The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Covid-19 has predominantly affected mortality at high ages. It kills by inflaming and clogging the air sacs in the lungs, depriving the body of oxygen ‒ inducing hypoxia ‒ which closes down essential organs, in particular the heart, kidneys and liver, and causes blood clots (which can lead to stroke or pulmonary embolism) and neurological malfunction. Evidence from different countries points to the fact that people who die from Covid-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. This is true for England & Wales – the two countries we focus on in this study. The implication is that the years of life lost through early death are less than the average for each age group, with how much less being a source of considerable debate. We argue that many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. We demonstrate how to capture this link to poorer-than-average health using a model in which individual deaths are ‘accelerated’ ahead of schedule due to Covid-19. The model structure and its parameterization build on the observation that Covid-19 mortality by age is approximately proportional to all-cause mortality. This, in combination with current predictions of total deaths, results in the important conclusion that, everything else being equal, the impact of Covid-19 on the mortality rates of the surviving population will be very modest. Specifically, the degree of anti-selection is likely to be very small, since the life expectancy of survivors does not increase by a significant amount over pre-pandemic levels. We also analyze the degree to which Covid-19 mortality varies with socio-economic status. Headline statistics suggest that the most deprived groups have been disproportionately affected by Covid-19. However, once we control for regional differences in mortality rates, Covid-19 deaths in both the most and least deprived groups are also proportional to the all-cause mortality of these groups. However, the groups in between have approximately 10-15% lower Covid-19 deaths compared with their all-cause mortality. We argue that useful lessons about the potential pattern of accelerated deaths from Covid-19 can be drawn from examining deaths from respiratory diseases, especially at different age ranges. We also argue that it is possible to draw useful lessons about volatility spikes in Covid-19 deaths from examining past seasonal flu epidemics. However, there is an important difference. Whereas the spikes in seasonal flu increase with age, our finding that Covid-19 death rates are approximately proportional to all-cause mortality suggests that any spike in Covid-19 mortality in percentage terms would be similar across all age ranges. Finally, we discuss some of the indirect consequences for future mortality of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ measures governments have imposed to contain it. For example, there is evidence that some surviving patients at all ages who needed intensive care could end up with a new impairment, such as organ damage, which will reduce their life expectancy. There is also evidence that many people in lockdown did not seek a timely medical assessment for a potential new illness, such as cancer, or deferred seeking treatment for an existing serious illness, with the consequence that non-Covid-19-related mortality rates could increase in future. Self-isolation during lockdown has contributed to an increase in alcohol and drug consumption by some people which might, in turn, reduce their life expectancy. If another consequence of the pandemic is a recession and/or an acceleration in job automation, resulting in long-term unemployment, then this could lead to so-called ‘deaths of despair’ in future. Other people, by contrast, might permanently change their social behaviour or seek treatments that delay the impact or onset of age-related diseases, one of the primary factors that make people more susceptible to the virus – both of which could have the effect of increasing their life expectancy. It is, however, too early to quantify these possibilities, although it is conceivable that these indirect consequences could have a bigger impact on future average life expectancy than the direct consequences measured by the accelerated deaths model

Microscopic Selection of Fluid Fingering Pattern

We study the issue of the selection of viscous fingering patterns in the limit of small surface tension. Through detailed simulations of anisotropic fingering, we demonstrate conclusively that no selection independent of the small-scale cutoff (macroscopic selection) occurs in this system. Rather, the small-scale cutoff completely controls the pattern, even on short time scales, in accord with the theory of microscopic solvability. We demonstrate that ordered patterns are dynamically selected only for not too small surface tensions. For extremely small surface tensions, the system exhibits chaotic behavior and no regular pattern is realized.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

The Universal Gaussian in Soliton Tails

We show that in a large class of equations, solitons formed from generic initial conditions do not have infinitely long exponential tails, but are truncated by a region of Gaussian decay. This phenomenon makes it possible to treat solitons as localized, individual objects. For the case of the KdV equation, we show how the Gaussian decay emerges in the inverse scattering formalism.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, revtex with eps

Precision Measurement of the 29Si, 33S, and 36Cl Binding Energies

The binding energies of 29Si, 33S, and 36Cl have been measured with a relative uncertainty $< 0.59 \times 10^{-6}$ using a flat-crystal spectrometer. The unique features of these measurements are 1) nearly perfect crystals whose lattice spacing is known in meters, 2) a highly precise angle scale that is derived from first principles, and 3) a gamma-ray measurement facility that is coupled to a high flux reactor with near-core source capability. The binding energy is obtained by measuring all gamma-rays in a cascade scheme connecting the capture and ground states. The measurements require the extension of precision flat-crystal diffraction techniques to the 5 to 6 MeV energy region, a significant precision measurement challenge. The binding energies determined from these gamma-ray measurements are consistent with recent highly accurate atomic mass measurements within a relative uncertainty of $4.3 \times 10^{-7}$. The gamma-ray measurement uncertainties are the dominant contributors to the uncertainty of this consistency test. The measured gamma-ray energies are in agreement with earlier precision gamma-ray measurements.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Velocity selection problem for combined motion of melting and solidification fronts

