Europe's path of strategic recovery: Brace, empower and engage. EPC Discussion Paper 21 April 2020

The impact of the coronavirus offers definitive evidence of Europe’s vulnerability to global challenges and disorder. Its diffusion is the product of multiple governance failures at national and international levels. Geopolitical competition and nationalism have engulfed international affairs, undermining multilateral cooperation needed to manage interdependence

Strategic autonomy for European choices: The key to Europe’s shaping power. EPC Discussion Paper 19 July 2019

Calling for Europe’s strategic autonomy at a time when the European Union (EU) is rife with political divisions on issues such as migration, the future of eurozone governance or the rule of law may seem paradoxical or distracting. However, strategic autonomy is not just a foreign policy issue but a critical requirement for sustaining and fostering European integration. The legitimacy and resilience of the EU will depend on unchaining Europe’s untapped power and enabling European citizens and member states to choose their future, as opposed to being the takers of the decisions of others in a very competitive international context. After the crisis of long-held assumptions about the inevitable spread of the liberal international order on the heels of globalisation, the emerging consensus is that great power rivalry is the new norm. In particular, the standoff between the US and China risks becoming a defining feature of international affairs. If many factors and trends point to a more contested and volatile world, however, the future is not predefined: the EU will play a major role in the development of the international order, whether through its absence or its engagement

A Global Strategy for a soul-searching European Union. EPC Discussion Paper, 13 July 2016

On 28 June 2016, just a few days after the historic Brexit vote, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini presented the paper on the new European Union Global Strategy (EUGS) at the European Council, outlining the strategic coordinates for the EU’s foreign and security policy. In this Discussion Paper, Giovanni Grevi takes a closer look at the EUGS and assesses its main rationale, features, added value and prospects against the backdrop of an ever more complex world. Not only is the EU dealing with increasingly contested and polarised politics at home, but the global theatre itself has become hugely disorienting, more integrated and yet more fragmented at the same time. The paper recalibrates the overall foreign policy posture of the EU and sketches out a more modest and concrete approach compared to earlier aspirations, and a more joined-up one compared to current practice. By doing so, the strategy seeks to square the circle between the need for Europe to be cohesive and purposeful in a harder strategic environment and the fact that domestic politics within the Union constrain its external action and drain its attractiveness. The EUGS calls on the EU and member states to fully take on their responsibility to underpin unity, prosperity and security at home by taking more effective and joined-up action abroad. The question is, of course, whether this call will be heeded

Europe: a question of survival. EPC Commentary, 27 June 2016

The choice of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU) poses a fundamental question that can no longer be avoided – that of the survival of European integration. Chancellor Merkel rightly defined Brexit as a “watershed” moment for Europe. She omitted, however, that beyond this turning point lies the crossroads between a spiral of political and economic disintegration and the very difficult path towards re-asserting the European project

The insurgency takes Washington. EPC Commentary, 9 November 2016

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential elections marks a watershed moment in American political history, and, very possibly, world affairs. Trump has defined his political agenda in opposition to everything that President Obama stands for, claiming more broadly to express the people’s anger at an establishment perceived as distant and corrupt. In closing his electoral campaign, Trump told his supporters: “Today the American working class is going to strike back.” And they did

Lost in transition? US foreign policy from Obama to Trump. EPC Discussion Paper, 2 December 2016

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential elections has shaken long-held assumptions about American foreign policy. In many ways, Trump’s foreign policy discourse (insofar one can discern a coherent one) is defined by his opposition to the grand strategy of international liberal order building and forward-leaning military posture in Europe and Asia that previous administrations have more or less consistently pursued since World War II. In this Discussion Paper, Giovanni Grevi takes a step back from the flurry of commentaries that followed Trump’s election and attempts to provide the reader with some coordinates to navigate the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s foreign policy direction. He places Trump’s own stated positions in the context of the US strategic debate and President Obama’s foreign policy legacy, and reviews some of the political traditions and schools of thought that inform Trump’s vague but potentially consequential foreign policy agenda. Finally, he looks at how all of this might affect transatlantic relations, and Europe itself. While the exact consequences of the expected paradigm shift in the White House remain uncertain, what is clear is that President Trump will confront Europeans with important questions on what they stand for and what they wa

Trump's America: the ordinary superpower. EPC Discussion Paper, 13 June 2017

This paper reviews the main developments in US foreign policy since January 2017 and assesses the prospect of a structural shift of America’s global role. After four months in office, the Trump administration has not triggered a revolution in US foreign policy but it is shaking up the status quo. While there is evidence of both a nationalist and a pragmatic track in the behaviour of the new administration, the former seems to engulf and overshadow the latter. The president defines American national interests more narrowly than his predecessors, sees international relations as predicated on power politics and strength, and takes an ad hoc transactional approach to external affairs. On the other hand, the realities of interdependence and power balances will put Trump’s nationalist and unilateral instincts to the test. How this administration may react to sudden external shocks and crises remains unclear. Beyond the tension between nationalism and pragmatism, this paper argues that Trump’s foreign policy can be seen as another stage of a larger structural shift of the US’ role in world affairs. This is the possible shift from the US seeking to exert a global leadership role informed by liberal values and founded on alliances and multilateral commitments – the ‘exceptional’ superpower – to performing more like an ‘ordinary’ superpower – one still invested in global affairs but more selective in its engagement and more focused on core national interests

Facing War: Rethinking Europe's Security and Defence

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across Europe and the world. While the current war is a geopolitical turning point, it remains unclear whether it will trigger a quantum leap forward for European defence policies and for the role of the European Union as a security provider. This Report investigates whether we can expect a further convergence of European strategic cultures, and on collaboration among Europeans to generate the required military capabilities and integrate their forces. Most importantly, it finds that the timely implementation of the EU’s Strategic Compass will be a decisive test to establish whether Europeans are rising to the challenge of taking more responsibility for their security and defence.Publishe

Yes, we should! EU priorities for 2019-2024. EPC Challenge Europe Issue 24, April 2019

The European Union (EU) is not alone in its struggle to grapple with the major headaches of our times. The Western world as a whole is affected. Inside the Union, the crises in and of its national societies and democracies have radiated to the EU level. Half of the member states have minority governments. If they are politically weak in their own countries, how can the Union be strong? The EU is, after all, also the sum of its member states