Estimating panel VARs from macroeconomic data: Some Monte Carlo evidence and an application to OECD public spending shocks

This paper compares the performance of six widely applied techniques to estimate panel VARs from macroeconomic (large T) data. We show that the bias of the popular least squares dummy variable estimator remains substantial even when the time dimension of the dataset is relatively large. Adopting a bias correction to the simple fixed-effects estimator is strongly recommended to obtain consistent estimates of the implied impulse response functions. Multivariate extensions of the GMM-type estimators usually applied for estimating single-equation dynamic panel data models perform reasonably well in terms of bias, but poorly in terms of root mean square error, in particular if the variance of the fixed effects is large relative to the variance of the innovations. To illustrate the methodological arguments we present an application in which we use annual OECD country data to estimate the effects of changes in government consumption on aggregate output, private consumption, investment, and real wages. JEL classification: C13, C33, E62, E0

Milk, meaning, and morality

Donated human milk’s status comes into question as it leaves the mother-child relationship and is reconfigured through practices and discursive structures that seek to stabilise it as a specific kind of object. Based on research conducted in Cape Town, South Africa, we examine the crucial role of technologies in aiding the milk’s transformation as milk moves from donors’ homes into the clinical setting where it is received by preterm, low-birth weight newborns. We show that the milk shifts back and forth between being a bodily fluid, food, and medicine in the course of this trajectory. Different techniques foreground milk’s diverse properties as a set of moral decisions converges around saving, securing, and sustaining life, and materialising relationships

LVHN Weekly

https://scholarlyworks.lvhn.org/lvhn-weekly/1279/thumbnail.jp

Prevision des difficultes bancaires : un modele d'alerte precoce pour le cas du maroc

This paper proposes an early warning model that can predict vulnerabilities in the Moroccan banking system. This tool is part of a financial stability perspective because of its ability to anticipate banking weaknesses. Thus, and inspired by the practices of major central banks, notably those of the FED and the ECB, a logit model in panel data was developed on eight major Moroccan banks representing more than 90% of the banking system. This model relates the probability of distress and several macroeconomic and financial variables likely to anticipate banking difficulties. The results show that the bank leverage ratio and the output gap are the main determinants of banking difficulties in Morocco. Indeed, the analysis of the marginal effects shows that a 1% variation of these two determinants impacts the probability of distress of Moroccan banks by almost 20% and 14% respectively. In parallel, the examination of Type 1 and Type 2 errors indicates that the predictive quality of the chosen model and its ability to send good signals are widely acceptabl

El Derecho económico y la metáfora de la libre competencia : un análisis filosófico

El derecho económico como un derecho de la organización de la economía cuestiona las metáforas de “la libre competencia” y “la mano invisible” como reguladores naturales de los mercados; puesto que, al reducirlas al absurdo simplemente son máscaras metafísicas transpuestos en objetos reales de contenido opuesto al tropo utilizado. Así, por ejemplo, metafóricamente se denomina “libre competencia” a un mercado de competencia imperfecta cuando la “libre competencia” se denomina a un modelo de mercado de competencia perfecta ideal e inalcanzable.Tesi

Comportamiento del ahorro a lo largo del proceso de desarrollo : ¿es cierto que Argentina ahorra tan poco?

El propósito de este trabajo es plantear que es preciso contextualizar la decisión de ahorro en cada país para poder hacer una comparación sensible a heterogeneidades observadas. El método que proponemos tiene dos etapas. En la primera etapa, se lleva a cabo un análisis econométrico utilizando el método S-GMM para determinar los coeficientes que determinan el ahorro privado en una muestra de datos de panel. Luego, se contrasta la experiencia de Argentina contra la estimación de los datos. En un ejercicio contrafáctico se compara el ahorro privado argentino con el de China estandarizando los determinantes demográficos entre ambos países. Los resultados del modelo econométrico están en línea con la literatura existente. El contrafáctico sugiere que Argentina ahorra 3.7 p.p. por debajo de lo que predice el modelo, y que la experiencia de ahorro argentino con las tasas demográficas chinas permite explicar gran parte de las diferencias de ahorro entre estas economías. Concluímos que Argentina, efectivamente ahorra poco con respecto a sus propios fundamentals, y la brecha de ahorro privado entre Argentina y China se reduce a la mitad cuando se reemplazan los componentes demográficos y de ruralización