Distributional Impacts of a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Pricing

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We develop a new model of the U.S., the U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model that is resolved for large states and regions of the U.S. and by income class and apply the model to investigate a $15 per ton CO2 equivalent price on greenhouse gas emissions. Previous estimates of distributional impacts of carbon pricing have been done outside of the model simulation and have been based on energy expenditure patterns of households in different regions and of different income levels. By estimating distributional effects within the economic model, we include the effects of changes in capital returns and wages on distribution and find that the effects are significant and work against the expenditure effects. We find the following: First, while results based only on energy expenditure have shown carbon pricing to be regressive we find the full distributional effect to be neutral or slightly progressive. This demonstrates the importance of tracing through all economic impacts and not just focusing on spending side impacts. Second, the ultimate impact of such a policy on households depends on how allowances, or the revenue raised from auctioning them, is used. Free distribution to firms would be highly regressive, benefiting higher income households and forcing lower income households to bear the full cost of the policy and what amounts to a transfer of wealth to higher income households. Lump sum distribution through equal-sized household rebates would make lower income households absolutely better off while shifting the costs to higher income households. Schemes that would cut taxes are generally slightly regressive but improve somewhat the overall efficiency of the program. Third, proposed legislation would distribute allowances to local distribution companies (electricity and natural gas distributors) and public utility commissions would then determine how the value of those allowances was used. A significant risk in such a plan is that distribution to households might be perceived as lowering utility rates That reduced the efficiency of the policy we examined by 40 percent. Finally, the states on the coasts bear little cost or can benefit because of the distribution of allowance revenue while mid-America and southern states bear the highest costs. This regional pattern reflects energy consumption and energy production difference among states. Use of allowance revenue to cut taxes generally exacerbates these regional differences because coastal states are also generally higher income states, and those with higher incomes benefit more from tax cuts.MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a combination of government, industry, and foundation funding, the MIT Energy Initiative, and additional support for this work from a coalition of industrial sponsors

Helminth infections in Apodemus sylvaticus in southern England: interactive effects of host age, sex and year on the prevalence and abundance of infections

Helminth parasites were studied in the wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus, in southern England in September of each of four successive years (1994-1997). Nine species of helminths were recorded: five nematodes (Heligmosomoides polygyrus, Syphacia stroma, Pelodera strongyloides, Trichuris muris, Capillaria murissylvatici), two cestodes (Microsomacanthus crenata, Taenia taeniaeformis) and two trematodes (Corrigia vitta, Brachylaemus recurvum). In total, 134 mice were examined and 91.8% carried at least one species of helminth. The majority of mice carried two to three species (60.5%) and the highest combination was six of the nine species recorded in the study. The patterns of between-year variations in the prevalence and abundance of infection were different for each of the six species for which sufficient quantitative data were available to enable statistical analysis. For H, polygyrus, the most important source of variation arose from between-year differences, host age and. the interaction of these factors: abundance increased with host age but in 1995 the age pattern was markedly different from that in the remaining years. The abundance of C. vitta also varied significantly between years but additionally there was a strong independent age effect. For M. crenata, the year x age interaction was significant, indicating that abundance among different age cohorts varied from year to year but there was also a weak significant main effect of age arising from the youngest age cohort carrying no parasites and the oldest age cohort the heaviest infections. For P, strongyloides the only significant factor was between-year variation with 1995 being a year of exceptionally low prevalence and abundance of infection. No significant between-year variation was detected for S. stroma but there was a strong sex effect (males carrying heavier infections) and an age effect (older mice of both sexes carrying heavier infections). The abundance of Trichuris muris varied only in relation to host age, worm burdens growing in intensity with increasing age, but there was also a significant interaction between year and host sex with respect to prevalence. For the remaining three species, the prevalence of infections was too low (<8.2%) to enable any meaningful interpretation. This analysis emphasizes the need for carefully controlled statistical procedures in aiding the interpretation and the prioritization of the factors affecting worm burdens in wild rodents

Distributional Implications of Alternative U.S. Greenhouse Gas Control Measures

We analyze the distributional and efficiency impacts of different allowance allocation schemes for a national cap and trade system using the USREP model, a new recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. The USREP model tracks nine different income groups and twelve different geographic regions with the United States. Recently proposed legislation include the Waxman-Markey House bill, the similar Kerry-Boxer bill in the Senate that has been replaced by a Kerry-Lieberman draft bill, and the Cantwell-Collins Senate bill that takes a different approach to revenue allocation. We consider allocation schemes motivated by the recent proposals applied to a comprehensive national cap and trade system that limits cumulative greenhouse gas emissions over the control period to 203 billion metric tons. The policy target approximates national goals identified in pending legislation. We find that the allocation schemes in all proposals are progressive over the lower half of the income distribution and proportional in the upper half of the income distribution. Scenarios based on the Cantwell-Collins allocation proposal are less progressive in early years and have lower welfare costs due to smaller redistribution to low income households and consequently lower income-induced increases in energy demand and less savings and investment. Scenarios based on the other three allocation schemes tend to overcompensate some adversely affected income groups and regions in early years but this dissipates over time as the allowance allocation effect becomes weaker. Finally we find that carbon pricing by itself (ignoring the return of carbon revenues through allowance allocations) is proportional to modestly progressive. This striking result follows from the dominance of the sources over uses side impacts of the policy and stands in sharp contrast to previous work that has focused only on the uses side. The main reason is that lower is that lower income households derive a large fraction of income from government transfers and, reflecting the reality that these are generally indexed to inflation, we hold the transfers constant in real terms. As a result this source of income is unaffected by carbon pricing, while wage and capital income is affected.

Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis

Adaptive Compression of Graph Structured Text

In this paper we introduce an adaptive technique for compressing small quantities of text which are organized as a rooted directed graph. We impose a constraint on the technique such that data encountered during a traversal of any valid path through the graph must be recoverable without requiring the expansion of data that is not on the path in question. The technique we present determines the set of nodes y which are guaranteed to be encountered before reaching node x while traversing any valid path in the graph, and uses them as a basis for conditioning an LZW dictionary for the compression/expansion of the data in x. Initial results show that our improved LZW technique reduces the compressed text size by approximately 20 % more than regular LZW, and requires only minor modifications to the standard LZW decompression routine.

Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: A General Equilibrium Approach with Micro-Data for Households

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions. Carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices. A complete analysis requires taking both effects into account. The impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups. It is also affected by precise formulation of the policy (how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed) as well as the treatment of other government policies (e.g. the treatment of transfer payments). What is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups. In this paper, we incorporate 15,588 households from the U.S. Consumer and Expenditure Survey data as individual agents in a comparative-static general equilibrium framework. These households are represented within the MIT USREP model, a detailed general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. In particular, we categorize households by full household income (factor income as well as transfer income) and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low-income (e.g., retired households drawing down their financial assets) from permanently low-income households. We also provide detailed within-group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy

Magma Traps and Driving Pressure: Consequences for Pluton Shape and Emplacement in an Extensional Regime

The level of emplacement and final form of felsic and mafic igneous rocks of the Wichita Mountains Igneous Province, southwestern Oklahoma, U.S.A. Are discussed in light of magma driving pressure, lithostatic load, and crustal magma traps. Deposition of voluminous A-type rhyolites upon an eroded gabbroic substrate formed a subhorizontal strength anisotropy that acted as a crustal magma trap for subsequent rising felsic and mafic magma. Intruded along this crustal magma trap are the A-type sheet granites (length/thickness 100:1) of the Wichita Granite Group, of which the Mount Scott Granite sheet is typical, and smaller plutons of biotite bearing Roosevelt Gabbro. In marked contrast to the subhorizontal granite sheets, the gabbro plutons form more equant stocks with flat roofs and steep side walls. Late Diabase dikes cross-cut all other units, but accompanying basaltic flows are extremely rare in the volcanic pile. Based on magmastatic calculations, we draw the following conclusions concerning the level of emplacement and the shape of these intrusions. (1) Magma can rise to a depth at which the magma driving pressure becomes negligible. Magma that maintains a positive driving pressure at the surface has the potential to erupt. (2) Magma ascent may be arrested at a deeper level in the crust by a subhorizontal strength anisotropy (i.e. crustal magma trap) if the magma driving pressure is greater than or equal to the lithostatic load at the depth of the subhorizontal strength anisotropy. (3) Subhorizontal sheet-intrusions form along crustal magma traps when the magma driving pressure greatly exceeds the lithostatic load. under such conditions, the magma driving pressure is sufficent to lift the overburden to create the necessary space for the intrusion. (4) Thicker steep-sided stocks or batholiths, with flat roofs, form at crustal magma traps when the magma driving pressure approximates that of the lithostatic load. under these conditions, the necessary space for the intrusion must be created by other mechanisms (e.g. stoping). (5) Subvertical sheets (i.e. dikes) form when the magma driving pressure is less than the lithostatic load at the level of emplacement

Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: A General Equilibrium Approach with Micro-Data for Households

Many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions. Carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices. A complete analysis requires taking both effects into account. The impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups. It is also affected by precise formulation of the policy (how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed) as well as the treatment of other government policies (e.g. the treatment of transfer payments). What is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups. In this paper, we incorporate 15,588 households from the U.S. Consumer and Expenditure Survey data as individual agents in a comparative-static general equilibrium framework. These households are represented within the MIT USREP model, a detailed general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. In particular, we categorize households by full household income (factor income as well as transfer income) and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low-income (e.g., retired households drawing down their financial assets) from permanently low-income households. We also provide detailed within-group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios.