Coupling Control Variates for Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We show that Markov couplings can be used to improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations in some situations where the steady-state probability distribution is not explicitly known. The technique generalizes the notion of control variates from classical Monte Carlo integration. We illustrate it using two models of nonequilibrium transport

Bidirectional Psychoneuroimmune Interactions in the Early Postpartum Period Influence Risk of Postpartum Depression

More than 500,000 U.S. women develop postpartum depression (PPD) annually. Although psychosocial risks are known, the underlying biology remains unclear. Dysregulation of the immune inflammatory response and the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis are associated with depression in other populations. While significant research on the contribution of these systems to the development of PPD has been conducted, results have been inconclusive. This is partly because few studies have focused on whether disruption in the bidirectional and dynamic interaction between the inflammatory response and the HPA axis together influence PPD. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that disruption in the inflammatory-HPA axis bidirectional relationship would increase the risk of PPD. Plasma pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were measured in women during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy and on Days 7 and 14, and Months 1, 2, 3, and 6 after childbirth. Saliva was collected 5 times the day preceding blood draws for determination of cortisol area under the curve (AUC) and depressive symptoms were measured using the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Survey (EPDS). Of the 152 women who completed the EPDS, 18% were depressed according to EDPS criteria within the 6 months postpartum. Cortisol AUC was higher in symptomatic women on Day 14 (p = .017). To consider the combined effects of cytokines and cortisol on predicting symptoms of PPD, a multiple logistic regression model was developed that included predictors identified in bivariate analyses to have an effect on depressive symptoms. Results indicated that family history of depression, day 14 cortisol AUC, and the day 14 IL8/IL10 ratio were significant predictors of PPD symptoms. One unit increase each in the IL8/IL10 ratio and cortisol AUC resulted in 1.50 (p = 0.06) and 2.16 (p = 0.02) fold increases respectively in the development of PPD. Overall, this model correctly classified 84.2% of individuals in their respective groups. Findings suggest that variability in the complex interaction between the inflammatory response and the HPA axis influence the risk of PPD

Learning from each other in the COVID-19 pandemic

The increase in cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide has been paralleled by increasing information, and misinformation. Accurate public health messaging is essential to counter this, but education may also have a role. Early in the outbreak, The London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine partnered with FutureLearn to develop a massive open online course (MOOC) on COVID-19. Our approach was grounded in social constructivism, supporting participation, sharing uncertainties, and encouraging discussion. The first run of the course included over 200,000 participants from 184 countries, with over 88,000 comments at the end of the three-week run. Many participants supported each other’s learning in their responses and further questions. Our experience suggests that open education can complement traditional messaging, potentially providing a sustainable approach to countering the spread of misinformation in public health.</ns4:p

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing Genotype and Risk for Treatment Failure and Relapse, Vietnam

Among 2,901 new smear-positive tuberculosis cases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 40 cases of treatment failure and 39 relapsing cases were diagnosed. All initial and follow-up Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates of these case-patients had (nearly) identical restriction fragment length polymorphism patterns, and the Beijing genotype was a significant risk factor for treatment failure and relapse (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.2)

Differentiation of Tuberculosis Strains in a Population with Mainly Beijing-family Strains

A new panel of 25 VNTR-MIRU loci differentiates Beijing-family TB strains better than a panel of 15

Interaction between environmental and genetic factors modulates schizophrenic endophenotypes in the Snap-25 mouse mutant blind-drunk

To understand the pathophysiology of neuropsychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia requires consideration of multiple genetic and non-genetic factors. However, very little is known about the consequences of combining models of synaptic dysfunction with controlled environmental manipulations. Therefore, to generate new insights into gene–environment interactions and complex behaviour, we examined the influence of variable prenatal stress (PNS) on two mouse lines with mutations in synaptosomal-associated protein of 25 kDa (Snap-25): the blind-drunk (Bdr) point mutant and heterozygous Snap-25 knockout mice. Neonatal development was analysed in addition to an assessment of adult behavioural phenotypes relevant to the psychotic, cognitive and negative aspects of schizophrenia. These data show that PNS influenced specific anxiety-related behaviour in all animals. In addition, sensorimotor gating deficits previously noted in Bdr mutants were markedly enhanced by PNS; significantly, these effects could be reversed with the application of anti-psychotic drugs. Moreover, social interaction abnormalities were observed only in Bdr animals from stressed dams but not in wild-type littermates or mutants from non-stressed mothers. These results show for the first time that combining a synaptic mouse point mutant with a controlled prenatal stressor paradigm produces both modified and previously unseen phenotypes, generating new insights into the interactions between genetics and the environment relevant to the study of psychiatric disease

Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process

High spatial resolution imaging of methane and other trace gases with the airborne Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer (HyTES)

Currently large uncertainties exist associated with the attribution and quantification of fugitive emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases such as methane across large regions and key economic sectors. In this study, data from the airborne Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer (HyTES) have been used to develop robust and reliable techniques for the detection and wide-area mapping of emission plumes of methane and other atmospheric trace gas species over challenging and diverse environmental conditions with high spatial resolution that permits direct attribution to sources. HyTES is a pushbroom imaging spectrometer with high spectral resolution (256 bands from 7.5 to 12 µm), wide swath (1–2 km), and high spatial resolution (∼ 2 m at 1 km altitude) that incorporates new thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing technologies. In this study we introduce a hybrid clutter matched filter (CMF) and plume dilation algorithm applied to HyTES observations to efficiently detect and characterize the spatial structures of individual plumes of CH_4, H_2S, NH_3, NO_2, and SO_2 emitters. The sensitivity and field of regard of HyTES allows rapid and frequent airborne surveys of large areas including facilities not readily accessible from the surface. The HyTES CMF algorithm produces plume intensity images of methane and other gases from strong emission sources. The combination of high spatial resolution and multi-species imaging capability provides source attribution in complex environments. The CMF-based detection of strong emission sources over large areas is a fast and powerful tool needed to focus on more computationally intensive retrieval algorithms to quantify emissions with error estimates, and is useful for expediting mitigation efforts and addressing critical science questions

The association between prior statin usage and long-term outcomes after critical care admission

Background: Statins may have immunomodulatory effects that benefit critically ill patients. Therefore we retrospectively examined the association between survival and the prescription of statins prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), or high dependency unit (HDU), as a result of major elective surgery, or as an emergency with a presumed diagnosis of sepsis. Methods: We retrospectively studied critical care patients (ICU or HDU) from a tertiary referral UK teaching hospital. Nottingham University Hospitals has over 2200 beds, of which 39 are critical care beds. Over a five-year period (2000–2005) 414 patients were identified with a presumed diagnosis of sepsis, and 672 patients were identified with a planned ICU/HDU admission following elective major surgery. Patients prescribed statins prior to hospital admission were compared with those who were not. Demographics, past medical history, drug history, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were examined. Univariate and multivariate analyses were applied using the primary endpoint of survival at five years after admission. Results: Patients prescribed statins prior to critical care admission were, on average, older, with higher initial APACHE II scores and more pre-existing comorbidities. Statins were almost invariably stopped following admission to critical care. Statin usage was not associated with significantly altered survival during hospital admission, or at five years, for either patients with sepsis (9% v 15%, P=0.121; 73% v 84%, P=0.503 respectively), or post-operative patients (55% v 58%, P=0.762; 57% v 63%, P=0.390). Conclusions: Prior statin usage was not associated with improved or worsening outcomes in patients admitted to critical care after elective surgical cases or with a presumed diagnosis of sepsis

NIH Workshop 2018: Towards Minimally Invasive or Noninvasive Approaches to Assess Tissue Oxygenation Pre- and Post-transfusion

Because blood transfusion is one of the most common therapeutic interventions in hospitalized patients, much recent research has focused on improving the storage quality in vitro of donor red blood cells (RBCs) that are then used for transfusion. However, there is a significant need for enhancing our understanding of the efficacy of the transfused RBCs in vivo. To this end, the NIH sponsored a one-and-a-half-day workshop that brought together experts in multiple disciplines relevant to tissue oxygenation (eg, transfusion medicine, critical care medicine, cardiology, neurology, neonatology and pediatrics, bioengineering, biochemistry, and imaging). These individuals presented their latest findings, discussed key challenges, and aimed to identify opportunities for facilitating development of new technologies and/or biomarker panels to assess tissue oxygenation in a minimally-invasive to non-invasive fashion, before and after RBC transfusion