Adjoint recovery of superconvergent functionals from PDE approximations

Motivated by applications in computational fluid dynamics, a method is presented for obtaining estimates of integral functionals, such as lift or drag, that have twice the order of accuracy of the computed flow solution on which they are based. This is achieved through error analysis that uses an adjoint PDE to relate the local errors in approximating the flow solution to the corresponding global errors in the functional of interest. Numerical evaluation of the local residual error together with an approximate solution to the adjoint equations may thus be combined to produce a correction for the computed functional value that yields the desired improvement in accuracy. Numerical results are presented for the Poisson equation in one and two dimensions and for the nonlinear quasi-one-dimensional Euler equations. The theory is equally applicable to nonlinear equations in complex multi-dimensional domains and holds great promise for use in a range of engineering disciplines in which a few integral quantities are a key output of numerical approximations

Antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo estimation for multi-dimensional SDEs without L\'{e}vy area simulation

In this paper we introduce a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for multi-dimensional SDEs driven by Brownian motions. Giles has previously shown that if we combine a numerical approximation with strong order of convergence $O(\Delta t)$ with MLMC we can reduce the computational complexity to estimate expected values of functionals of SDE solutions with a root-mean-square error of $\epsilon$ from $O(\epsilon^{-3})$ to $O(\epsilon^{-2})$. However, in general, to obtain a rate of strong convergence higher than $O(\Delta t^{1/2})$ requires simulation, or approximation, of L\'{e}vy areas. In this paper, through the construction of a suitable antithetic multilevel correction estimator, we are able to avoid the simulation of L\'{e}vy areas and still achieve an $O(\Delta t^2)$ multilevel correction variance for smooth payoffs, and almost an $O(\Delta t^{3/2})$ variance for piecewise smooth payoffs, even though there is only $O(\Delta t^{1/2})$ strong convergence. This results in an $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ complexity for estimating the value of European and Asian put and call options.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AAP957 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Decision-making under uncertainty: using MLMC for efficient estimation of EVPPI

In this paper we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average benefit of knowing the value of a subset of uncertain parameters involved in a decision model. The calculation of EVPPI is inherently a nested expectation problem, with an outer expectation with respect to one random variable $X$ and an inner conditional expectation with respect to the other random variable $Y$. We tackle this problem by using a Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method (Giles 2008) in which the number of inner samples for $Y$ increases geometrically with level, so that the accuracy of estimating the inner conditional expectation improves and the cost also increases with level. We construct an antithetic MLMC estimator and provide sufficient assumptions on a decision model under which the antithetic property of the estimator is well exploited, and consequently a root-mean-square accuracy of $\varepsilon$ can be achieved at a cost of $O(\varepsilon^{-2})$. Numerical results confirm the considerable computational savings compared to the standard, nested Monte Carlo method for some simple testcases and a more realistic medical application

Stochastic finite differences and multilevel Monte Carlo for a class of SPDEs in finance

In this article, we propose a Milstein finite difference scheme for a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) describing a large particle system. We show, by means of Fourier analysis, that the discretisation on an unbounded domain is convergent of first order in the timestep and second order in the spatial grid size, and that the discretisation is stable with respect to boundary data. Numerical experiments clearly indicate that the same convergence order also holds for boundary-value problems. Multilevel path simulation, previously used for SDEs, is shown to give substantial complexity gains compared to a standard discretisation of the SPDE or direct simulation of the particle system. We derive complexity bounds and illustrate the results by an application to basket credit derivatives

Electromagnetic atmosphere-plasma coupling: the global atmospheric electric circuit

A description is given of the global atmospheric electric circuit operating between the Earth’s surface and the ionosphere. Attention is drawn to the huge range of horizontal and vertical spatial scales, ranging from 10−9 m to 1012 m, concerned with the many important processes at work. A similarly enormous range of time scales is involved from 10−6 s to 109 s, in the physical effects and different phenomena that need to be considered. The current flowing in the global circuit is generated by disturbed weather such as thunderstorms and electrified rain/shower clouds, mostly occurring over the Earth’s land surface. The profile of electrical conductivity up through the atmosphere, determined mainly by galactic cosmic ray ionization, is a crucial parameter of the circuit. Model simulation results on the variation of the ionospheric potential, ∼250 kV positive with respect to the Earth’s potential, following lightning discharges and sprites are summarized. Experimental results comparing global circuit variations with the neutron rate recorded at Climax, Colorado, are then discussed. Within the return (load) part of the circuit in the fair weather regions remote from the generators, charge layers exist on the upper and lower edges of extensive layer clouds; new experimental evidence for these charge layers is also reviewed. Finally, some directions for future research in the subject are suggested

Analysis of multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation using the Milstein discretisation

The multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method introduced by Giles ({\it Operations Research}, 56(3):607-617, 2008) exploits strong convergence properties to improve the computational complexity by combining simulations with different levels of resolution. In this paper we analyse its efficiency when using the Milstein discretisation; this has an improved order of strong convergence compared to the standard Euler-Maruyama method, and it is proved that this leads to an improved order of convergence of the variance of the multilevel estimator. Numerical results are also given for basket options to illustrate the relevance of the analysis.Comment: 33 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - Series

Generation and use of unstructured grids for turbomachinery calculations

A wavefront mesh generator for two dimensional triangular meshes as well as a brief description of the solution method used with these meshes are presented. The interest is in creating meshes for solving the equations of fluid mechanics in complex turbomachinery problems, although the mesh generator and flow solver may be used for a larger variety of applications. The focus is on the flexibility and power of the mesh generation method for triangulating extremely complex geometries and in changing the geometry to create a new mesh. Two turbomachinery applications are presented which take advantage of this method: the analysis of pylon/strut and pylon/OGV interaction in the bypass of a turbofan

Random Bit Multilevel Algorithms for Stochastic Differential Equations

We study the approximation of expectations \E(f(X)) for solutions $X$ of SDEs and functionals $f \colon C([0,1],\R^r) \to \R$ by means of restricted Monte Carlo algorithms that may only use random bits instead of random numbers. We consider the worst case setting for functionals $f$ from the Lipschitz class w.r.t.\ the supremum norm. We construct a random bit multilevel Euler algorithm and establish upper bounds for its error and cost. Furthermore, we derive matching lower bounds, up to a logarithmic factor, that are valid for all random bit Monte Carlo algorithms, and we show that, for the given quadrature problem, random bit Monte Carlo algorithms are at least almost as powerful as general randomized algorithms