The Fed’s rate rise may not provide enough of a boost to the financial sector to allow the US recovery to take off.

Last week, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would increase its Fund Rate by 0.25 percent – the first such increase in nine years. Eddie Gerba writes that under normal economic conditions such an interest rate rise would help savers, lead to more balanced investments, and help firm productivity. But, he points out, conditions post-Great Recession are far from normal. Lower levels of corporate productivity and higher interest rates may mean fewer firms survive, and the financial sector may no longer be able to lead economic recovery due to uncertainty about regulation and the sector’s future

The Imperial Policies in Land Reform and the Conditions of Peasants in Highland Gimbi, Western Wallaga, Ethiopia (1941-974): Historical Perspective

Land has been an economic and political basis in the history of Ethiopia.The feudal governments since the time of Minilik II measured, confiscated and redistributed land to those politically important individuals. The objective of this study is to assess the imperial policies in land reform and the conditions of peasants in highland Gimbi, Western Wallaga from 1941 to 1974. This study has used both primary and secondary sources to examine the imperial government land reform and the conditions of peasants in highland Gimbi from 1941 to 1974. Archival sources from Wolde-Mesqal Archival center at the Institute of Ethiopian Studies, Addis Ababa University, and oral sources[1] collected through in-depth interview are extremely important in this regard. Under the imperial government in post-liberation period, land reform and its grants to officials and others concentrated land in few hands whereas the number of the landless peasants highly increased. Even though, the 1952 imperial order theoretically enabled the landless farmers to get half gasha of land, in Gimbi no grant was made to the landless peasants. Land privatization was aggravated under the restored government. Above all, with the intensification of coffee cultivation, in highland Gimbi the price of land was exacerbated to the extent that only the well-to-do class members were able to buy land at the expense of the majority of the peasants. Overall, the study of the imperial policies in land reform and its impacts on the population at the grassroot level enable us to have a better historical perspective towards land tenure system and the peasants whose livelihood directly tied to it. Keywords -Land tenure, land reform, land measurement, landless peasants, Gimbi DOI: 10.7176/HRL/52-03 Publication date: December 31st 2020 1Informants were willing to share their views on the issues they were interviewed, but some asked for confidentiality of their identities. So, instead of mentioning their name the researcher prefer to indicate them by number in referenc

Conducting Workshops That Assist Content Area Teachers With ESL Students: Two Models

This project describes the preparation of a workshop given for content area and regular classroom teachers In Nutley, New Jersey, who had ESL students. The purpose of the workshop was to improve the teachers\u27 ability to work effectively with these students. The preparation included selecting the topics to be covered, conducting the research and organizing the structure and details of the workshop. An outline of that workshop and suggestions for giving one like It are presented. The project further describes the preparation of a TESOL demonstration given for ESL teachers and administrators In which they were shown how to give this kind of workshop for content area and regular classroom teachers. The purpose of this project is to provide a model workshop or a TESOL demonstration for Interested ESL teachers who need to present either one

Financial (in)stability, low interest rates and (un)conventional monetary policy: potential risks and policy measures

Since the advent of the global financial crisis of 2007–08, major central banks in advanced economies - the US Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the ECB - have undertaken monetary policies with a view to keep interest rates low. They have also significantly expanded the monetary base (and their balance sheets) through the adoption of unconventional monetary policies, although at different times and in different forms. Several years of unconventional monetary policies and exceptionally low interest have improved banks’ health, eased credit conditions and, ultimately, helped supporting the economy. However, these policies may have undesirable side- effects that could put financial stability at risk the longer they are in place. Against this background, this paper discusses the main threats to financial stability potentially triggered by unconventional monetary policies, especially in an environment of low interest rates, analyse the interrelation between financial stability and monetary policy at the current juncture and briefly assess the viability of specific measures that could prove helpful to contain such risks, given the current institutional framework

Macroprudential policy in a Knightian uncertainty model with credit-, risk-, and leverage cycles