We discuss a free boundary problem for two moving solid-liquid interfaces that strongly interact via the diffusion field in the liquid layer between them. This problem arises in the context of liquid film migration (LFM) during the partial melting of solid alloys. In the LFM mechanism the system chooses a more efficient kinetic path which is controlled by diffusion in the liquid film, whereas the process with only one melting front would be controlled by the very slow diffusion in the mother solid phase. The relatively weak coherency strain energy is the effective driving force for LFM. As in the classical dendritic growth problems, also in this case an exact family of steady-state solutions with two parabolic fronts and an arbitrary velocity exists if capillary effects are neglected. We develop a velocity selection theory for this problem, including anisotropic surface tension effects. The strong diffusion interaction and coherency strain effects in the solid near the melting front lead to substantial changes compared to classical dendritic growth.Comment: submitted to PR

Influence of the temperature on the depinning transition of driven interfaces

We study the dynamics of a driven interface in a two-dimensional random-field Ising model close to the depinning transition at small but finite temperatures T using Glauber dynamics. A square lattice is considered with an interface initially in (11)-direction. The drift velocity v is analyzed for the first time using finite size scaling at T = 0 and additionally finite temperature scaling close to the depinning transition. In both cases a perfect data collapse is obtained from which we deduce beta = 1/3 for the exponent which determines the dependence of v on the driving field, nu = 1 for the exponent of the correlation length and delta = 5 for the exponent which determines the dependence of v on T.Comment: 5 pages, Latex, Figures included, to appear in Europhys. Let

Two-finger selection theory in the Saffman-Taylor problem

We find that solvability theory selects a set of stationary solutions of the Saffman-Taylor problem with coexistence of two \it unequal \rm fingers advancing with the same velocity but with different relative widths $\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$ and different tip positions. For vanishingly small dimensionless surface tension $d_0$, an infinite discrete set of values of the total filling fraction $\lambda = \lambda_1 + \lambda_2$ and of the relative individual finger width $p=\lambda_1/\lambda_2$ are selected out of a two-parameter continuous degeneracy. They scale as $\lambda-1/2 \sim d_0^{2/3}$ and $|p-1/2| \sim d_0^{1/3}$. The selected values of $\lambda$ differ from those of the single finger case. Explicit approximate expressions for both spectra are given.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Optical Superradiance from Nuclear Spin Environment of Single Photon Emitters

We show that superradiant optical emission can be observed from the polarized nuclear spin ensemble surrounding a single photon emitter such as a single quantum dot (QD) or Nitrogen-Vacancy (NV) center. The superradiant light is emitted under optical pumping conditions and would be observable with realistic experimental parameters.Comment: 4+ pages, 3 figures, considerably rewritten, conclusions unchanged, accepted versio

Simulation and analysis of in vitro DNA evolution

We study theoretically the in vitro evolution of a DNA sequence by binding to a transcription factor. Using a simple model of protein-DNA binding and available binding constants for the Mnt protein, we perform large-scale, realistic simulations of evolution starting from a single DNA sequence. We identify different parameter regimes characterized by distinct evolutionary behaviors. For each regime we find analytical estimates which agree well with simulation results. For small population sizes, the DNA evolutional path is a random walk on a smooth landscape. While for large population sizes, the evolution dynamics can be well described by a mean-field theory. We also study how the details of the DNA-protein interaction affect the evolution.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures. Submitted to PNA

Darbepoetin alfa given every 1 or 2 weeks alleviates anaemia associated with cancer chemotherapy.

In part A of this study, patients were randomised to cohorts receiving darbepoetin alfa at doses of 0.5 to 8.0 m.c.g x kg(-1) x wk(-1) or to a control group receiving epoetin alfa at an initial dose of 150 U x kg(-1) three times weekly. In part B, the cohorts were darbepoetin alfa 3.0 to 9.0 m.c.g x kg(-1) every 2 weeks or epoetin alfa, initial dose 40 000 U x wk(-1). Safety was assessed by adverse events, changes in blood pressure, and formation of antibodies to darbepoetin alfa. Efficacy was assessed by several haematologic endpoints, including change in haemoglobin from baseline. The adverse event profile of darbepoetin alfa was similar to that of epoetin alfa. No relationship between the rapidity of haemoglobin response and any adverse event was observed. No antibodies to darbepoetin alfa were detected. Higher doses of darbepoetin alfa increased the proportion of patients with a haemoglobin response and decreased the median time to response. The overall dose of darbepoetin alfa required to produce a mean increase in haemoglobin does not increase when the dosing interval is increased from 1 to 2 weeks. Therapy with darbepoetin alfa is safe and effective in producing a dose-related increase in haemoglobin levels in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy