1,619 research outputs found

    The Forward Premium of Euro Interest Rates

    Get PDF
    We show that euro forward rates are biased predictors of future interest rates. A small part of this bias arises from unexpected changes in interest rates, while a larger part is explained by the forward premia, which are generally not time-varying. We estimate the the 3-month forward premia for different horizons using forecasts of yields obtained with the Diebold and Li (2006) approach, extended by the inclusion of macroeconomic variables. Confidence intervals for the estimates are computed using a novel bootstrap approach. When using German data for the period before 1999, we detect a break in the dynamic correlation between yield factors, implying that estimates of the euro forward premium using pre-euro data are biased. Although the forward premia of horizons up to 36 months are on average positive, their confidence intervals indicate that they are significantly equal to zero in some periods of time. They are also positively correlated with the ECB policy rate and with a measure of the market perception that future interest rates could be higher than expected.

    Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation.

    Get PDF
    Although many macroeconomic series such as US real output growth are sampled quarterly, many potentially useful predictors are observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a recently developed mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth and inflation. We carry out a number of related real-time forecast comparisons using various indicators as explanatory variables. We find that MIDAS model forecasts of output growth are more accurate at horizons less than one quarter using coincident indicators ; that MIDAS models are an effective way of combining information from multiple indicators ; and that the forecast accuracy of the unemployment-rate Phillips curve for inflation is enhanced using the MIDAS approach.Data frequency ; multiple predictors ; combination ; real-time forecasting

    Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions

    Get PDF
    We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include au-toregressive terms by estimating the models on ‘lightly-revised’data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the estimation of the model in such a way that the vintages used in estimation are of a similar maturity to the data in the forecast loss function. The size of the expected reductions in mean squared error depend on the characteristics of the data revision process. Empirically, we 
nd RMSFE gains of 2-4% when forecasting output growth and in‡ation with AR models, and gains of the order of 8% with ADL models.real-time data ; news and noise revisions ; optimal forecasts ; multi-vintage models. JEL Classification: C53

    First Announcements and Real Economic Activity

    Get PDF
    The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to the announcement, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. Initial estimates are subsequently subject to a number of rounds of revisions: the nature of these revisions is shown to be key in determining any apparent relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy.Announcements ; real activity ; data measurement ; revisions

    Enfermagem forense

    Get PDF
    A Enfermagem Forense Ă© um domĂ­nio da prĂĄtica de enfermagem, que tem vindo a evidenciar-se em Portugal, sendo reconhecida como competĂȘncia acrescida pela Ordem dos Enfermeiros. A enfermagem forense Ă© a aplicação da ciĂȘncia forense Ă  prĂĄtica clĂ­nica da enfermagem. Assim, a prĂĄtica da enfermagem forense integra a utilização dos aspetos forenses aos cuidados de saĂșde, integrando a educação biopsicossocial da enfermagem, na investigação cientĂ­fica e tratamento do trauma, morte, violĂȘncia ou atividade criminosa, em contextos da comunidade clĂ­nica ou institucional. Os doentes que sĂŁo assistidos (idosos ou crianças), podem ser vĂ­timas de agressĂ”es sexuais, abusos e maustratos inexplicĂĄveis, morte acidental, trauma, bem como de qualquer outra atividade criminosa. Segundo Rochon (1999), o foco da enfermagem forense Ă© claramente definida e representa um Ășnico corpo de conhecimento que nĂŁo encontramos no domĂ­nio da enfermagem geral