We study the impact of uncertainty on financial stability and the business cycle. We extend the work of Boz and Mendoza (2014) by endogenizing credit production, modifying learning mechanism into an adaptive set-up, as well as including financial and monetary policies. In our model households are (intrinsically) rational but take economic decisions under incomplete information. The incompleteness is not caused by their cognitive limitations, as in rational inattention theory (Sims, 2003). Households `learn by doing' and once a sufficient number of realizations of the state variable have materialized, and the incomplete information set is completed. This learning set-up is incorporated into a New Keynesian model with credit market frictions, extended to include uncertainty, where a share of households needs external financing to consume. Because of limited enforceability of financial contracts, households are required to provide collateral for their loans, and so the relationship between the bank and household is tightened for many periods ahead. We find in our framework the build up of risk, leverage, increase in consumption and price of collateral takes longer than in other DSGEs with standard financial friction models. We also find that both the frequency and the amplitude of expansions and contractions are asymmetric - recessions are less frequent and deeper than expansions. Moreover, we find that boom-bust cycles occur as rare events. Using the Cogley and Sargant's (2008) definition of a severe(or systemic) crisis, we find on average two such events per century. We also find that, different from standard boom-bust cycles, a systemic crisis can be followed by a sequence of subsequent contractions, as it makes the economy more unstable. The result is asymmetric distributions of key macroeconomic and financial variables, with high skewness and fat tails. Lastly, we also find that, by reducing the amount of borrowing and leverage in upturns, the LTV-ratio regulation is effective in smoothing the cycles and reducing the effects of a deep contraction on the real-financial variables. We also discuss the role of macroprudential policy in reducing information incompleteness by generating information that helps the agent learn faster the new environment, or provide a smoother transition to the new economic environment

The finance-welfare state nexus. ACES Cases No. 2013.1

At the height of the financial crisis, the Western welfare state prevented a repeat of the Great Depression. But there were also suggestions that social policy had contributed to the crisis, particularly by promoting households’ access to credit in pursuit of welfare goals. Others claim that it was the withdrawal of state welfare that led to the disaster. Against this background that motivated our interest, we propose a systematic way of assessing the relationship between financial market and public welfare provisions. We use structural vector auto-regression to establish the causal link and its direction. Two hypotheses about this relationship can be inferred from the literature. First, the notion that welfare states ‘decommodify’ livelihoods or that there is an equity-efficiency tradeoff would suggest that welfare states substitute to varying degrees for financial market offers of insurance and savings. By contrast, welfare states may support private interests selectively and/or help markets for households to function better; thus the nexus would be one of complementarity. Our empirical strategy is to spell out the causal mechanisms that can account for a substitutive or complementary relationship and then to see whether advanced econometric techniques find evidence for the existence of either of these mechanisms in six OECD countries. We find complementarity between public welfare (spending and tax subsidies) and life insurance markets for four out of our six countries, notably even for the United States. Substitution between welfare and finance is the more plausible interpretation for France and the Netherlands, which is surprising. Data availability constrains us from testing the implications for the welfare state contribution to the crisis directly but our findings suggest that the welfare state cannot generally be blamed for the financial crisis

Spending rises are more effective in expanding the economy by as much as 20 percent compared to tax cuts

Both fiscal and monetary authorities have engaged in ‘unconventional’ policies over the past few years in order to bring the Great Recession under control. But, have these actions been intentionally coordinated, and what has been their economic impact? More fundamentally, has there ever been a systematic or regular coordination between fiscal and monetary policy in the US? Eddie Gerba and Klemens Hauzenberger find sufficient evidence for an implicit coordination of policies, and demonstrate how it has changed over the past three decades. They find that spending and tax stimuli have notably been more efficient in expanding the economy during the Volcker chairmanship (1979-84) and the Great Recession (2008-12). Taking into account that the current interest rate is constrained by the zero lower bound, fiscal authorities have an unprecedented window of opportunity to pursue activist policies aimed at expanding output, if and only if they carefully manage the expectations of private agents

The Ethiopian Agricultural Extension System and Its Role as a Development Actor : Cases from Southwestern Ethiopia

Smallholder agriculture forms the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, supporting the majority of the country's population. Since the late 1960s, the state has been actively pursuing agricultural extension as a key means of agricultural and rural development as well as economic transformation. Over the years, the state has introduced several reforms to update and validate its agricultural extension agenda. However, despite reforms, the effectiveness of the extension service in promoting technology transfer and enhancing its adoption has remained low. Top-down planning and poor technology transfer have been identified as the main bottlenecks. In 2010, as part of its recent reform process, the Ministry of Agriculture has adopted the participatory extension system, which is characterized by the formation of farmer groups. Development agents and model farmers are key actors in the implementation of the participatory extension system. The kebele administration oversees the implementation at the local level. However, kebeles are weakly institutionalized with poor capacity; hence, their duties are often transferred to the development agents. Despite the steadily increasing number of development agents, most are insufficiently trained and involved in multiple activities, which diminishes their effectiveness in providing agricultural services and earning the farmers' trust. Attempts have been made to provide group extension services through public mobilization; however, community involvement is achieved through persuasion and pressure, which can lead to adverse effects on their participation. This study examines the participatory extension system by focusing on the concept of governance, participation and evolution of agricultural extension. Its main purpose is to analyze and describe the Ethiopian agricultural extension system and understand its opportunities and challenges as a development actor. The study draws on field research carried out in 2015 and 2016, using a mixed methods approach, secondary data, and literature reviews. Data were documented, coded and analyzed using ATLAS.ti and SPSS. The findings of the study show that the Ethiopian state has invested considerable resources in maintaining a strong agricultural extension system. Over the years, the state has developed and issued a series of agricultural policies and strategies to nurture service provision and promote rural development. However, the strategies are typically not well communicated to the actors and end users. The implementation of the participatory extension system is also inconsistent, showing limited impact and sustainability across study sites. Overall, agricultural extension is constrained by multiple challenges. These include high input and low output prices, knowledge and skill gaps among development agents and model farmers, non-inclusive extension services system, ambitious top-down allocation of plans, and actors' involvement in non-extension activities. These limit farmers' participation in technology adoption and upscaling and weaken the efficiency of both the development agents and the model farmers. As a result, the majority of the farmers resort to social learning and local network for interactions and for acquiring knowledge. This analysis indicates that along with the public, involving the private and non-governmental organizations extension services may allow other actors to be involved in the extension services and help address the prevailing gaps of inadequate capacity and skills, shortage of inputs such as improved seeds, and price escalation. Understanding strengths, limitations and reform options of the current system through the lens of Evolutionary Governance Theory, can also enable top actors/planners to formulate better policies and strategies. Introducing pro-poor strategies is vital to involve the disadvantaged groups of the society. Promoting real farmer participation and a paradigm shift in focus—from targeting spatial coverage to effective outcomes—are essential for the agricultural extension system to succeed. Realistic decentralization can nurture and promote real participation and allow farmers to develop a sense of ownership toward the initiatives and its benefits. Finally, exempting development agents and model farmers' involvement in non-extension activities, while improving their skill sets, is vital for improving the agricultural extension service system in Ethiopia.Kleinbäuerliche Landwirtschaft beschäftigt als Grundlage der äthiopischen Wirtschaft die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung des Landes. Seit den 1960er Jahren baut der äthiopische Staat die landwirtschaftliche Beratung als Mittel zur ländlichen Entwicklung und wirtschaftlichen Transformation massiv aus. Über die Jahre wurden die staatlichen landwirtschaftlichen Beratungssysteme häufig neu ausgerichtet. Trotz zahlreicher Reformen ist ihre Effektivität jedoch gering geblieben. Hauptprobleme liegen in einer hierarchischen Planung und unzureichendem Technologietransfer. Im Zuge neuerlicher Reformen hat das äthiopische Landwirtschaftsministerium im Jahre 2010 das participatory extension system verabschiedet, welches die Bildung von farmer groups vorsieht. Development Agents und sogenannte model farmers sind die Hauptakteure in der Umsetzung von participatory extension system. Die kebele Gemeindeadministrationen sollen dabei die Umsetzung auf lokaler Ebene übernehmen. Da diese jedoch in der Regel über zu geringe Kapazitäten verfügen, werden diese Aufgaben häufig an die development agents übertragen. Die Anzahl von development agents im ländlichen Äthiopien hat in den letzten Jahren stark zugenommen. Allerdings sind sie zumeist unzureichend ausgebildet und in eine Vielzahl von Aktivitäten involviert, was ihre Effektivität in der Bereitstellung landwirtschaftlicher Beratung sowie in der Gewinnung des Vertrauens der Bauern einschränkt. Es wurde daher versucht, Gruppenberatungsdienste durch öffentliche Mobilisierung bereitzustellen. Dabei wurde versucht, die Einbindung der lokalen Bevölkerung weitgehend durch Druck zu erzielen. Diese Studie untersucht das participatory extension system in Äthiopien unter Nutzung der Konzepte von governance, Partizipation und der Entwicklung landwirtschaftlicher Beratungsdienste. Das Hauptziel der Arbeit besteht in der Beschreibung und Analyse des äthiopischen landwirtschaftlichen Beratungssystems und seiner Rolle als Entwicklungsakteur. Die Studie baut auf Feldforschung auf, die in den Jahren 2015 und 2016 in Äthiopien durchgeführt wurde. Dabei wurde ein Methodenmix angewandt. Die Primärdaten wurden mit Hilfe von ATLAS.ti und SPSS verarbeitet. Die Ergebnisse der Studie zeigen, dass der äthiopische Staat große Ressourcen in den Aufbau und die Bereitstellung von landwirtschaftlichen Beratungssystems investiert. Über die Jahre hat der Staat dabei eine Reihe an Strategien entwickelt um landwirtschaftliche Dienste im Speziellen und ländliche Entwicklung im Allgemeinen zu fördern. Diese Strategien wurden allerdings häufig nicht ausreichend an die Akteure und Betroffenen kommuniziert. Die Umsetzung von participatory extension system erfolgt häufig widersprüchlich, mit eher geringer Wirkung und Nachhaltigkeit in den Untersuchungsgebieten. Generell stehen die staatlichen landwirtschaftlichen Beratungsdienste vor großen Herausforderungen, wie etwa hohen Kosten für landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgüter, niedrige Preisen für die erzeugten Produkte, einer unzureichenden Qualifikation der Berater, nicht inklusiven Beratungssystemen, überambitionierten und hierarchischen Planungen, sowie der Mitwirkung von development agents in zahlreichen nicht-Beratungsaktivitäten. All dies beschränkt die Partizipation der Bauern sowie die Einführung und Hochskalierung von Technologien. Als Konsequenz vertraut die Mehrzahl der Bauern auf informelles soziales Lernen und lokale Netzwerkinteraktionen für den Wissens-, und Technologietransfer. Die hier vorgelegte Analyse zeigt, dass die Einbindung von privaten Dienstleistern und Nicht-Regierungs-Organisation – in Zusammenarbeit mit den staatlichen landwirtschaftlichen Beratungsdiensten - helfen könnte, grundlegende Probleme wie die ungenügenden Kapazitäten, das geringe Fachwissen, und den Mangel an Produktionsmitteln (etwa an verbessertem Saatgut) wirksam anzugehen. Die Stärken, Beschränkungen und Reformmöglichkeiten des gegenwärtigen Beratungssystems mit Hilfe der Evolutionary Governance Theory zu verstehen kann wichtigen Akteuren und Planern helfen ihre Politiken und Strategien besser zu formulieren. Armutsorientierte Ansätze sind dabei entscheidend um benachteiligte Gruppen der Gesellschaft einzubinden. Eine wirkliche Einbeziehung und Beteiligung der Bauern und ein Paradigmenwechsel weg von einer flächendeckenden Bereitstellung unzureichender Dienste hin zu effektiver Wirksamkeit ist dabei wesentlich um das landwirtschaftlichen Beratungssystems erfolgreich zu gestalten. Dezentralisierung kann dabei helfen Partizipation zu befördern und Bauern zu ermöglichen Beteiligungsstrukturen anzunehmen. Nicht zuletzt ist die Regelung der Mitwirkung von development agents und model farmers in nicht-Beratungsaktivitäten, sowie die Integration und Stärkung ihrer Expertise absolut erforderlich zur Verbesserung des landwirtschaftlichen Beratungssystems in Äthiopien

Monetary transmission under competing corporate finance regimes = Transmisión monetaria bajo regímenes alternativos de finanzas corporativas

The behavioural agent-based framework of De Grauwe and Gerba (2015) is extended to allow for a counterfactual exercise on the role of banks for monetary transmissions. A bank-based corporate financing friction is introduced and the relative contribution of that friction to the effectiveness of monetary policy is evaluated. We find convincing evidence that the monetary transmission channel is stronger in the bank-based system compared to the market-based. Impulse responses to a monetary expansion are around the double of those in the market-based framework. The (asymmetric) effectiveness of monetary policy in counteracting busts is, on the other hand, relatively higher in the market-based model. The statistical fit of the bank-based behavioural model is also improved compared to the benchmark model. Lastly, we find that a market-based (bankbased) financing friction in a general equilibrium produces highly asymmetric (symmetric) distributions and more (less) pronounced business cycles