Self-Employment - a Way to End Unemployment?: Empirical Evidence from German Pseudo-Panel Data

This paper contributes to the policy-relevant question whether self-employment is a way out of (long-term) unemployment. We estimate the relationship between the entry rate into self-employment and previous (long-term) unemployment on the basis of pseudo-panel data for Germany in the period 1996-2002. The estimation method accounts for cohort fixed effects and measurement errors induced by the pseudo panel structure. We find that previous (long-term) unemployment significantly increases entry rates into self-employment for both men and women. These effects are quantitatively important, both in absolute terms and compared to other potential determinants of self-employment transitions, such as age, the level of vocational qualification and certain household characteristics.self-employment, entrepreneurship, entry rate, start-ups, unemployment, pseudo-panel, age and cohort effects

Returns to education across Europe: A comparative analysis for selected EU countries

Incentives to invest in higher education are affected by both the direct wage effect of human capital investments and the indirect wage effect resulting from lower unemployment risks and shorter spells in unemployment associated with higher educated. We analyse the returns to education in Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom, countries which differ significantly regarding both their education systems and labour market structure. We estimate augmented Mincerian wage equations accounting for the effects of unemployment on individual wages using EU-SILC data. Across countries we find a high variation of the effect of education on unemployment duration. Overall, the returns to education are estimated to be the highest in the UK, and the lowest for Sweden. A wage decrease due to time spent in unemployment results in a decline in the hourly wages in Austria, Germany and Italy. --Returns to education,unemployment,EU-SILC

Expected Future Earnings, Taxation, and University Enrollment: A Microeconometric Model with Uncertainty

Taxation changes the expectations of prospective university students about their future level and uncertainty of after-tax income. To estimate the impact of taxes on university enrollment, we develop and estimate a structural microeconometric model, in which a high-school graduate decides to enter university studies if expected lifetime utility from this choice is greater than that anticipated from starting to work right away. We estimate the ex-ante future paths of the expectation and variance of net income for German high-school graduates, using only information available to those graduates at the time of the enrollment decision, accounting for multiple nonrandom selection and employing a microsimulation model to account for taxation. In addition to income uncertainty, the enrollment model takes into account university dropout and unemployment risks, as well as potential credit constraints. The estimation results are consistent with expectations. First, higher risk-adjusted returns to an academic education increase the probability of university enrollment. Second, high-school graduates are moderately risk averse, as indicated by the Arrow-Pratt coefficient of risk aversion estimated within the model. Thus, higher uncertainty among academics decreases enrollment rates. A simulation based on the estimated structural model indicates that a revenue-neutral, flat-rate tax reform with an unchanged basic tax allowance would increase enrollment rates for men in Germany because of the higher expected net income in the higher income range.University Enrollment, Income Taxation, Flat Tax, Income Risk, Risk Aversion

Regional Measures of Human Capital in the European Union

The accumulation of the human capital stock plays a key role to explain the macroeconomic performance across regions. However, despite the strong theoretical support for this claim, empirical evidence has been not very convincing, probably because of the low quality of the data. This paper provides a robustness analysis of alternative measures of human capital available at the level of EU NUTS1 and NUTS2 regions. In addition to the univariate measures, composite indicators based on different construction principles are proposed. The analysis shows a significant impact of construction techniques on the quality of indicators. While composite indicators and labour income measures point to the same direction of impact, their correlation is not overwhelmingly high. Moreover, popular indicators should be applied with caution. Although schooling and human resources in science and technology explain some part of the regional human capital stock, they cannot explain the bulk of the experience.human capital indicators, regional growth

