Seeking for the rational basis of the median model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

International audienceIn this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner

The supergiant fast X-ray transients XTE J1739-302 and IGR J08408-4503 in quiescence with XMM-Newton

Context. Supergiant fast X-ray transients are a subclass of high mass X-ray binaries that host a neutron star accreting mass from the wind of its OB supergiant companion. They are characterized by an extremely pronounced and rapid variability in X-rays, which still lacks an unambiguous interpretation. A number of deep pointed observations with XMM-Newton have been carried out to study the quiescent emission of these sources and gain insight into the mechanism that causes their X-ray variability. Aims. We continued this study by using three XMM-Newton observations of the two supergiant fast X-ray transient prototypes XTEJ1739-302 and IGR J08408-4503 in quiescence. Methods. An in-depth timing and spectral analysis of these data have been carried out. Results. We found that the quiescent emission of these sources is characterized by both complex timing and spectral variability, with multiple small flares occurring sporadically after periods of lower X-ray emission. Some evidence is found in the XMM-Newton spectra of a soft component below ~2 keV, similar to that observed in the two supergiant fast X-ray transients AXJ1845.0-0433 and IGRJ16207-5129 and in many other high mass X-ray binaries. Conclusions.We suggest some possible interpretations of the timing and spectral properties of the quiescent emission of XTEJ1739- 302 and IGR J08408-4503 in the context of the different theoretical models proposed to interpret the behavior of the supergiant fast X-ray transients.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A. V2: Corrected few typo

Diagnosing transient ionization in dynamic events

The present study aims to provide a diagnostic line ratio that will enable the observer to determine whether a plasma is in a state of transient ionization. We use the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure (ADAS) to calculate line contribution functions for two lines, Si IV 1394 A and O IV 1401 A, formed in the solar transition region. The generalized collisional-radiative theory is used. It includes all radiative and electron collisional processes, except for photon-induced processes. State-resolved direct ionization and recombination to and from the next ionization stage are also taken into account. For dynamic bursts with a decay time of a few seconds, the Si IV 1394 A line can be enhanced by a factor of 2-4 in the first fraction of a second with the peak in the line contribution function occurring initially at a higher electron temperature due to transient ionization compared to ionization equilibrium conditions. On the other hand, the O IV 1401 A does not show such any enhancement. Thus the ratio of these two lines, which can be observed with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, can be used as a diagnostic of transient ionization. We show that simultaneous high-cadence observations of two lines formed in the solar transition region may be used as a direct diagnostic of whether the observed plasma is in transient ionization. The ratio of these two lines can change by a factor of four in a few seconds owing to transient ionization alone.Comment: 3 pages, in press A&

Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy of the M. del Casino section (northern Apennines, Italy) and paleoceanographic conditions at times of Late Miocene sapropel formation

A detailed quantitative calcareous nannofossil analysis has been performed on 138 samples from the astronomically dated Monte del Casino section with the aim to identify and precisely date the most important calcareous nannofossil events across the Tortonian=Messinian boundary in the Mediterranean, and to unravel paleoceanographic conditions at times of sapropel formation during the Late Miocene. From the biostratigraphic perspective, the genus Amaurolithus provides three successive first occurrences (FOs): A. primus, A.cf. amplificus and A. delicatus, dated at 7.446, 7.434 and 7.226 Ma, respectively. Other bioevents include the base and top of the 'small reticulofenestrids' Acme, dated at 7.644 and 6.697 Ma, and the FO, FCO and LO of R. rotaria, dated at 7.405, 7.226 and 6.771 Ma. These events appear to be useful in improving biostratigraphic resolution in the Tortonian-Messinian boundary interval, at least for the Mediterranean. Quantitative analysis revealed changes in the calcareous nannofossil assemblage associated with the sapropels. The observed fluctuations suggest a single mechanism for sapropel formation in the Mediterranean during the late Neogene. Sapropels are characterized by a decrease in the total number of coccoliths, interpreted mainly as a reduction in calcareous nannofossil production due to increased siliceous plankton production during spring blooms; and an increase in reworked specimens, interpreted to reflect enhanced continental input via river run-off. An increase in abundance of the genus Rhabdosphaera can be explained by opportunistic behavior at the end of the spring bloom when nutrient levels start to become impoverished. As far as sea surface water temperature indicators are concerned, warm water D. pentaradiatus shows positive fluctuations in sapropels while cooler water D. intercalaris and C. pelagicus show negative fluctuations. Ó 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

One year of CNR-IMAA multi-wavelength Raman lidar measurements in coincidence with CALIPSO overpasses: Level 1 products comparison