    DemĂȘncia de alzheimer

    Get PDF
    A doença de Alzheimer Ă© considerada a demĂȘncia mais comum no ser humano, sendo caraterizada como um distĂșrbio degenerativo do cĂ©rebro que leva Ă  perda de memĂłria (Alzheimer's Association, 2010). A notĂ­cia de um diagnĂłstico de demĂȘncia causa um intenso impacto na vida de pacientes e familiares. Os principais motivos referem-se Ă  impossibilidade de cura e Ă  progressĂŁo por vezes rĂĄpida dos sintomas. SĂŁo comumente evidenciadas reaçÔes emocionais negativas envolvendo impotĂȘncia, medo e raiva alĂ©m de um profundo sentimento de injustiça. O processo cuidativo a um doente de Alzheimer Ă© um processo complexo e exigente que envolve situaçÔes e experiĂȘncias potencialmente responsĂĄveis por alteraçÔes na saĂșde e bem estar do cuidador informal. A prestação contĂ­nua destes cuidados implica, frequentemente, alteraçÔes fĂ­sicas, psicolĂłgicas ou emocionais, sociais e financeiras capazes de provocar sobrecarga no cuidador

    ReflexÔes acerca da medicina anti envelhecimento

    Get PDF
    Encontram-se diversas ideias controversas que emergem da comunidade mĂ©dica e das ĂĄreas das ciĂȘncias sociais e humanas, com o propĂłsito de julgarem as prĂĄticas da medicina anti envelhecimento como infundadas e anti Ă©ticas. A medicina anti envelhecimento visa intervir no processo de envelhecimento humano biolĂłgico normal, tendo como objetivo primordial: retardar, parar ou reverter o processo de envelhecimento humano biolĂłgico normal. Deste modo contrapĂ”e-se Ă  biogerontologia, que distingue entre o envelhecer como um fenĂłmeno natural e o papel do envelhecimento como fator de risco para determinadas doenças. SĂŁo utilizadas estratĂ©gias como: redução do stress oxidativo por meio de suplementos dietĂ©ticos e/ou minerais e/ou vitamĂ­nicos; restrição calĂłrica e/ou uso de prĂ© ou probiĂłticos; reposição e/ou suplementação hormonal; fitoterĂĄpicos; modulação hormonal e atividade fĂ­sica. A qualidade do processo do envelhecimento depende muito do estilo de vida. Embora os genes nĂŁo se alterem Ă© possĂ­vel alterar a forma como eles se expressam atravĂ©s de fatores nutricionais, redução de toxinas, exercĂ­cio fĂ­sico, suplementos e hormonas, estratĂ©gias de coping para lidar com o stress e ansiedade. Os biomarcadores do processo do envelhecimento, como por exemplo, a perda muscular, a detioração cardĂ­aca e dos vasos sanguĂ­neos, a diminuição no sistema imunitĂĄrio, o dĂ©fice na flexibilidade articular, o aumento de processos inflamatĂłrios, o declĂ­nio da memĂłria, a diminuição na função sexual, ocorrem em velocidade distinta nuns e noutros indivĂ­duos

    Perception of nursing students face clinical supervision: literature review

    Get PDF
    Currently, without theoretical clinical training is not possible for the nursing student adequately meet their clinical practices.In this regard, clinical supervision plays a key role monitoring and development of the same. However,so that the student can be supervised, requires evidence of nurse supervisor competence in this context. In contemporary literature, this issue has been much debated, as the target of numerous different scientific studies. Aim of the study was, understanding through a systematic literature review, the opinion of the nursing students to face clinical supervision. We used the PICO methodology, have consulted the databases Scielo, Google Scholar as well as E-books researching articles related keywords (i) "Clinical supervision"; (ii) 'nursing students'; (iii) "the students' opinion"; (iv) "Clinical instruction". Resulted eleven articles, of which only six were selected due to the inclusion criteria: opinion only of nursing students and the time period of the articles between 2007-2014. After analyzing the articles, found that all yielded similar results, except one, reveals that lack of communication or poor communication was the most negative factor pointed out by the students in relation to the nurse supervisor, following the monitoring batch (due to lack of willingness of guiding nurses) and the lack of guidelines or improper orientatio

    La conexiĂłn de ejercicio fĂ­sico y la calidad de vida de las personas mayores

    Get PDF
    La inactividad física ha sido reportado como un factor determinante de daño crítico a la calidad de vida en la vejez. La pråtica de actividad física regular como un componente esencial de una buena calidad de vida
    • 

    corecore