How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a `Calvo-type' rule

We estimate an alternative type of monetary policy rule, termed Calvo rule, according to which the central bank is assumed to target a discounted in?nite sum of future expected in?ation. Compared to conventional in?ation forecast-based rules, which are typically of the Taylor-type with discrete forward looking horizons, this class of rule is less prone to the problem of indeterminacy. Parameter estimates obtained from GMM estimation provide support for Calvo-type rules, suggesting that the Federal Reserve targeted a mean forward horizon of between 4 and 8 quarters.Calvo-type interest rules; In?ation Forecast Based rules; GMM; Indeterminacy.

How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a ‘Calvo-type’ rule

We estimate an alternative type of monetary policy rule, termed Calvo rule, according to which the central bank is assumed to target a discounted infinite sum of future expected inflation. Compared to conventional inflation forecast-based rules, which are typically of the Taylor-type with discrete forward looking horizons, this class of rule is less prone to the problem of indeterminacy. Parameter estimates obtained from GMM estimation provide support for Calvo-type rules, suggesting that the Federal Reserve targeted a mean forward horizon of between 4 and 8 quarters.Calvo-type interest rules, Inflation Forecast Based rules, GMM, indeterminacy.

Effectiveness of Windrow Composting Methodology in Killing a Thermo-Tolerant Species of Salmonella During Mortality Composting

In a large agricultural operation, such as the one at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, disposal of deceased animals is an immense issue. The cost of transporting and rendering every dead animal is inhibitory to the general function of the agricultural operations and their thin budget. Therefore, we propose that composting mortalities could be an economical alternative. Composting is a recognized method for taking animal waste products along with carbon waste and turning it into a pathogen-free, nutrient-rich topsoil. Carcass composting is in fact performed in other countries and states to varying degrees of success. However, the California EPA limits carcass composing to only private land. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to determine the efficacy of killing pathogens by composting using bench top composting models. Ultimately, our goal is to provide “proof of concept” data in order to gain permission for a full-scale carcass compost pile to be set up at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. Using thermo tolerant Salmonella senftenberg as an indicator organism, we performed bench top trials of traditional and carcass compost in the lab. Samples were inoculated with S. senftenberg and kept at 55°C for 15 days in accordance with the California EPA and Test Method for the Examination of Composting and Compost (TMECC). Samples were then plated and processed for multiple tube analysis and most probable number. Samples were also partitioned for a viability qPCR with propidium monoazide (PMA) to compare to the classic techniques. Using these methods we were then able to track and produce thermal death time data for S. senftenberg in both traditional and carcass compost. By comparing the types of compost, we were able to determine that the composting method presented by the California EPA and the TMECC produces safe, pathogen free compost, even when inoculated carcasses were introduced. However, even with removal of dead cells by PMA, qPCR did not outperform the classical microbiological methods for as tracking pathogen killing

On the (ir)relevance of direct supply-side effects of monetary policy

The relevance of direct supply-side effects of monetary policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model is studied. We extend a model with several nominal and real frictions by introducing a cost channel of monetary transmission and allowing for non-separability of money and consumption in the utility of the representative household. These fea- tures have important theoretical consequences for the output-inflation trade-off and indeterminacy of interest rate rules. The empirical evidence for these effects are then examined using a Bayesian maximum likelihood framework complemented with GMM single-equation estimation. Both estimation strategies point to weak evidence for the cost channel and non-separable utility.New Keynesian model, Bayesian maximum likelihood estimation, GMM, non-separable utility, cost channel.

Health and well-being in small island communities: a cross-sectional study in the Solomon Islands

[Objectives] This study explored the health problems of inhabitants of small South Pacific Islands under the influence of climate change, focusing on three communities in the Solomon Islands. [Design] Cross-sectional study of the Solomon Islands’ populations. [Setting] A field survey was conducted in Taro Island, a small, urbanised island with a whole-community relocation plan; Manuopo community of Reef Islands, a small remote island on an atoll environment and Sasamungga, an intermediately urbanised community on a larger island. The Sasamungga community was used for comparison. [Participants] Each community’s participants were recruited through local health authorities, and 113, 155 and 116 adults (aged 18+ years) from Taro, Manuopo and Sasamungga, respectively, participated voluntarily. [Methods] Each participant’s body height, weight and body mass index were measured. A drop of blood was sampled for malaria testing; glycated haemoglobin and C reactive protein levels, measured from another drop of blood, were markers for diabetes and inflammation, respectively. The Primary Care Screening Questionnaire for Depression measured depressive mental states. [Primary and secondary outcome measures] Regarding health status, the dependent variables --communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases and mental state --and independent variables-- differences in communities and socioeconomic status—were measured through health check-ups and interviews of individual participants. [Results] Taro Island inhabitants had a higher risk of obesity (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.27, p=0.0189), and Manuopo inhabitants had a higher risk of depression (1.25, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.44, p=0.0026) than Sasamungga inhabitants. Manuopo inhabitants recognised more serious problems of food security, livelihood, place to live and other aspects of daily living than other communities’ inhabitants. [Conclusions] The three small island communities’ observation identified different health problems: the urbanised community and remote community had a high risk of non-communicable diseases and mental disorders, respectively. These health problems should be monitored continuously during future climate-related changes

Cost Estimates for the KPipe Experiment

We present estimates for the cost of the KPipe experiment. Excluding the cost of civil engineering, the total cost comes to 4.6 million USD. This report supports statements in arXiv article 1506.05811