Cardiology, Castle Hill Hospital, Kingston-upon-Hull. 387 patients [median (25th-75th percentile)] [age 65 (56-72) years; 79% males; LVEF 34 (31-37) %] were included. Patients underwent a symptomlimited, maximal CPET on a treadmill. During a median follow up of 8.6 ± 2.1 years in survivors, 107 patients died. Survival models were built and validated using a hybrid approach between the bootstrap and Cox regression. Nine CPET-derived variables were included. Z-score defined each variable's predictive strength. Model coefficients were converted to a risk score. Results: Four CPET-related variables were independent predictors of all-cause mortality in the survival model: the presence of exertional oscillatory ventilation (EOV), increasing slope of the relation between ventilation and carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2 slope), decreasing oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), and an increase in the lowest ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide (VEqCO2 nadir). Individual predictors of mortality ranged from 0.60 to 0.71 using Harrell’s C-statistic, but the optimal combination of EOV + VE/VCO2 slope + OUES + VEqCO2 nadir reached 0.75. The Hull CPET risk score had a significantly higher area under the curve (0.78) when compared to the Heart Failure Survival Score (AUC=0.70;

Early indication of decompensated heart failure in patients on home-telemonitoring: a comparison of prediction algorithms based on daily weight and noninvasive transthoracic bio-impedance

Background: Heart Failure (HF) is a common reason for hospitalization. Admissions might be prevented by early detection of and intervention for decompensation. Conventionally, changes in weight, a possible measure of fluid accumulation, have been used to detect deterioration. Transthoracic impedance may be a more sensitive and accurate measure of fluid accumulation. Objective: In this study, we review previously proposed predictive algorithms using body weight and noninvasive transthoracic bio-impedance (NITTI) to predict HF decompensations. Methods: We monitored 91 patients with chronic HF for an average of 10 months using a weight scale and a wearable bio-impedance vest. Three algorithms were tested using either simple rule-of-thumb differences (RoT), moving averages (MACD), or cumulative sums (CUSUM). Results: Algorithms using NITTI in the 2 weeks preceding decompensation predicted events (P<.001); however, using weight alone did not. Cross-validation showed that NITTI improved sensitivity of all algorithms tested and that trend algorithms provided the best performance for either measurement (Weight-MACD: 33%, NITTI-CUSUM: 60%) in contrast to the simpler rules-of-thumb (Weight-RoT: 20%, NITTI-RoT: 33%) as proposed in HF guidelines. Conclusions: NITTI measurements decrease before decompensations, and combined with trend algorithms, improve the detection of HF decompensation over current guideline rules; however, many alerts are not associated with clinically overt decompensation

Screw Compressors

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Influence of case definition on incidence and outcome of acute coronary syndromes

© 2016, BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved. Objective: Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are common, but their incidence and outcome might depend greatly on how data are collected. We compared case ascertainment rates for ACS and myocardial infarction (MI) in a single institution using several different strategies. Methods: The Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals serve a population of ∼560 000. Patients admitted with ACS to cardiology or general medical wards were identified prospectively by trained nurses during 2005. Patients with a death or discharge code of MI were also identified by the hospital information department and, independently, from Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) records. The hospital laboratory identified all patients with an elevated serum troponin-T (TnT) by contemporary criteria ( > 0.03 μg/L in 2005). Results: The prospective survey identified 1731 admissions (1439 patients) with ACS, including 764 admissions (704 patients) with MIs. The hospital information department reported only 552 admissions (544 patients) with MI and only 206 admissions (203 patients) were reported to the MINAP. Using all 3 strategies, 934 admissions (873 patients) for MI were identified, for which TnT was > 1 μg/L in 443, 0.04-1.0 μg/L in 435, =0.03 μg/L in 19 and not recorded in 37. A further 823 patients had TnT > 0.03 μg/L, but did not have ACS ascertained by any survey method. Of the 873 patients with MI, 146 (16.7%) died during admission and 218 (25.0%) by 1 year, but ranging from 9% for patients enrolled in the MINAP to 27% for those identified by the hospital information department. Conclusions: MINAP and hospital statistics grossly underestimated the incidence of MI managed by our hospital. The 1-year mortality was highly dependent on the method of ascertainment

Comparative effectiveness of enalapril, lisinopril, and ramipril in the treatment of patients with chronic heart failure: a propensity score-matched cohort study

Background: Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) are recommended as first-line therapy in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The comparative effectiveness of different ACEIs is not known. Methods and results: 4,723 out-patients with stable HFrEF prescribed either enalapril, lisinopril, or ramipril were identified from three registries in Norway, England, and Germany. In three separate matching procedures, patients were individually matched with respect to both dose equivalents and their respective propensity scores for ACEI treatment. During a follow-up of 21,939 patient-years, 360 (49.5%), 337 (52.4%), and 1,119 (33.4%) patients died amongst those prescribed enalapril, lisinopril, and ramipril, respectively. In univariable analysis of the general sample, enalapril and lisinopril were both associated with higher mortality as compared with ramipril treatment (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, p < 0.001, and HR 1.38, CI 1.22-1.56, p < 0.001, respectively). Patients prescribed enalapril or lisinopril had similar mortality (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.92-1.24, p = 0.41). However, there was no significant association between ACEI choice and all-cause mortality in any of the matched samples (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91-1.25, p = 0.40; HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.96-1.32, p = 0.16; and HR 1.08, HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.93-1.31, p = 0.25 for enalapril vs. ramipril, lisinopril vs. ramipril, and enalapril vs. lisinopril, respectively). Results were confirmed in subgroup analyses with respect to age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, NYHA functional class, cause of HFrEF, rhythm, and systolic blood pressure. Conclusion: Our results suggest that enalapril, lisinopril and ramipril are equally effective in the treatment of patients with HFrEF when given at equivalent doses

Very Shallow Water Bathymetry Retrieval from Hyperspectral Imagery at the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR\u2707) Multi-Sensor Campaign

A number of institutions, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), have developed look up tables for remote retrieval of bathymetry and in-water optical properties from hyperspectral imagery (HSI) [6]. For bathymetry retrieval, the lower limit is the very shallow water case (here defined as \u3c 2m), a depth zone which is not well resolved by many existing bathymetric LIDAR sensors, such as SHOALS [4]. The ability to rapidly model these shallow water depths from HSI directly has potential benefits for combined HSI/LIDAR systems such as the Compact Hydrographic Airborne Rapid Total Survey (CHARTS) [10]. In this study, we focused on the validation of a near infra-red feature, corresponding to a local minimum in absorption (and therefore a local peak in reflectance), which can be correlated directly to bathymetry with a high degree of confidence. Compared to other VNIR wavelengths, this particular near-IR feature corresponds to a peak in the correlation with depth in this very shallow water regime, and this is a spectral range where reflectance depends primarily on water depth (water absorption) and bottom type, with suspended constituents playing a secondary role

Screw Compressors

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Epidemiology and long-term outcome in outpatients with chronic heart failure in Northwestern Europe

Objective: To describe the epidemiology, long-term outcomes and temporal trends in mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure (HF) with reduced (HFrEF), mid-range (HFmrEF) or preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) from three European countries. Methods: We identified 10 312 patients from the Norwegian HF Registry and the HF registries of the universities of Heidelberg, Germany, and Hull, UK. Patients were classified according to baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and time of enrolment (period 1: 1995–2005 vs period 2: 2006–2015). Predictors of mortality were analysed by use of univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Results: Among 10 312 patients with stable HF, 7080 (68.7%), 2086 (20.2%) and 1146 (11.1%) were classified as having HFrEF, HFmrEF or HFpEF, respectively. A total of 4617 (44.8%) patients were included in period 1, and 5695 (55.2%) patients were included in period 2. Baseline characteristics significantly differed with respect to type of HF and time of enrolment. During a median follow-up of 66 (33–105) months, 5297 patients (51.4%) died. In multivariable analyses, survival was independent of LVEF category (p>0.05), while mortality was lower in period 2 as compared with period 1 (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.91, p<0.001). Significant predictors of all-cause mortality regardless of HF category were increasing age, New York Heart Association functional class, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and use of loop diuretics. Conclusion: Ambulatory patients with HF stratified by LVEF represent different phenotypes. However, after adjusting for a wide range of covariates, long-term survival is independent of LVEF category. Outcome significantly improved during the last two decades irrespective from type of HF