Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic Ocean is considered to be one of the most important components of the climate system. This is because its warm surface currents, such as the Gulf Stream, redistribute huge amounts of energy from tropical to high latitudes and influence regional weather and climate patterns, whereas its lower limb ventilates the deep ocean and affects the storage of carbon in the abyss, away from the atmosphere. Despite its significance for future climate, the operation of the MOC under contrasting climates of the past remains controversial. Nutrient-based proxies1, 2 and recent model simulations3 indicate that during the Last Glacial Maximum the convective activity in the North Atlantic Ocean was much weaker than at present. In contrast, rate-sensitive radiogenic 231Pa/230Th isotope ratios from the North Atlantic have been interpreted to indicate only minor changes in MOC strength4, 5, 6. Here we show that the basin-scale abyssal circulation of the Atlantic Ocean was probably reversed during the Last Glacial Maximum and was dominated by northward water flow from the Southern Ocean. These conclusions are based on new high-resolution data from the South Atlantic Ocean that establish the basin-scale north to south gradient in 231Pa/230Th, and thus the direction of the deep ocean circulation. Our findings are consistent with nutrient-based proxies and argue that further analysis of 231Pa/230Th outside the North Atlantic basin will enhance our understanding of past ocean circulation, provided that spatial gradients are carefully considered. This broader perspective suggests that the modern pattern of the Atlantic MOC—with a prominent southerly flow of deep waters originating in the North Atlantic—arose only during the Holocene epoch

Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1–5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance

Country-specific birth weight and length in type 1 diabetes high-risk HLA genotypes in combination with prenatal characteristics

Objective:To examine the relationship between high-risk human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes for type 1 diabetes and birth size in combination with prenatal characteristics in different countries.Study Design:Four high-risk HLA genotypes were enrolled in the Environmental determinants of Diabetes in the Young study newborn babies from the general population in Finland, Germany, Sweden and the United States. Stepwise regression analyses were used to adjust for country, parental physical characteristics and environmental factors during pregnancy.Result:Regression analyses did not reveal differences in birth size between the four type 1 diabetes high-risk HLA genotypes. Compared with DQ 4/8 in each country, (1) DQ 2/2 children were heavier in the United States (P=0.028) mostly explained however, by parental weight; (2) DQ 2/8 (P=0.023) and DQ 8/8 (P=0.046) children were longer in Sweden independent of parents height and as well as (3) in the United States for DQ 2/8 (P=0.023), but again dependent on parental height.Conclusion:Children born with type 1 diabetes high-risk HLA genotypes have comparable birth size. Longitudinal follow-up of these children should reveal whether birth size differences between countries contribute to the risk for islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes.Journal of Perinatology advance online publication, 28 April 2011; doi:10.1038/jp.2011.26

A Role for Cytoplasmic PML in Cellular Resistance to Viral Infection

PML gene was discovered as a fusion partner with retinoic acid receptor (RAR) α in the t(15:17) chromosomal translocation associated with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). Nuclear PML protein has been implicated in cell growth, tumor suppression, apoptosis, transcriptional regulation, chromatin remodeling, DNA repair, and anti-viral defense. The localization pattern of promyelocytic leukemia (PML) protein is drastically altered during viral infection. This alteration is traditionally viewed as a viral strategy to promote viral replication. Although multiple PML splice variants exist, we demonstrate that the ratio of a subset of cytoplasmic PML isoforms lacking exons 5 & 6 is enriched in cells exposed to herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV-1). In particular, we demonstrate that a PML isoform lacking exons 5 & 6, called PML Ib, mediates the intrinsic cellular defense against HSV-1 via the cytoplasmic sequestration of the infected cell protein (ICP) 0 of HSV-1. The results herein highlight the importance of cytoplasmic PML and call for an alternative, although not necessarily exclusive, interpretation regarding the redistribution of PML that is seen in virally infected cells

Deep-Inelastic Inclusive ep Scattering at Low x and a Determination of alpha_s

A precise measurement of the inclusive deep-inelastic e^+p scattering cross section is reported in the kinematic range 1.5<= Q^2 <=150 GeV^2 and 3*10^(-5)<= x <=0.2. The data were recorded with the H1 detector at HERA in 1996 and 1997, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20 pb^(-1). The double differential cross section, from which the proton structure function F_2(x,Q^2) and the longitudinal structure function F_L(x,Q^2) are extracted, is measured with typically 1% statistical and 3% systematic uncertainties. The measured partial derivative (dF_2(x,Q^2)/dln Q^2)_x is observed to rise continuously towards small x for fixed Q^2. The cross section data are combined with published H1 measurements at high Q^2 for a next-to-leading order DGLAP QCD analysis.The H1 data determine the gluon momentum distribution in the range 3*10^(-4)<= x <=0.1 to within an experimental accuracy of about 3% for Q^2 =20 GeV^2. A fit of the H1 measurements and the mu p data of the BCDMS collaboration allows the strong coupling constant alpha_s and the gluon distribution to be simultaneously determined. A value of alpha _s(M_Z^2)=0.1150+-0.0017 (exp) +0.0009-0.0005 (model) is obtained in NLO, with an additional theoretical uncertainty of about +-0.005, mainly due to the uncertainty of the renormalisation scale.Comment: 68 pages, 24 figures and 18 table

Fetal Programming of Adult Glucose Homeostasis in Mice

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that dietary soy and phytoestrogens can have beneficial effects on lipid and glucose metabolism. We have previously shown that male mice fed from conception to adulthood with a high soy-containing diet had reduced body weight, adiposity and a decrease in glucose intolerance, an early marker of insulin resistance and diabetes. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to identify the precise periods of exposure during which phytoestrogens and dietary soy improve lipid and glucose metabolism. Since intrauterine position (IUP) has been shown to alter sensitivity to endocrine disruptors, we also investigated whether the combination of IUP and fetal exposure to dietary phytoestrogens could potentially affect adult metabolic parameters. METHODS: Male outbred mice (CD-1) were allowed ad libitum access to either a high soy-containing diet or a soy-free diet either during gestation, lactation or after weaning. Adiposity and bone mass density was assessed by dual x-ray absorptiometry. Glucose tolerance was assessed by a glucose tolerance test. Blood pressure was examined by the tail-cuff system. RESULTS: Here we show that metabolic improvements are dependent on precise windows of exposure during life. The beneficial effects of dietary soy and phytoestrogens on adiposity were apparent only in animals fed post-natally, while the improvements in glucose tolerance are restricted to animals with fetal exposure to soy. Interestingly, we observed that IUP influenced adult glucose tolerance, but not adiposity. Similar IUP trends were observed for other estrogen-related metabolic parameters such as blood pressure and bone mass density. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that IUP and fetal exposure to estrogenic environmental disrupting compounds, such as dietary phytoestrogens, could alter metabolic and cardiovascular parameters in adult individuals independently of adipose gain