Benefits of past inventory data as prior information for the current inventory

When auxiliary information in the form of airborne laser scanning (ALS) is used to assist in estimating the population parameters of interest, the benefits of prior information from previous inventories are not self-evident. In a simulation study, we compared three different approaches: 1) using only current data, 2) using non-updated old data and current data in a composite estimator and 3) using updated old data and current data with a Kalman filter. We also tested three different estimators, namely i) Horwitz-Thompson for a case of no auxiliary information, ii) model-assisted estimation and iii) model-based estimation. We compared these methods in terms of bias, precision and accuracy, as estimators utilizing prior information are not guaranteed to be unbiased.202

Carbon substitution and storage benefits from harvested wood products in the Norwegian forest sector

The objective of this thesis was to study the carbon substitution and storage benefits from harvested wood products (HWPs) produced by the Norwegian forest industry today and potentially in the future. Five different product portfolios, scenarios, were considered. Information about the carbon substitution factors and end-uses of the HWPs were acquired from various sources. Monte Carlo analysis were conducted for calculation of the substitution benefits for both production and use, and the end-of-life stages. To calculate the storage benefits, methods applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regulations and production data were used. Scenarios 1 and 2 were defined based on forest sector production statistics. For scenario 1 the average HWP production for the five years 2017 to 2021 was used, while for scenario 2 the 2021 production was used. In scenario 3, recently established or confirmed production capacity investments in Norway were added to the production of HWPs in 2021. For scenario 4, also non-confirmed capacity investment plans aired by the potential investors were added. In scenario 5, the exported wood in scenario 3 was used for domestic production of HWPs with increased carbon substitution factors and longer life spans. Scenario 5 had the greatest substitution and storage benefits of all scenarios. However, the recently established or confirmed production capacity in scenario 3 also increased the carbon substitution benefit substantially compared to previous production capacity defined in scenarios 1 and 2. The carbon sink decreased for all scenarios over time. Paper products and textiles experience the fastest decline due to their rapid oxidation time. The results also revealed that the production and use stage contributed more to the carbon substitution benefit than the end-of-life stage in all scenarios. This was especially apparent in scenario 4 which had the largest share of biofuels and pellets, with no substitution benefit in the end-of-life stage due to incineration during the production and use stage. All mean substitution benefits were significantly different between all the pairs of scenarios. The carbon sink ranged from 0.42 Mt C02 to 1.31 Mt C02 for the different scenarios in 2030. The substitution benefits are indirectly included in the GHG reporting due to the avoided emissions as the result of use of HWPs. To illustrate how much emissions are avoided by substitution benefit, it should be calculated and considered, as it is important for policymakers to develop more effective policies for effectively mitigating climate change. Calculating substitution benefits would also help to plan climate-smart use of the available wood resources

The effects of temporal differences between map and ground data on map-assisted estimates of forest area and biomass

International audienceAbstractKey messageWhen areas of interest experience little change, remote sensing-based maps whose dates deviate from ground data can still substantially enhance precision. However, when change is substantial, deviations in dates reduce the utility of such maps for this purpose.ContextRemote sensing-based maps are well-established as means of increasing the precision of estimates of forest inventory parameters. The general practice is to use maps whose dates correspond closely to the dates of ground data. However, as national forest inventories move to continuous inventories, deviations between map and ground data dates increase.AimsThe aim was to assess the degree to which remote sensing-based maps can be used to increase the precision of estimates despite differences between map and ground data dates.MethodsFor study areas in the USA and Norway, maps were constructed for each of two dates, and model-assisted regression estimators were used to estimate inventory parameters using ground data whose dates differed by as much as 11 years from the map dates.ResultsFor the Minnesota study area that had little change, 7-year differences in dates had little effect on the precision of estimates of proportion forest area. For the Norwegian study area that experienced considerable change, 11-year differences in dates had a detrimental effect on the precision of estimates of mean biomass per unit area.ConclusionsThe effects of differences in map and ground data dates were less important than temporal change in the study area