At CNR-IMAA, an aerosol lidar system has operated since May 2000 in the framework of EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network), the first lidar network for tropospheric aerosol study on a continental scale. High quality multi-wavelength measurements make this system a reference point for the validation of data products provided by CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations), the first satellite-borne lidar specifically designed for aerosol and cloud study. Since 14 June 2006, dedicated measurements have been performed at CNR-IMAA in coincidence with CALIPSO overpasses. For the first time, results on 1-year comparisons between ground-based multi-wavelength Raman lidar measurements and corresponding CALIPSO lidar Level 1 profiles are presented. A methodology for the comparison is presented and discussed in detail. Night-time cases are considered to take advantage from Raman capability of the ground based lidar. Cases with the detection of cirrus clouds in CALIPSO data are separately analysed for taking into account multiple scattering effects. For cirrus cloud cases, few cases are available to draw any conclusions. For clear sky conditions, the comparison shows good performances of the CALIPSO on-board lidar: the mean relative difference between the ground-based and CALIPSO Level 1 measurements is always within its standard deviation at all altitudes, with a mean difference in the 3–8 km altitude range of (−2±12)%. At altitude ranges corresponding to the typical PBL height observed at CNR-IMAA, a mean difference of (−24±20)% is observed in CALIPSO data, probably due to the difference in the aerosol content at the location of PEARL and CALIPSO ground-track location. Finally, the mean differences are on average lower at all altitude ranges for the closest overpasses (at about 40 km) respect to the 80-km overpasses

Freestyle-Like V-Y Flaps of the Eyebrow: A New Outlook and Indication of an Historical Technique

The eyebrow region is of utmost importance for facial movement, symmetry, and the overall cosmetic appearance of the face. Trauma or tumor resection often leave scars that may dislocate the eyebrow producing an alteration both in static symmetry of the face and in the dynamic expressivity. The authors present a technique for eyebrow's defects repair using the remaining eyebrow advancement by means of a "freestyle-like" V-Y flap. In the past two years a total of eight consecutive patients underwent excision of skin lesions in the superciliary region and immediate reconstruction with this technique. On histology, six patients were affected from basal cell carcinomas, one from squamous cell carcinoma, and one from congenital intradermal melanocytic nevus. The pedicle of the flap included perforators from the supratrochlear, supraorbital, or superficial temporalis artery. Advancement of the entire aesthetic subunit that includes the eyebrow using a V-Y perforator flap was performed successfully in all cases achieving full, tension-free closure of defects up to 3.0\u2009cm. "Freestyle-like" V-Y flaps should be considered as a first-line choice for partial defects of the eyebrow. The greater mobility compared to random subcutaneous flaps allows to reconstruct large defects providing an excellent cosmetic result

Adipose-derived stem cells: true or false? A different point of view

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Central nervous system manganese induced lesions and clinical consequences in patients with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia

Abstract Background Around 47–74% of patients with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) have hepatic vascular malformations (HVMs); magnetic resonance images (MRI) of the central nervous system (CNS) might show in T1 sequences a hyper-intensity signal in different areas, mainly in the basal ganglia (BG) as consequence of manganese (Mn) deposits as observed in cirrhotic patients. These patients might suffer from different neuropsychiatric disorders (hepatic encephalopathy). In HHT patients, even in the presence of hepatic shunts, hepatocellular function is usually preserved. Additionally, Mn shares iron absorption mechanisms, transferrin and CNS transferrin receptors. In iron deficiency conditions, the Mn may harbor transferrin and access BG. The objectives were to describe frequency of BG Mn deposit-induced lesions (BGMnIL) in HHT patients, its relationship with iron deficiency anemia (IDA) and HVMs. Finally, explore the association between neuropsychological and motor consequences. We performed a cross-sectional study. We determined HHT patients with or without BG-MnIL by the MRI screening of the CNS. We included all patients with lesions and a random sample of those without lesions. All patients underwent standardized and validated neuropsychological assessment to evaluate BG actions. Results were analyzed with multiple logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Results Among 307 participants from a cohort included in the Institutional HHT Registry, 179 patients had MRI performed and Curaçao Criteria ≥3. The prevalence of BG-MnIL was 34.6% (95%CI 27.69-42.09). While neuropsychological symptoms were present in all patients, BG-MnIL patients performed poorly in three of the neuropsychological tests (serial dotting, line tracing time, number connection test A). HVMs frequency in BG-MnIL was 95.1%, versus 71.4% in those without lesions (p < 0.001). IDA frequency was 90.3% versus 54% (p < 0.001). When IDA is present, estimated risk for BG-MnIL is remarkably high (OR 7.73, 95%CI 2.23–26.73). After adjustment for possible confounders (gender, age, presence of HVMs), IDA was still associated with increased risk of BG-MnIL (adjusted OR 6.32, 95% CI 2.32–17.20; p < 0.001). Conclusions Physicians should assess BG-MnIL in HHT patients in CNS-MRI. IDA and HVMs present increased risk of lesions. Patients with BG-MnIL have neuropsychological impairment, and they might benefit from sparing IDA, or undergoing future therapeutic options. Trial registration NCT01761981 . Registered January 3rd 2013

Provinciality and the Art World: The Midland Group 1961- 1977

This paper takes as its focus the Midland Group Gallery in order to first, make a case for the consideration of the geographies of art galleries. Second, highlight the importance of galleries in the context of cultural geographies of the sixties. Third, discuss the role of provinciality in the operation of art worlds. In so doing it explicates one set of geographies surrounding the gallery – those of the local, regional and international networks that connected to produce art works and art space. It reveals how the interactions between places and practices outside of metropolitan and regional hierarchies provides a more nuanced insight into how art worlds operated during the sixties, a period of growing internationalism of art, and how contested definitions of the provincial played an integral role in this. The paper charts the operations of the Midland Group Gallery and the spaces that it occupied to demonstrate how it was representative of a post-war discourse of provincialism and a corresponding re-evaluation of regional cultural activity