Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustments, extrapolating, assessing uncertainty, and identifying when to use extrapolation. The principles are based on received wisdom (i.e., experts’ commonly held opinions) and on empirical studies. Some of the more important principles are:• In selecting and preparing data, use all relevant data and adjust the data for important events that occurred in the past.• Make seasonal adjustments only when seasonal effects are expected and only if there is good evidence by which to measure them.• In extrapolating, use simple functional forms. Weight the most recent data heavily if there are small measurement errors, stable series, and short forecast horizons. Domain knowledge and forecasting expertise can help to select effective extrapolation procedures. When there is uncertainty, be conservative in forecasting trends. Update extrapolation models as new data are received.• To assess uncertainty, make empirical estimates to establish prediction intervals.• Use pure extrapolation when many forecasts are required, little is known about the situation, the situation is stable, and expert forecasts might be biased

A polymorphism for phosphate uptake/arsenate tolerance in Holcus lanatus L.: is there a correlation with edaphic or environmental factors?

Arsenate tolerance in Holcus lanatus L. is achieved by suppression of the high affinity phosphate uptake system. Tolerant plants are found at high frequency on noncontaminated soils. The selective agents acting to maintain this polymorphism are not understood. Work on the Park Grass Experiment and a nationwide survey revealed no significant correlation between the frequency of tolerant individuals and environmental or edaphic characteristics of the site. The results are interpreted in light of the low availability of phosphate in soil solution

Gender and Ethnicity Differences in HIV-related Stigma Experienced by People Living with HIV in Ontario, Canada

This study aimed to understand gender and ethnicity differences in HIV-related stigma experienced by 1026 HIV-positive individuals living in Ontario, Canada that were enrolled in the OHTN Cohort Study. Total and subscale HIV-related stigma scores were measured using the revised HIV-related Stigma Scale. Correlates of total stigma scores were assessed in univariate and multivariate linear regression. Women had significantly higher total and subscale stigma scores than men (total, median = 56.0 vs. 48.0, p<0.0001). Among men and women, Black individuals had the highest, Aboriginal and Asian/Latin-American/Unspecified people intermediate, and White individuals the lowest total stigma scores. The gender-ethnicity interaction term was significant in multivariate analysis: Black women and Asian/Latin-American/Unspecified men reported the highest HIV-related stigma scores. Gender and ethnicity differences in HIV-related stigma were identified in our cohort. Findings suggest differing approaches may be required to address HIV-related stigma based on gender and ethnicity; and such strategies should challenge racist and sexist stereotypes

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic

Aim This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Method This was an international cohort study of patients undergoing elective resection of colon or rectal cancer without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Centres entered data from their first recorded case of COVID-19 until 19 April 2020. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included anastomotic leak, postoperative SARS-CoV-2 and a comparison with prepandemic European Society of Coloproctology cohort data. Results From 2073 patients in 40 countries, 1.3% (27/2073) had a defunctioning stoma and 3.0% (63/2073) had an end stoma instead of an anastomosis only. Thirty-day mortality was 1.8% (38/2073), the incidence of postoperative SARS-CoV-2 was 3.8% (78/2073) and the anastomotic leak rate was 4.9% (86/1738). Mortality was lowest in patients without a leak or SARS-CoV-2 (14/1601, 0.9%) and highest in patients with both a leak and SARS-CoV-2 (5/13, 38.5%). Mortality was independently associated with anastomotic leak (adjusted odds ratio 6.01, 95% confidence interval 2.58–14.06), postoperative SARS-CoV-2 (16.90, 7.86–36.38), male sex (2.46, 1.01–5.93), age >70 years (2.87, 1.32–6.20) and advanced cancer stage (3.43, 1.16–10.21). Compared with prepandemic data, there were fewer anastomotic leaks (4.9% versus 7.7%) and an overall shorter length of stay (6 versus 7 days) but higher mortality (1.7% versus 1.1%). Conclusion Surgeons need to further mitigate against both SARS-CoV-2 and anastomotic leak when offering surgery during current and future COVID-19 waves based on patient, operative and organizational risks