Prediction of Timber Quality Parameters of Forest Stands by Means of Small Footprint Airborne Laser Scanner Data

The aim of this study was to explore the capability of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data to explain the variation in field-measured variables representing timber quality within square 0.25 ha grid cells in a mature conifer forest in the southeast of Norway. These variables were the mean ratio between stem diameter at six m above ground and the diameter at breast height (R D6 ), the volume of saw logs (V SL ), the proportion of saw logs relative to the total volume (P SL ), the ratio between tree height and diameter at breast height (HD), mean basal area diameter (D g ), and crown height (CH). Each of these variables was modeled using a mixed modeling approach. Model fit was expressed by the Pseudo-R 2 , and were 0.85, 0.50, 0.78, 0.57, 0.74, and 0.58 for the respective quality variables. Furthermore, much of the residual error could be attributed to the different forest stands from which the grid cells originated even though we used field-observed tree species proportions as auxiliary information. It was concluded that more auxiliary information is needed to estimate models that are general across stands, but that the relationships between ALS-data and the quality variables considered here seem strong enough to be utilized for example to prioritize between stands in relation to harvest when specific quality distributions are sought

Large-area inventory of species composition using airborne laser scanning and hyperspectral data

5openInternationalInternational coauthor/editorTree species composition is an essential attribute in stand-level forest management inventories and remotely sensed data might be useful for its estimation. Previous studies on this topic have had several operational drawbacks, e.g., performance studied at a small scale and at a single tree-level with large fieldwork costs. The current study presents the results from a large-area inventory providing species composition following an operational area-based approach. The study utilizes a combination of airborne laser scanning and hyperspectral data and 97 field sample plots of 250 m2 collected over 350 km2 of productive forest in Norway. The results show that, with the availability of hyperspectral data, species-specific volume proportions can be provided in operational forest management inventories with acceptable results in 90% of the cases at the plot level. Dominant species were classified with an overall accuracy of 91% and a kappa-value of 0.73. Species-specific volumes were estimated with relative root mean square differences of 34%, 87%, and 102% for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and deciduous species, respectively. A novel tree-based approach for selecting pixels improved the results compared to a traditional approach based on the normalized difference vegetation index.openØrka, Hans Ole; Hansen, Endre Hofstad; Dalponte, Michele; Gobakken, Terje; Næsset, ErikØrka, H.O.; Hansen, E.H.; Dalponte, M.; Gobakken, T.; Næsset, E

On the Potential of Sequential and Nonsequential Regression Models for Sentinel-1-Based Biomass Prediction in Tanzanian Miombo Forests

This study derives regression models for aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in miombo woodlands of Tanzania that utilize the high availability and low cost of Sentinel-1 data. The limited forest canopy penetration of C-band SAR sensors along with the sparseness of available ground truth restricts their usefulness in traditional AGB regression models. Therefore, we propose to use AGB predictions based on airborne laser scanning (ALS) data as a surrogate response variable for SAR data. This dramatically increases the available training data and opens for flexible regression models that capture fine-scale AGB dynamics. This becomes a sequential modeling approach, where the first regression stage has linked in situ data to ALS data and produced the AGB prediction map; we perform the subsequent stage, where this map is related to Sentinel-1 data.We develop a traditional, parametric regression model and alternative nonparametric models for this stage. The latter uses a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) to translate Sentinel-1 images into ALS-based AGB prediction maps. The convolution filters in the neural networks make them contextual. We compare the sequential models to traditional, nonsequential regression models, all trained on limited AGB ground reference data. Results show that our newly proposed nonsequential Sentinel-1-based regression model performs better quantitatively than the sequential models, but achieves less sensitivity to fine-scale AGB dynamics. The contextual cGAN-based sequential models best reproduce the distribution of ALS-based AGB predictions. They also reach a lower RMSE against in situ AGB data than the parametric sequential model, indicating a potential for further development