Self-rated health status and cardiorespiratory fitness as predictors of mortality in men

Self-rated health (SRH) and cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness) are independent risk factors for all-cause mortality. The purpose of this report is to examine the single and joint effects of these exposures on mortality risk. The study included 18 488 men who completed a health survey, clinical examination and a maximal exercise treadmill test during 1987–2003. Cox regression analysis was used to quantify the associations of SRH and fitness with all-cause mortality. There were 262 deaths during 17 years of follow-up. There was a significant inverse trend (ptrend \u3c0.05) for mortality across SRH categories after adjustment for age, examination year, body mass index, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, abnormal ECG, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer. Adjustment for fitness attenuated the association (p value =0.09). The authors also observed an inverse association between fitness and mortality after controlling for the same covariates and SRH (ptrend = 0.006). The combined analysis of SRH and fitness showed that fit men with good or excellent SRH had a 58% lower risk of mortality than their counterparts. SRH and fitness were both associated with all-cause mortality in men. Fit men with good or excellent SRH live longer than unfit men with poor or fair SRH

Market Value Volatility and the Volume of Traded Stock for U.S. Industrial Corporations

A novel two-phase econometric approach was used to first obtain the variance (volatility) of the firm’s market value adjusted for its common stock repurchases and other determinants (the traditional approach). Then, the variance of some 1,077 firms was used to predict the volume of the firm’s common stock traded over a given period of time (the novel approach). The hypothesis was that fast traders in the stock market can use the variance of the firm’s market value as a source of risk information, when deciding on what stock to purchase. An unbalanced panel of firms covering the quarterly time periods from 1999 (4) to 2017 (1) was analyzed by the longitudinal method to obtain the variances. Then, linear regression was used to relate the volume of stock traded to the variances. The novel method goes beyond the traditional volatility approach. The statistical results were acceptable for both phases, but with some concern over the use of the variance as an independent determinant in the second phase analysis

Microeconomics of Corruption Among Developing Economies

A simple micro model of a firm’s investment decision made under the uncertainty of the success of a bribe of a government official is developed. The probability of success of the bribe is a function of the amount paid to the official to “get things done.” The operational model runs the amount of the bribe on such determinants as firm size, country size, shareholder ownership, political instability, and court system. The data covers the periods 2002-2005 and 2006-2010, includes 150 developing countries and has data on some 72,000 firms. Several econometric estimation methods were used. The findings support earlier studies, to wit, firm size and country size are inversely related to the index of corruption. Political instability and the court system were positively related to corruption. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.Firm, Corruption, Uncertainty, Developing Countries. JEL Classification:

Macroeconomic Analysis of Corruption in Developing Economies

Based on empirical data, a two-equation game-type corruption reaction function model was developed. A “data to model” approach was used rather than the usual a priori approach. The general hypothesis tested was the “monkey see, monkey do” principle. The latest data on corruption among developing countries was obtained from the Enterprise Surveys done by the World Bank Group in 2010. The key variables were the percent of domestic firms expecting to make informal payment to public officials to “get things done,” and the percent of foreign firms doing like wise. The time span is from 2002-2010. A variety of econometric methods were used. In general, the statistical results were quite good and supported the hypothesis. Both reaction equations were positively sloped. Time had a reducing effect on the frequency of domestic corruption, yet it had an increasing effect on foreign corruption. Variations in the frequency of corruption across regions of countries were generally not significant.Firm, Corruption, Game Model, Developing Countries JEL Classification: C51; D81; E60; K49; M29

The managerial limit to the growth of Firms revisited

The Penrose Hypothesis that managerial resources will grow at a rate somewhat faster than that of firm size is tested along with the alternative steady-state hypothesis that both grow at the same rate. A dynamic firm model is used to motivate the study. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Employment Statistics are used to measure managerial resources. Firm size is in terms of employment, or real value added, or real value of shipments. The data cover the period 2003–2006 and are used with a Cobb‐Douglas type log‐form growth function. The statistical results are quite strongly in favor of the Penrose Hypothesis, suggesting a managerial limit to the rate of growth of the firm. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extreme Value Theory and the Financial Crisis of 2008

The paper offers an alternative approach to analyzing stock market time series data. The purpose is to develop descriptive, more intuitive, and closer to reality analogs of the behavior of US stock market prices, as indexed by the S&P500 stock price index covering the period October 2003 to October 2008. One analog developed is the “escalator principle” and the blind man. The approach is to treat prices as a random and independent variable and use extreme value theory to judge probabilistically whether prices and their attributes are from an initial universe or whether there has been a regime change. The attributes include the level, first difference, second difference and third difference of the ordered price series. Various graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually normal with either a constant or time-dependent variance (or measureable risk) and consequently does not handle well uncertainty (non-measureable risk) due to regime changes. The analogs show the investor how to determine when a regime change has likely occurred.S&P500, Probability, Regime, Uncertainty

Firm Debt Structure and Firm Size

The recent macro monetary policy debate over the existence of bank lending channels focuses on short-term bank borrowing versus short-term non-bank borrowing by firms. The approach is macro using aggregate manufacturing corporation data from the QFR of the US Census Bureau. In the present paper, the approach is micro using Compustat corporation data. In the macro approach, the price-substitution effect between bank and non-bank lending is studied to test the existence of a bank lending channel. Pricing (interest rates) data are not available in the micro data. However, the scale effect (Slutsky equation) on term debt structure can be studied. Using regression analysis, covering the period 1995 to 2007 with an unbalanced panel sample of 30,789 observations, the log of the ratio of accounts payable in trade to the long-term debt is regressed on revenue, assets, net income, retained earnings, and dummy variables for industry classifications and monetary conditions. The revenue-size effect was positively related to the debt ratio, assets were negatively related, and retained earnings were positively related. Industry effects and monetary conditions effects varied. The conclusion is that firms can insulate themselves from the effects of monetary policy by relying on trade credit and retained earnings.Firms, Debt-Structure, Monetary Policy