Stock assessment of the Australian east coast sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) fishery 2018

The sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) is found in tropical and subtropical waters around the world. On the east coast of Australia, sea mullet are harvested from a single continous stock which occurs from Baffle Creek in Queensland to Eden in New South Wales. Sea mullet undertake annual migrations along ocean beaches to spawn that make them susceptible to overfishing. This stock assessment covers the Australian east coast and incorporates Queensland and NSW catch data up to 2016. The vast majority of the harvest is taken in the commercial fishery, with the catch in NSW exceeding the Queensland catch (approximately 65% and 35% of the catch respectively). The current assessment combined data in an annual age-structured population model tailored for the biology, management and fishing history of sea mullet and estimates the sea mullet biomass in 2016 is around 50 per cent of unfished exploitable biomass (all sectors and jurisdictions). Biological information for sea mullet has revealed a cyclic pattern of new fish recruitment over years. This has produced a cyclic fluctuation in the exploitable biomass results with a midpoint at around 50% of virgin levels which is trending downward. The final year of the model occurs during a downward phase in a long term cycle of biomass peaks and troughs and fishing could exacerbate this downward biomass trend. The assessment noted that the Bundaberg to Noosa stock range was experiencing below average harvests. Further assessment of the extent of regional decline will increase our understanding of the relationshop between historical levels of fishing and environmental change. The assessment provides estimates of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and recommends a total allowable catch to rebuild the stock to the Sustainable Fisheries Strategy (SFS) longer term target of 60% unfished biomass (as a proxy for MEY) by 2027

State of the world’s plants and fungi 2020

Kew’s State of the World’s Plants and Fungi project provides assessments of our current knowledge of the diversity of plants and fungi on Earth, the global threats that they face, and the policies to safeguard them. Produced in conjunction with an international scientific symposium, Kew’s State of the World’s Plants and Fungi sets an important international standard from which we can annually track trends in the global status of plant and fungal diversity

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy