Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia

open3Blanford, Geoffrey J; Rose, Steven K.; Tavoni, MassimoBlanford, Geoffrey J; Rose, Steven K.; Tavoni, Massim

Impact of revised CO2 growth projections for China on global stabilization goals

Recent growth in carbon dioxide emissions from China's energy sector has exceeded expectations. In a major US government study of future emissions released in 2007 (1), participating models appear to have substantially underestimated the near-term rate of increase in China's emissions. We present a recalibration of one of those models to be consistent with both current observations and historical development patterns. The implications of the new specification for the feasibility of commonly discussed stabilization targets, particularly when considering incomplete global participation, are profound. Unless China's emissions begin to depart soon from their (newly projected) business-as-usual path, stringent stabilization goals may be unattainable. The current round of global policy negotiations must engage China and other developing countries, not to the exclusion of emissions reductions in the developed world and possibly with the help of significant financial incentives, if such goals are to be achieved. It is in all nations' interests to work cooperatively to limit our interference with the global climate

Technology Diffusion, Abatement Cost and Transboundary Pollution

This paper studies countries' incentives to develop advanced pollution abatement technology when technology may spillover across countries and pollution abatement is a global public good. We are motivated in part by the problem of global warming: a solution to this involves providing a global public good, and will surely require the development and implementation of new technologies. We show that at the Nash equilibrium of a simultaneous-move game with R&D investment and emission abatement, whether the free rider effect prevails and under-investment and excess emissions occur depends on the degree of technology spillovers and the effect of R&D on the marginal abatement costs. There are cases in which, contrary to conventional wisdom, Nash equilibrium investments in emissions reductions exceed the first-best case

Technology Transfer in the Non-Traded Sector as a Means to Combat Global Warming

The paper considers a situation where two countries - the North and the South - use a non-traded polluting input to produce the goods for final consumption. The North is more efficient in both, production and abatement processes. The study compares the effects of the transfer of abatement technology by the North to the South under autarky with the free trade situation, assuming that the North pre-commits to an international protocol to keep the global pollution under a fixed level. The conditions under which either full or partial technology is transferred in autarky are determined. It is shown that under free trade no such transfer is possible. With trade even though the North wants a complete transfer of technology, the South refuses it

Sexual Orientation and Household Decision Making: Same-Sex Couples' Balance of Power and Labor Supply Choices

I estimate how intra-household bargaining affects gay and lesbian couples' labor supplies, investigating their similarity to heterosexual decision-making, in a collective household framework. Data from the 2000 US Census show that couples of all types exhibit a significant response to bargaining power shifts, as measured by differences between partners in age or non-labor income. In gay, lesbian, and heterosexual cohabiting couples, a relatively young or rich partner has more bargaining power and hence supplies less labor, the opposite holding for his/her mate. Married couples value the older spouse instead, or the richer. No effects are found for same-sex roommates

The Relationship between Environmental Efficiency and Manufacturing Firm's Growth

This paper investigates the empirical link between emission intensity and economic growth, using a very large data set of 61,219 Italian manufacturing firms over the period 2000-2004. As a measure of lagged environmental performance (efficiency) at firm level we exploit NAMEA sector for CO2, NOx, SOx data over 1990-1999. The paper tests the extent to which (past) environmental efficiency/intensity, which is driven by structural features and firm strategic actions, including responses to policies, influences firms growth. Our results show, first, a typical trade off generally appearing for the three core environmental emissions we analyse: lower environmentally efficiency in the recent past allows higher degrees of freedom to firms and relax the constraints for growth, at least in this short/medium term scenario. Nevertheless, the size of the estimated coefficients is not large. Trade offs are significant for two emission indicators out of two, but quite negligible in terms of impacts, besides the case of CO2. For example, growth is reduced by far less than 0.1% in association to a 1% increase of environmental efficiency. In addition, non-linearity seems to characterise the economic growth-environmental performance relationship. Signals of inverted U shape appear: this may be a signal that both firm strategies and recent policy efforts are affecting the dynamic relationship between environmental efficiency and economic productivity, turning it from an usual trade off to a possible joint complementary/co-dynamics