A Bibliometric Review on Risk Management and Building Information Modeling for International Construction

International construction is complicated and involves high risks. However, with the development of technological innovation, Building Information Modeling (BIM) emerged and seems to be able to address certain risks. To understand BIM applications in risk management for international construction, a state-of-the-art review is required. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the research trends and opportunities for risk management in BIM-enabled international construction by reviewing 526 peer-reviewed journal articles for the years 2007-2017. Thus five steps of bibliometric analysis were conducted based on the proposed frameworks of BIM risk management in international construction (BIM-RM-INTL). The results show that the popularization of BIM not only attracts all stakeholders' interests but also brings some risks. For example, financial factors are hard to detect and control through BIM, information loss during transmission stands out, and BIM has no unified standards and regulations for international construction. The research has mapped existing research results and their relationships for future risk management in BIM-enabled international construction

Louisville Seamount Trail: implications for geodynamic mantle flow models and the geochemical evolution of primary hotspots

The Louisville Seamount Trail is a 4300 km long volcanic chain that has been built in the past 80 m.y. as the Pacific plate moved over a persistent mantle melting anomaly or hotspot. Because of its linear morphology and its long-lived age-progressive volcanism, Louisville is the South Pacific counterpart of the much better studied Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Trail. Together, Louisville and Hawaii are textbook examples of two primary hotspots that have been keystones in deciphering the motion of the Pacific plate relative to a set of "fixed" deep-mantle plumes. However, drilling during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 197 in the Emperor Seamounts documented a large ~15° southward motion of the Hawaiian hotspot prior to 50 Ma. Is it possible that the Hawaiian and Louisville hotspots moved in concert and thus constitute a moving reference frame for modeling plate motion in the Pacific? Alternatively, could they have moved independently, as predicted by mantle flow models that reproduce the observed latitudinal motion for Hawaii but that predict a largely longitudinal shift for the Louisville hotspot? These two end-member geodynamic models were tested during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 330 to the Louisville Seamount Trail. In addition, existing data from dredged lavas suggest that the mantle plume source of the Louisville hotspot has been remarkably homogeneous for as long as 80 m.y. These lavas are predominantly alkali basalts and likely represent a mostly alkalic shield-building stage, which is in sharp contrast to the massive tholeiitic shield-building stage of Hawaiian volcanoes. Geochemical and isotopic data for the recovered lavas during Expedition 330 will provide insights into the magmatic evolution and melting processes of individual Louisville volcanoes, their progression from shield-building to postshield and (maybe) posterosional stages, the temperature and depth of partial melting of their mantle plume source, and the enigmatic long-lived and apparent geochemical homogeneity of the Louisville mantle source. Collectively, this will enable us to characterize the Louisville Seamount Trail as a product of one of the few global primary hotspots, to better constrain its plume-lithosphere interactions, and to further test the hypothesis that the Ontong Java Plateau formed from the plume head of the Louisville mantle plume around 120 Ma. During Expedition 330 we replicated the drilling strategy of Leg 197, the first expedition to provide compelling evidence for the motion of the Hawaiian mantle plume between 80 and 50 Ma. For that reason we targeted Louisville seamounts that have ages similar to Detroit, Suiko, Nintoku, and Koko Seamounts in the Emperor Seamount Trail. In total, five seamounts were drilled in the Louisville Seamount Trail: Canopus, Rigil, Burton, Achernar, and Hadar Guyots (old to young). By analyzing a large number of time-independent in situ lava flows (and other volcanic eruptive products) from these seamounts using modern paleomagnetic, 40Ar/39Ar geochronological, and geochemical techniques, we will be able to directly compare the paleolatitude estimates and geochemical signatures between the two longest-lived hotspot systems in the Pacific Ocean. We drilled into the summits of the five Louisville guyots and reached volcanic basement at four of these drilling targets. In two cases we targeted larger seamount structures and drilled near the flanks of these ancient volcanoes, and in the other three cases we selected smaller edifices that we drilled closer to their centers. Drilling and logging plans for each of these sites were similar, with coring reaching 522.0 meters below seafloor (mbsf) for Site U1374 and 232.9, 65.7, 11.5, 182.8, and 53.3 mbsf for Sites U1372, U1373, U1375, U1376, and U1377, respectively. Some Expedition 330 drill sites were capped with only a thin layer of pelagic ooze between 6.6 and 13.5 m thick, and, if present, these were cored by using a low-rotation gravity-push technique with the rotary core barrel to maximize recovery. However, at Sites U1373 and U1376 no pelagic ooze was present, and the holes needed to be started directly into cobble-rich hardgrounds. In all cases, the bulk of the seamount sediment cover comprised sequences of volcanic sandstones and various kinds of basalt breccia or basalt conglomerate, which often were interspersed with basaltic lava flows, the spatter/tephra products of submarine eruptions, or other volcanic products, including auto-brecciated flows or peperites. Also several intervals of carbonate were cored, with the special occurrence of a ~15 m thick algal limestone reef at Site U1376 on Burton Guyot. In addition, some condensed pelagic limestone units were recovered on three of the other seamounts, but these did not exceed 30 cm in thickness. Despite their limited presence in the drilled sediment, these limestones provide valuable insights for the paleoclimate record at high ~50° southern latitudes since Mesozoic times. Several Louisville sites progressed from subaerial conditions in the top of volcanic basement into submarine eruptive environments, or drilling of the igneous basement immediately started in submarine volcanic sequences, as was the case for Sites U1376 and U1377 on Burton and Hadar Guyots. At three sites we cored >100 m into the igneous basement: 187.3 m at Site U1372, 505.3 m at Site U1374, and 140.9 m at Site U1376. At the other sites we did not core into basement (Site U1375) or we cored only 38.2 m (Site U1377) because of unstable hole conditions. Even so, drilling during Expedition 330 resulted in a large number of in situ lava flows, pillow basalts, or other types of volcanic products such as auto-brecciated lava flows, intrusive sheets or dikes, and peperites. In particular, the three holes on Canopus and Rigil Guyots (the two oldest seamounts drilled in the Louisville Seamount Trail), resulted in adequate numbers of in situ lava flows to average out paleosecular variation, with probable eruption ages estimated at ~78 and 73 Ma, respectively. Remarkably, at all drill sites large quantities of hyaloclastites, volcanic sandstones, and basaltic breccias were also recovered, which in many cases show consistent paleomagnetic inclinations compared to the lava flows bracketing these units. For Site U1374 on Rigil Guyot we also observed a magnetic polarity reversal in the cored sequence. Overall, this is very promising for determining a reliable paleolatitude record for the Louisville Seamounts following detailed postcruise examinations. The deeper penetrations of several hundred meters required bit changes and reentries using free-fall funnels. Basement penetration rates were 1.8–2.5 m/h depending on drill depth. In total, 1114 m of sediment and igneous basement at five seamounts was drilled, and 806 m was recovered (average recovery = 72.4%). At Site U1374 on Rigil Guyot, a total of 522 m was drilled, with a record-breaking 87.8% recovery. Most outstandingly, nearly all Expedition 330 core material is characterized by low degrees of alteration, providing us with a large quantity of samples of mostly well-preserved basalt, containing, for example, pristine olivine crystals with melt inclusions, fresh volcanic glass, unaltered plagioclase, carbonate, zeolite and celadonite alteration minerals, various micro- and macrofossils, and, in one case, mantle xenoliths and xenocrysts. The large quantity and excellent quality of the recovered sample material allow us to address all the scientific objectives of this expedition and beyond

