A proposed new generation of evidence-based microsimulation models to inform global control of cervical cancer

Health decision models are the only available tools designed to consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and the estimated long-term impact of preventive interventions. Yet health decision modeling results are often considered a lesser form of scientific evidence due to the inherent needs to rely on imperfect data and make numerous assumptions and extrapolations regarding complex processes. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses due to their subjectivity and lack of reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of subsequent transition probabilities. We posit that the new model health states (normal, carcinogenic HPV infection, precancer, cancer) and corollary transitions are universal, but that the probabilities of transitioning between states may vary by population. Evidence for this variability in host response to HPV infections can be inferred from HPV prevalence patterns in different regions across the lifespan, and might be linked to different average population levels of immunologic control of HPV infections. By prioritizing direct estimation of model transition probabilities from longitudinal data (and limiting reliance on model-fitting techniques that may propagate error when applied to multiple transitions), we aim to reduce the number of assumptions for greater transparency and reliability. We propose this new microsimulation model for critique and discussion, hoping to contribute to models that maximally inform efficient strategies towards global cervical cancer elimination

A population-based cross-sectional study of age-specific risk factors for high risk human papillomavirus prevalence in rural Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cervical cancer, caused by persistent infection with carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), is particularly prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with a high mortality rate. Some studies in West Africa, including our own, have found unusually high HR-HPV across all ages with a slight peak in older women. This increased prevalence at older ages may complicate screen-and-treat programs, which are implemented in regions where HPV prevalence declines with age and typically target women between 30-49 years. A better understanding of the determinants of high HR-HPV prevalence at older ages is needed. The goal of this study is to explore risk factors for HR-HPV prevalence by age among women in our population-based study in Irun, a rural town in southwestern Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>1,420 women were administered a clinic-based questionnaire regarding sexual and reproductive behavior, marital status (including co-wives), and malaria exposure. Logistic regression compared questionnaire responses and PCR positivity for a set of 13 carcinogenic HR-HPV types. Results were stratified by age (15-29, 30-45, 46-55, and 56+ years).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Birth control use and age at first pregnancy were associated with HR-HPV (<it>p-value </it>= 0.03 and 0.05, respectively). Early age at sexual debut and multiple sex partners were risks for HR-HPV, but did not reach significance (<it>p-value </it>= 0.1 and 0.07, respectively). Neither self-reported malaria nor presence of co-wives in the household was associated with HR-HPV (<it>p-value </it>= 0.85 and 0.24, respectively). In age sub-categories, early age at sexual debut was a significant risk factor for HR-HPV among women 35-45 years (<it>p-value = 0.02</it>). Early age at first pregnancy remained a significant risk factor for women aged 56+ years (<it>p-value </it>= 0.04). Greater than 2 sex partners and use of birth control were associated (though not significantly) with HR-HPV in women aged 30-45 (<it>p-value </it>= 0.08, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this high-risk region with elevated HR-HPV prevalence at older ages, we confirmed previously described, behavioral determinants of HR-HPV. There was no association with self-reported malaria or co-wives, which we had hypothesized might correlate with HR-HPV at older ages.</p

Factors affecting attendance to cervical cancer screening among women in the Paracentral Region of El Salvador: a nested study within the CAPE HPV screening program

Background\ud Cervical cancer is the third most commonly occurring cancer among women and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in women worldwide, with more than 85 % of these cases occurring in developing countries. These global disparities reflect the differences in cervical cancer screening rates between high-income and medium- and low-income countries. At 19 %, El Salvador has the lowest reported screening coverage of all Latin American countries. The purpose of this study is to identify factors affecting public sector HPV DNA-based cervical cancer screening participation in El Salvador.\ud \ud Methods\ud This study was nested within a public sector screening program where health promoters used door-to-door outreach to recruit women aged 30–49 years to attend educational sessions about HPV screening. A subgroup of these participants was chosen randomly and questioned about demographic factors, healthcare utilization, previous cervical cancer screening, and HPV knowledge. Women then scheduled screening appointments at their public health clinics. Screening participants were adherent if they attended their scheduled appointment or rescheduled and were screened within 6 months. The association between non-adherence and demographic variables, medical history, history of cancer, sexual history, birth control methods, and screening barriers was assessed using Chi-square tests of significance and logistic regression.\ud \ud Results\ud All women (n = 409) enrolled in the study scheduled HPV screening appointments, and 88 % attended. Non-adherence was associated with a higher number of lifetime partners and being under-screened—defined as not having participated in cervical cancer screening within the previous 3 years (p = 0.03 and p = 0.04, respectively); 22.8 % of participants in this study were under-screened.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud Adherence to cervical cancer screening after educational sessions was higher than expected, in part due to interactions with the community-based health promoters as well as the educational session itself. More effective recruitment methods targeted toward under-screened women are required

Larval Transport Modeling of Deep-Sea Invertebrates Can Aid the Search for Undiscovered Populations

Background: Many deep-sea benthic animals occur in patchy distributions separated by thousands of kilometres, yet because deep-sea habitats are remote, little is known about their larval dispersal. Our novel method simulates dispersal by combining data from the Argo array of autonomous oceanographic probes, deep-sea ecological surveys, and comparative invertebrate physiology. The predicted particle tracks allow quantitative, testable predictions about the dispersal of benthic invertebrate larvae in the south-west Pacific. Principal Findings: In a test case presented here, using non-feeding, non-swimming (lecithotrophic trochophore) larvae of polyplacophoran molluscs (chitons), we show that the likely dispersal pathways in a single generation are significantly shorter than the distances between the three known population centres in our study region. The large-scale density of chiton populations throughout our study region is potentially much greater than present survey data suggest, with intermediate 'stepping stone' populations yet to be discovered. Conclusions/Significance: We present a new method that is broadly applicable to studies of the dispersal of deep-sea organisms. This test case demonstrates the power and potential applications of our new method, in generating quantitative, testable hypotheses at multiple levels to solve the mismatch between observed and expected distributions: probabilistic predictions of locations of intermediate populations, potential alternative dispersal mechanisms, and expected population genetic structure. The global Argo data have never previously been used to address benthic biology, and our method can be applied to any non-swimming larvae of the deep-sea, giving information upon dispersal corridors and population densities in habitats that remain intrinsically difficult to assess.Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and TechnologyScience Foundation Irelan

A global experiment on motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment (n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one’s core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people’s existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Development and validation of HERWIG 7 tunes from CMS underlying-event measurements

This paper presents new sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event model of the HERWIG7 event generator. These parameters control the description of multiple-parton interactions (MPI) and colour reconnection in HERWIG7, and are obtained from a fit to minimum-bias data collected by the CMS experiment at s=0.9, 7, and 13Te. The tunes are based on the NNPDF 3.1 next-to-next-to-leading-order parton distribution function (PDF) set for the parton shower, and either a leading-order or next-to-next-to-leading-order PDF set for the simulation of MPI and the beam remnants. Predictions utilizing the tunes are produced for event shape observables in electron-positron collisions, and for minimum-bias, inclusive jet, top quark pair, and Z and W boson events in proton-proton collisions, and are compared with data. Each of the new tunes describes the data at a reasonable level, and the tunes using a leading-order PDF for the simulation of MPI provide the best description of the dat

Measurement of the top quark forward-backward production asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric and chromomagnetic moments in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Abstract The parton-level top quark (t) forward-backward asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric (d̂ t) and chromomagnetic (μ̂ t) moments have been measured using LHC pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected in the CMS detector in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The linearized variable AFB(1) is used to approximate the asymmetry. Candidate t t ¯ events decaying to a muon or electron and jets in final states with low and high Lorentz boosts are selected and reconstructed using a fit of the kinematic distributions of the decay products to those expected for t t ¯ final states. The values found for the parameters are AFB(1)=0.048−0.087+0.095(stat)−0.029+0.020(syst),μ̂t=−0.024−0.009+0.013(stat)−0.011+0.016(syst), and a limit is placed on the magnitude of | d̂ t| &lt; 0.03 at 95% confidence level. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Measurement of t(t)over-bar normalised multi-differential cross sections in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV, and simultaneous determination of the strong coupling strength, top quark pole mass, and parton distribution functions

Peer reviewe