The Effect of Student Aid on the Duration of Study

In this paper I evaluate the effect of student aid on the success of academic studies. I focus on two dimensions, the duration of study and the probability of actually graduating with a degree. While there is an extensive literature on the impact of student aid on its intended outcome, the uptake of tertiary education, the impact on the outcome and on study incentives has been mainly ignored. But introducing student aid changes the students' budget constraint. The increase in the budget-set might lead to shorter time-to-degree if paid work is substituted by study time. I analyze the effect of financial student aid granted by the German Federal Education and Training Assistance Act (BAfoeG). To determine its impact, I estimate a discrete-time duration model allowing for competing risks to account for different exit states (graduation and dropout) using individual level panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the years 1984-2007. My findings suggest that the duration of study is responsive to the type of financial support a student receives. There are three main results. First, student aid recipients finish faster than comparable students who are supported by the same amount of parental/private transfers only. Second, although higher financial aid does on average not affect the duration of study, this effect is (third) dominated by the increased probability of actually finishing university successfully.academic outcomes, student aid, duration of study, BAfoeG, German Socio-Economic Panel

Returns to education across Europe: A comparative analysis for selected EU countries

Incentives to invest in higher education are affected by both the direct wage effect of human capital investments and the indirect wage effect resulting from lower unemployment risks and shorter spells in unemployment associated with higher educated. We analyse the returns to education in Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom, countries which differ significantly regarding both their education systems and labour market structure. We estimate augmented Mincerian wage equations accounting for the effects of unemployment on individual wages using EU-SILC data. Across countries we find a high variation of the effect of education on unemployment duration. Overall, the returns to education are estimated to be the highest in the UK, and the lowest for Sweden. A wage decrease due to time spent in unemployment results in a decline in the hourly wages in Austria, Germany and Italy

Self-employment: A Way to End Unemployment? Empirical Evidence from German Pseudo-Panel Data

This paper contributes to the policy-relevant question whether self-employment is a way out of (long-term) unemployment. We estimate the relationship between the entry rate into self-employment and previous (long-term) unemployment on the basis of pseudo-panel data for Germany in the period 1996-2002. The estimation method accounts for cohort fixed effects and measurement errors induced by the pseudo panel structure. We find that previous (long-term) unemployment significantly increases entry rates into self-employment for both men and women. These effects are quantitatively important, both in absolute terms and compared to other potential determinants of self-employment transitions, such as age, the level of vocational qualification and certain household characteristics

War-Time Destruction and the Persistence of Economic Activity

A key prediction of a large class of theoretical models is that the location of economic activity is not necessarily determined by fundamentals. To test the empirical relevance of these ideas requires a natural experiment in which a large but ultimately temporary shock dislocates economic activity. Following Davis and Weinstein (2002) a number of papers have used war-time destruction as such a temporary shock. In this paper we revisit this debate and use the cities that were part of pre-war Germany and become part of Poland after the Second World War as a natural experiment. We show that also in this case cities recover surprisingly fast from the war-time shock despite heavy destruction and the expulsion of the entire population. Our results suggest that either the location and size of cities is indeed determined by fundamentals or that even heavily destroyed cities are rebuilt because the ruins contain valuable surviving structures. We provide suggestive qualitative evidence that the second interpretation is more likely correct

Self-employment: a way to end unemployment? Empirical evidence from German pseudo-panel data

This paper contributes to the policy-relevant question whether self-employment is a way out of (long-term) unemployment. We estimate the relationship between the entry rate into self-employment and previous (long-term) unemployment on the basis of pseudo-panel data for Germany in the period 1996-2002. The estimation method accounts for cohort fixed effects and measurement errors induced by the pseudo panel structure. We find that previous (long-term) unemployment significantly increases entry rates into self-employment for both men and women. These effects are quantitatively important, both in absolute terms and compared to other potential determinants of self-employment transitions, such as age, the level of vocational qualification and certain household characteristics

Shifting towards low carbon mobility systems

Private motorised vehicles account today for 90% of total surface transport1 CO2 emissions. Car fleets are growing rapidly in many cities in the developing world, where population and income growth will be concentrated in the coming decades. For example, whilst urban agglomerations with more than 500 000 inhabitants in Latin America, India and China currently account for only about 9% of total global CO2 emissions from motorised passenger surface transport, this share is likely to grow to 20% in the next 40 years. This means that 40% of the total global growth in CO2 emissions related to surface passenger transport will be generated in these cities (ITF, 2015)