IODP Expedition 330: Drilling the Louisville Seamount Trail in the SW Pacific

Deep-Earth convection can be understood by studying hotspot volcanoes that form where mantle plumes rise up and intersect the lithosphere, the Earth's rigid outer layer. Hotspots characteristically leave age-progressive trails of volcanoes and seamounts on top of oceanic lithosphere, which in turn allow us to decipher the motion of these plates relative to "fixed" deep-mantle plumes, and their (isotope) geochemistry provides insights into the long-term evolution of mantle source regions. However, it is strongly suggested that the Hawaiian mantle plume moved ~15° south between 80 and 50 million years ago. This raises a fundamental question about other hotspot systems in the Pacific, whether or not their mantle plumes experienced a similar amount and direction of motion. Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 330 to the Louisville Seamounts showed that the Louisville hotspot in the South Pacific behaved in a different manner, as its mantle plume remained more or less fixed around 48°S latitude during that same time period. Our findings demonstrate that the Pacific hotspots move independently and that their trajectories may be controlled by differences in subduction zone geometry. Additionally, shipboard geochemistry data shows that, in contrast to Hawaiian volcanoes, the construction of the Louisville Seamounts doesn’t involve a shield-building phase dominated by tholeiitic lavas, and trace elements confirm the rather homogenous nature of the Louisville mantle source. Both observations set Louisville apart from the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount trail, whereby the latter has been erupting abundant tholeiites (characteristically up to 95% in volume) and which exhibit a large variability in (isotope) geochemistry and their mantle source components

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mycobacterium abscessus-Induced Granuloma Formation Is Strictly Dependent on TNF Signaling and Neutrophil Trafficking

Mycobacterium abscessus is considered the most common respiratory pathogen among the rapidly growing non-tuberculous mycobacteria. Infections with M. abscessus are increasingly found in patients with chronic lung diseases, especially cystic fibrosis, and are often refractory to antibiotic therapy. M. abscessus has two morphotypes with distinct effects on host cells and biological responses. The smooth (S) variant is recognized as the initial airway colonizer while the rough (R) is known to be a potent inflammatory inducer associated with invasive disease, but the underlying immunopathological mechanisms of the infection remain unsolved. We conducted a comparative stepwise dissection of the inflammatory response in S and R pathogenesis by monitoring infected transparent zebrafish embryos. Loss of TNFR1 function resulted in increased mortality with both variants, and was associated with unrestricted intramacrophage bacterial growth and decreased bactericidal activity. The use of transgenic zebrafish lines harboring fluorescent macrophages and neutrophils revealed that neutrophils, like macrophages, interact with M. abscessus at the initial infection sites. Impaired TNF signaling disrupted the IL8-dependent neutrophil mobilization, and the defect in neutrophil trafficking led to the formation of aberrant granulomas, extensive mycobacterial cording, unrestricted bacterial growth and subsequent larval death. Our findings emphasize the central role of neutrophils for the establishment and maintenance of the protective M. abscessus granulomas. These results also suggest that the TNF/IL8 inflammatory axis is necessary for protective immunity against M. abscessus and may be of clinical relevance to explain why immunosuppressive TNF therapy leads to the exacerbation of M. abscessus infections

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation