1,619 research outputs found
The Forward Premium of Euro Interest Rates
We show that euro forward rates are biased predictors of future interest rates. A small part of this bias arises from unexpected changes in interest rates, while a larger part is explained by the forward premia, which are generally not time-varying. We estimate the the 3-month forward premia for different horizons using forecasts of yields obtained with the Diebold and Li (2006) approach, extended by the inclusion of macroeconomic variables. Confidence intervals for the estimates are computed using a novel bootstrap approach. When using German data for the period before 1999, we detect a break in the dynamic correlation between yield factors, implying that estimates of the euro forward premium using pre-euro data are biased. Although the forward premia of horizons up to 36 months are on average positive, their confidence intervals indicate that they are significantly equal to zero in some periods of time. They are also positively correlated with the ECB policy rate and with a measure of the market perception that future interest rates could be higher than expected.
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation.
Although many macroeconomic series such as US real output growth are sampled quarterly, many potentially useful predictors are observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a recently developed mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth and inflation. We carry out a number of related real-time forecast comparisons using various indicators as explanatory variables. We find that MIDAS model forecasts of output growth are more accurate at horizons less than one quarter using coincident indicators ; that MIDAS models are an effective way of combining information from multiple indicators ; and that the forecast accuracy of the unemployment-rate Phillips curve for inflation is enhanced using the MIDAS approach.Data frequency ; multiple predictors ; combination ; real-time forecasting
Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions
We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include au-toregressive terms by estimating the models on âlightly-revisedâdata instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the estimation of the model in such a way that the vintages used in estimation are of a similar maturity to the data in the forecast loss function. The size of the expected reductions in mean squared error depend on the characteristics of the data revision process. Empirically, we âŠnd RMSFE gains of 2-4% when forecasting output growth and inâĄation with AR models, and gains of the order of 8% with ADL models.real-time data ; news and noise revisions ; optimal forecasts ; multi-vintage models. JEL Classification: C53
First Announcements and Real Economic Activity
The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to the announcement, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. Initial estimates are subsequently subject to a number of rounds of revisions: the nature of these revisions is shown to be key in determining any apparent relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy.Announcements ; real activity ; data measurement ; revisions
Enfermagem forense
A Enfermagem Forense Ă© um domĂnio da prĂĄtica de enfermagem, que tem vindo a evidenciar-se em Portugal,
sendo reconhecida como competĂȘncia acrescida pela Ordem dos Enfermeiros. A enfermagem forense Ă© a
aplicação da ciĂȘncia forense Ă prĂĄtica clĂnica da enfermagem.
Assim, a prĂĄtica da enfermagem forense integra a utilização dos aspetos forenses aos cuidados de saĂșde,
integrando a educação biopsicossocial da enfermagem, na investigação cientĂfica e tratamento do trauma,
morte, violĂȘncia ou atividade criminosa, em contextos da comunidade clĂnica ou institucional.
Os doentes que sĂŁo assistidos (idosos ou crianças), podem ser vĂtimas de agressĂ”es sexuais, abusos e maustratos
inexplicĂĄveis, morte acidental, trauma, bem como de qualquer outra atividade criminosa. Segundo
Rochon (1999), o foco da enfermagem forense Ă© claramente definida e representa um Ășnico corpo de
conhecimento que nĂŁo encontramos no domĂnio da enfermagem geral
DemĂȘncia de alzheimer
A doença de Alzheimer Ă© considerada a demĂȘncia mais comum no ser humano, sendo caraterizada como um distĂșrbio
degenerativo do cĂ©rebro que leva Ă perda de memĂłria (Alzheimer's Association, 2010). A notĂcia de um diagnĂłstico de
demĂȘncia causa um intenso impacto na vida de pacientes e familiares. Os principais motivos referem-se Ă
impossibilidade de cura e à progressão por vezes råpida dos sintomas. São comumente evidenciadas reaçÔes
emocionais negativas envolvendo impotĂȘncia, medo e raiva alĂ©m de um profundo sentimento de injustiça. O processo
cuidativo a um doente de Alzheimer Ă© um processo complexo e exigente que envolve situaçÔes e experiĂȘncias
potencialmente responsĂĄveis por alteraçÔes na saĂșde e bem estar do cuidador informal. A prestação contĂnua destes
cuidados implica, frequentemente, alteraçÔes fĂsicas, psicolĂłgicas ou emocionais, sociais e financeiras capazes de
provocar sobrecarga no cuidador
ReflexÔes acerca da medicina anti envelhecimento
Encontram-se diversas ideias controversas que emergem da comunidade mĂ©dica e das ĂĄreas das ciĂȘncias sociais e humanas, com o
propĂłsito de julgarem as prĂĄticas da medicina anti envelhecimento como infundadas e anti Ă©ticas.
A medicina anti envelhecimento visa intervir no processo de envelhecimento humano biolĂłgico normal, tendo como objetivo
primordial: retardar, parar ou reverter o processo de envelhecimento humano biolĂłgico normal. Deste modo contrapĂ”e-se Ă
biogerontologia, que distingue entre o envelhecer como um fenĂłmeno natural e o papel do envelhecimento como fator de risco para
determinadas doenças. São utilizadas estratégias como: redução do stress oxidativo por meio de suplementos dietéticos e/ou
minerais e/ou vitamĂnicos; restrição calĂłrica e/ou uso de prĂ© ou probiĂłticos; reposição e/ou suplementação hormonal; fitoterĂĄpicos;
modulação hormonal e atividade fĂsica.
A qualidade do processo do envelhecimento depende muito do estilo de vida. Embora os genes nĂŁo se alterem Ă© possĂvel alterar a
forma como eles se expressam atravĂ©s de fatores nutricionais, redução de toxinas, exercĂcio fĂsico, suplementos e hormonas,
estratégias de coping para lidar com o stress e ansiedade. Os biomarcadores do processo do envelhecimento, como por exemplo, a
perda muscular, a detioração cardĂaca e dos vasos sanguĂneos, a diminuição no sistema imunitĂĄrio, o dĂ©fice na flexibilidade
articular, o aumento de processos inflamatĂłrios, o declĂnio da memĂłria, a diminuição na função sexual, ocorrem em velocidade
distinta nuns e noutros indivĂduos
Perception of nursing students face clinical supervision: literature review
Currently, without theoretical clinical training is not possible for the nursing student
adequately meet their clinical practices.In this regard, clinical supervision plays a
key role monitoring and development of the same. However,so that the student can
be supervised, requires evidence of nurse supervisor competence in this context. In
contemporary literature, this issue has been much debated, as the target of numerous
different scientific studies. Aim of the study was, understanding through a systematic
literature review, the opinion of the nursing students to face clinical supervision. We
used the PICO methodology, have consulted the databases Scielo, Google Scholar as
well as E-books researching articles related keywords (i) "Clinical supervision"; (ii) 'nursing
students'; (iii) "the students' opinion"; (iv) "Clinical instruction". Resulted eleven
articles, of which only six were selected due to the inclusion criteria: opinion only of
nursing students and the time period of the articles between 2007-2014. After analyzing
the articles, found that all yielded similar results, except one, reveals that lack of
communication or poor communication was the most negative factor pointed out by
the students in relation to the nurse supervisor, following the monitoring batch (due to
lack of willingness of guiding nurses) and the lack of guidelines or improper orientatio
La conexiĂłn de ejercicio fĂsico y la calidad de vida de las personas mayores
La inactividad fĂsica ha sido reportado como un factor determinante de daño crĂtico a la calidad de vida en la vejez. La prĂĄtica de actividad fĂsica regular como un componente esencial de una buena calidad de vida
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